August 31, 2015 · 12:28 PM

Convergence

The last minute tweaking in place, both ESPN’s FPI and Bill Connelly’s S&P+ projections slot the Dawgs fifth in the country, with ESPN showing Georgia as one of only four teams hitting double digits in wins before the postseason.

18 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

18 responses to “Convergence”

  1. Rick
    August 31, 2015 at 1:32 PM

    Look at Tech at #3 offense, and they were ready to get rid of Johnson a year ago. Idiots. He is their best shot by far at winning, and will likely get 1/3rd of the games against us over the long haul.

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    • AthensHomerDawg
      August 31, 2015 at 2:35 PM

      “See Paul. See Paul run.” Lol. That HS offense ain’t winning a third of the time against the Dawgs. CMR is 7-0 at CMR Field against the genius Fish Fry. Nerds are still behind Georgia Southern in total O and rushing O in CFBSTATS.
      Methinks your at the wrong blog. Nice try. 😉

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      • Rick
        August 31, 2015 at 4:12 PM

        Wow, you got me, colombo. Clearly a tech fan would troll by predicting 67% losses to a hated rival.

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        • AthensHomerDawg
          August 31, 2015 at 5:09 PM

          “He is their best shot by far at winning, and will likely get 1/3rd of the games against us over the long haul.”
          Ok Dumbo . My bad . Clearly you’re not a nerd. You predicted an increase to 1/3 up from 2 of 8. I’ll let you do the math. Point being… it ain’t happening. Turn in you Dawg gear. And you should have never mumbled that.
          Just sayin’

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  2. jabo052
    August 31, 2015 at 2:47 PM

    I don’t get it. So many polls have us winning the East and even winning the SEC, YET, nearly every damn talking head and nearly every damn column, with people actually giving their opinion, down grade us at QB, DL, LB WR, coaching, etc. Hell, even Chubb is now the 4th or 5th bet RB in the country. What gives?? I’m sick and tired of being sick and tired!

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    • Cojones
      August 31, 2015 at 3:46 PM

      You noticed Chubb slipping every day as well, eh? Part of it is the ESPN factor that puts Fournette back up since they saw him finally stop making them look like chumps during his last three games where he gained about 65% of his yards for the year. Before those games he made them look like shit.
      The push to publicize Big10 also factored in by publicizing Ezekial(?) of tOSU a little more plus Boykin is playing yet another position(QB) after playing well at WR and on D(I think). That makes his versatility outweigh the RB competition. We will see how he does.
      Anyway, they are putting all their eggs in one basket by Dawgrading UGA because the odds for us to win the CFB Championship are low and they project that success necessary to promote the Heisman candidate. It’s just another hurdle they are selling to the fans while covering their asses.

      They have made me hardcore about Georgia winning the NC and pulling Chubb (who ironically pulls the team) up to factor RB into the Heisman during the “spread factor” years. I hope we stomp the shit out of everyone.

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    • McTyre
      August 31, 2015 at 3:55 PM

      Yes, I’m outraged at UT and Aub getting attention more preseason hype from media. Such hype usually does wonders for the concentration levels of 18-20-year old man children.

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  3. Cojones
    August 31, 2015 at 3:27 PM

    I’m going to keep this in mind during the season and for picks adjustments.

    The plateaus are the most telling to me in both S&P+ and FPI. Georgia plateaus next below OSU in both with only one intervention between by Bama in S+P. What I’m seeing is that we are in the Choose Four mix – solidly. Our F/+ projections went from 7th to first preseason 3rd to final preseason 5th (average between the two). Understandable. In the FPI we are in it with Bay, TCU and LSU while in the S&P+ we are in it with Ole Miss and Ore after Bama. The differences between the teams in those plateaux leads me to believe we come out as the 3rd ranked team in the country (thought I’d throw that in as a teaser). The 2nd ranked team is up for grabs and will be sorted during the season.

    If you graph the differences between teams in each chart side-by-side, you get a rather simplistic view of what the top 20 looks like with teams hitting grouped plateaus that give you a view of the forest. Senator, you have outdone yourself by showing these comparisons. Of course, the reply is be late because I had to go back to study hall to place these stats into perspective and that takes time for me and the willingness to strain the patience of curiosity.

    Several observations:
    1. Tenn is much higher than I expected (since recruiting was factored least). Maybe there is a core strength there that I’ve been unwilling to admit.
    2. FSU is much lower than I had them in my mind.
    3. Chubbs stats figures heavily in here (and amazingly, it seems that Mason’s does as well with help from our WRs [especially Conley] )
    4. Methinks that some pundits may have cheated by reading ahead of publication.

    By examining these projections and comparing several ways, my thermometer just went back up to delusional level. Love it.

    Audit Dawg, you and a few other statisticians need to bring me back to earth.

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  4. ASEF
    August 31, 2015 at 4:04 PM

    LSU? Tops in the SEC?

    Their proven DC is gone. That’s the only thing you could count on in that program over the past few years. I think they completely derail.

    I think Alabama and Georgia play twice this year. I think both games come down to which QB is forced furthest from his comfort zone. And that probably comes down to key injuries around said QBs.

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    • Cojones
      August 31, 2015 at 5:45 PM

      My neighbor watches ESPN and informed me over a patio beer today that Les Miles was feeling bad and they sent him to the hospital. That is the only factor that will hurt LSU this year since they actually have a D coach who replaced Chavis. Really! And Chavis has to start the D anew with his system at TA&M. Call it a flush, otherwise run Chavis as VP on the Republican ticket. Donald is going to need someone so why not the most perfect person in America.

      You’ve been watching too much ESPN hype.

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  5. JCDAWG83
    August 31, 2015 at 4:34 PM

    You know what football is?

    It’s getting off blocks and tackling. It’s running real fast quick as you can. It’s about HEART!

    And I’ll tell you what it ain’t:

    It ain’t numbers and digits!!

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    • Cojones
      August 31, 2015 at 5:58 PM

      Admittedly, numbers ain’t a panacea for calling the shots, but it’s better than the guessing game that egos put forth on the airwaves. So I guess you don’t accept Global Warming either since it relies on stats.

      The key word here is “projections” vs ” my opinion is better than your opinion”. It’s an attempt to correlate opinion based on Science. That’s all. Scientists like that shit, find it very interesting and it’s called “fun” when applied to a fan-motivated opinion..

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    • RocketDawg
      August 31, 2015 at 6:00 PM

      Thank you Vince Lombardi

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  6. AusDawg85
    August 31, 2015 at 6:29 PM

    I haza sad about UGA not getting any HERBIE AWARDS!!

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  7. Normaltown Mike
    August 31, 2015 at 7:36 PM

    Bill Connolly twerking? Gross

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