A big ass number

You may have noticed Georgia is a rather sizeable favorite this Saturday.  Historically speaking, that’s both good news and bad.

For South Carolina, being an underdog this large is relatively uncharted territory. Last season, the Gamecocks were two-touchdown underdogs at Auburn, but before that game, the last time they were catching double-digits on the road was 2009 against Alabama! Overall, Spurrier has been a double-digit road underdog eight times in his tenure at Columbia. He is 6-2 against the number… Georgia fans, lest you worry too much about a Gamecock win, while he is 6-2 versus the spread as a double-digit road underdog, Spurrier’s teams have won outright just once.

Like I said, I’ll be more than satisfied with a one-point win against the ‘Cocks.  ‘Course, if the Dawgs want to cover, it’s not like I’ll complain.

29 Comments

Filed under 'Cock Envy, Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

29 responses to “A big ass number

  1. I honestly don’t get how the number is that big. On offense, they have legitimate weapons at RB, WR, TE and a really good OT and C. Former walk-on or not, Orth doesn’t look too bad to me. Not sure about their D but it’s not like our passing game looks like much of a threat, which really simplifies a defensive gameplan. Not that stopping Chubb and co is easy but it’s significantly easier if we pose no threat in the passing game. I don’t gamble but, even if I did, there is no way I could justify taking us to cover.

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  2. Kobby

    Lambert having a clean game will likely earn us the W. There will be lots of gnashing of teeth afterwards that we lack an air attack but limiting turnovers and making a few plays when things get tight in the box. Do that and by gawd it might be one more nail in the Spurrier coffin.

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  3. 92 grad

    Some of you number wizards out there might know the answer: what’s the percentage of Georgia covering the points when favored?

    Why? I would assume that over a 10 year span, CMR would have a less than 30% win record using the spread. If I were a gambler, I would rarely ever pick Georgia to cover any spread when favored.

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    • Uglydawg

      92…I agree, but a lot of that is CMR not interested in style points and certainly not bowing to the spread fixers. When he has a comfortable lead, he goes conservative..or “takes his foot off of the gas” as some on here describe it. He’s not into humiliating other teams (unless they really deserve it). He’s not a typical coach at all in this particular regard. In some ways that’s very admirible of him, and in some ways it’s concerning to some of us. What’s more telling is if he covers the spread against non-cupcakes and if the game was close…for instance, this week. He should lay awake at night thinking of ways to score 100 on South Carolina.
      But he probably wont beat the spread.

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    • TXBaller

      42-46-2 last ten years as a home/road fav ATS.

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      • TXBaller

        Richt 61-65-5 ATS last ten years overall. 92, you can flip a coin on UGA ATS. In Vegas life, UGA is never a team to consistently bet on or against.

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    • DawgPhan

      Why would you even have to ask this question? It’s the spread and it is vegas. Every coach in the country is probably somewhere between 45-55% against the spread and it is probably tighter than that.

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  4. Macallanlover

    This is likely to be Steve’s last trip to Sanford unless he buys tickets to watch the Dawgs at some point down the road. I think we can, and likely will, beat them by 17 but I am not betting it. I did notice on some betting sites about 68% of the bets so far are on the Cocks +15-17 points. CBS Expert Picks has 4 going with the points and three with the Dawgs. All seven pickers have the Dawgs straight up.

    And I think that is the point, UGA will win this game, the question we seem to argue about is “how pretty?” and “can we get more bells and whistles with that?” This team is going to explode on someone, it just might be the Cocks in a juiced up environment. The revenge fucks for last year’s losses start this Saturday.

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    • Mayor

      I am torn by two conflicting thoughts: (1) I don’t really care what the score is–just win the damn game; and (2) I really would love to see the Dawgs lay 50 or more on ’em.

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  5. Scorpio Jones, III

    The intangibles: How good is Vandy’s D? And how good is South Carolina’s?, then, how good is Kentucky?

    Don’t look at the accountants’ flow charts of the game, look at the game.

    Kentucky looks pretty good to me. Vandy’s defense looks pretty good to me.
    South Carolina lost their starting quarterback causing the whole offensive game management plan to come apart…and they still almost came back on the Cats.

    As to the betting stats? There is, apparently, one born every second. These are people who bet money on college football, and you want to give meaning to that?

    Spurrier has had some of the Kentucky game and a week to get Perry Orth settled in to the offense, you think Spurrier is competent, even in his dotage, to figure out how to best use what this kid can do?

    If Pruitt vs Spurrier does not make you itch, you may have lost sensation in some important spots.

    Here’s a number that worries the shit outa me….33 yards. And another…2 (missed field goals)

    Mediocre kicking makes games that could be blowouts into nail-biters.

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    • CannonDawg

      I tend to agree with you, Scorp. I’m not as enthusiastic about a blowout in this one, but that’s not to say I wouldn’t welcome it. The reality is that the coach on the other side is not Charlie Weis but Steve friggin’ Spurrier, who has plenty of reason (and need) to win this football game. He’s beaten us with lesser teams before, and he’ll throw everything he has at us. I just want to get out of this one with a W. I don’t care about the margin

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  6. JCDAWG83

    Folks need to make up their minds. When I’ve pointed out our wtf losses to teams we were heavily favored over; I’m told that the betting lines have nothing to do with how the game should actually work out, but are to balance the bets and nothing more. Now, the huge line is pointed to as some sign that we are much better than SC and should win easily. Some of you need to make up your minds how you want this to be.

    I’ll be happy with a one point win, I’ll be happier with a win so lopsided that Spurrier quits in his post game presser.

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  7. Macallanlover

    No respect for betting numbers Scorp? Those are the most reliable numbers of all. Whether you place a bet or not, it is THE way to get past the bluster of fans who say “we’ll crush you guys”. Just say, we will take the wives to dinner and loser pays, then you will negotiate to a true number. That is all the betting line is, a fair number determined by what people are willing to back up with something that is meaningful meaningful to them. The moneyline bets take the spread out and says ” I will bet you 60 cows to one that UGA wins.” It is a better way than meaningless bravado so it does serve a purpose whether you place a bet, or not. I probably won’t bet this game at 17 points but I think there is about a 2 TD difference given what we have seen. I hope UGA explodes and beats them by 30, and that is as possible as them winning outright, doesn’t mean both cannot happen.

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    • Scorpio Jones, III

      Mac I don’t disagree with anything you say, and I understand what you mean.

      It is against my religion to bet on college football games, so that colors my attitude about the numbers.

      Its just my own, obviously futile, effort to maintain the purity of the game…fwiw, I view drinking at a football game like drinking in church.

      After the game? well, a good single malt helps.

      Just because the windmills usually win does not mean you should stop swatting at them, ya know? 🙂

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  8. The Alabama team that came in to Sanford Stadium is a team with highly ranked OL and DL. It has no problem with the QB nor significant injuries. And that Alabama team is in quite different in that sense from this SC team coming in this Saturday.

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  9. I do not think that SC team in 2009 has a lot of injuries compared to this SC team coming in at Sanford.

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    • Cojones

      Not as bad as ND’s. QB, TE, DT and RB first stringers can hurt like hell. We know, since UGA has gone through that.

      Spurrier losing his starter doesn’t mean that the second guy won’t flatten your ass with shots up the middle.

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  10. PTC DAWG

    Line has gone up, big money coming in on UGA to cover. Vegas moving the line to even the gambling.

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  11. SouthGaDawg

    If i just happened to be out in the desert this week, the only bets on this one I’d make would be the under on total points and the under on Chubb’s total rushing yardage. That being said, I hope I’m wrong on both…

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