The (wins) Matrix

I’ve started pondering what to say in my annual SEC predictions post and I find myself growing more receptive to advanced stats in my analysis.  Something else that’s registering with me is Dave Bartoo’s wins matrix, which you can see here.  The gist of his calculations is very simple:  79.8 percent of all teams have been plus or minus two games of their previous season win total.

Yes, there are always going to be outliers.  Sometimes a team like 2013 Georgia gets crushed by injuries.  And sometimes a team like 2010 Auburn emerges unexpectedly because a unique talent like Cam Newton.  (There’s also the Malzahn rabbit’s foot that comes and goes.)  But in any given year, essentially four out of every five teams’ win totals are going to putter along fairly consistently from the season before.

If you want to see how Dave’s math projects for all P5 teams this season, here you go.