Performance and the perception gap

As I suspected, the final preseason F/+ numbers – the marriage of Bill Connelly’s and Brian Fremeau’s advanced stats metrics – came out extremely favorably for Georgia, in this case, fourth.  That’s quite a bit higher than the Dawgs find themselves in the AP’s preseason rankings.  Bill wonders why.

Georgia (F/+ No. 4, AP No. 9)

Why the numbers like the Dawgs: Georgia is consistently good; the Dawgs have finished 14th or better in F/+ for four consecutive years and were fourth last season. They return maybe the best running back in college football (Nick Chubb), a well-seasoned offensive line, and an active, super-athletic back eight on defense. Mark Richt recruits well and wins 10 games each year when the injury bug isn’t particularly cruel. From the perspective of recent performance and returning talent, they are easily the surest bet in the SEC East.

Why the media doesn’t (as much): They dropped the ball last year, laying one of the season’s biggest eggs in a blowout loss to Florida and blowing the SEC East title (to Missouri, which the Dawgs beat by 34 points on the road) in the process. They struggled defending powerful run games last year and must now replace three linemen. And yes, they have a new quarterback.

One more thing: when Richt lost offensive coordinator Mike Bobo to the head coaching job at Colorado State, he replaced him with Brian Schottenheimer. When fans (in this case, those of the St. Louis Rams) lose their offensive coordinator and celebrate wildly, that’s a scary sign.

Of course, all Schottenheimer has to tell his new quarterback is, “Put the ball in Chubb’s (or his awesome backup’s) belly.”

For five of the six teams here, part of the difference between perception and projection might come because of the quarterback position. It’s interesting, and it makes sense, as simply using returning starters doesn’t give extra weight to the quarterback position.

But if everyone expects Georgia to take a heavy reliance on Chubb & Company to lighten the load on Lambert, you’d think that last point wouldn’t factor so much into perception, wouldn’t you?

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Again with the bulldog puppies?

Hope this works out better than the last time we saw this prop.

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Malcolm Mitchell’s advice to (some of) Dawgnation

Chill, people.

Georgia senior receiver Malcolm Mitchell has played in two SEC championship games. He was the intended receiver of the ill-fated final play of the 2012 loss to Alabama. He knows how close it can be.

So he shakes his head at the idea that this year is championship-or-bust.

“It’s always funny how the people who don’t play tell us what it’s time for,” Mitchell said, chuckling. “But we know what needs to be done. And it’s our job to get it done. And if you’re part of the Bulldog Nation, you’ll let us get that job done, and just be there beside us as we do it so we can all reap the benefits from it.”

Fabris Pool reminder

For those of you who have signed up but not made your selections yet, those picks aren’t going to choose themselves.

And for those of you want to play but haven’t enrolled, there’s still time.  Click here to sign up.

So… what do you hope/expect to see tomorrow?

The expect part is pretty obvious.  If you need details, here’s a summary.

For me, the hope part is simple.  While I know there will be some hiccups in the opener – given the new QB, center and offensive coordinator, it would be unexpected if there weren’t – what I really want to see from the coaches and the players is a program that’s growing into one that looks like it knows how to take care of business consistently.  For the UL-M game, that means taking control of the game early, not letting the Warhawks a chance to climb back in and using the second half to rest starters and get key (read:  green) reserves a decent chance to get their feet wet.

Do that, and I won’t care what the margin of victory is.  (Not that I expect the Dawgs to cover 35.5, anyway.)

What say you?

“The bottom line is we need help.”

I hate to keep saying it, but the talent base coming out of 2013 wasn’t where it needed to be.  The coaches realized it (h/t Jeremy Pruitt) and stepped up recruiting as a result, but there’s a price to be paid now.

On the depth chart provided to the media Tuesday, Georgia listed three starting receivers and four starting defensive backs. All seven of their backups were true freshmen.  [Emphasis added.]

The soft early schedule comes in handy.  But it sure would be nice if the injury bug stayed away.

For sure, Georgia’s gonna get his best shot.

Is it safe to presume that thought was on the mind of every Dawg fan who watched South Carolina’s play last night?

Between the Coxian brain farts from North Carolina’s Marquise “I knew better than to do that” Williams, who managed two end zone interceptions, and Larry Fedora’s Mike Bobo impersonation by choosing to throw the ball on his team’s last scoring drive instead of using a running back who was blowing up the Gamecock defense (“I have to go back and look at the calls of what we were doing down there” – gee, you think?), North Carolina was just generous enough to let Spurrier’s team escape with a win.

“We’re not strutting out of here like we’re hot stuff, that’s for sure,” Spurrier said.

Anchor down.

Thanks a lot, Vanderbilt.

Vanderbilt dropped its opener at home against Western Kentucky on Thursday night in an ugly 14-12 game.

As such, the Hilltoppers became the first Conference USA team to beat an SEC opponent since 2010, when UCF took down Georgia by an equally-ugly score of 10-6 in the Liberty Bowl.

Entering Thursday, the SEC had 27 consecutive wins over Conference USA opponents since the Bulldogs’ loss in 2010.

It’s always nice to be reminded of the good times.