“The first step to beating Georgia is forcing the Dawgs into passing downs”

So observes Bill Connelly in his preview of Georgia’s offense.

To which I can only respond, yeah, but…  It’s a lot weirder than that.

Parrish Walton notes that Lambert’s had a complete meltdown throwing the ball on third down.

To which I can only respond, yeah, but…  It’s a lot weirder than that.

If you look at Lambert’s situational stats (go, Marty!), I’m not sure you’ll ever see another Georgia quarterback with anything like Lambert’s third down numbers.  I know I haven’t.

  • 3rd Down, 4-6 To Go:  0-7, 0 yards, 0 rating
  • 3rd Down, 7-9 To Go:  2-10, 12 yards, 30.08 rating

Okay, that stinks on ice.  The numbers on third and even longer must be incredibly horrific… er, what?

  • 3rd Down, 10+ To Go:  12-17, 165 yards, 152.12 rating.

Seriously, how is that even possible for the same person?

By the way, as you review Lambert’s stats, check out his work on first down.  If I’m Schottenheimer, it’s time to be thinking about calling plays to put my quarterback in the places he’s more comfortable throwing.

65 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

65 responses to ““The first step to beating Georgia is forcing the Dawgs into passing downs”

  1. Rocket Dawg

    This is why the SC game plan was the absolute perfect scenario for Lambert. Short high percentage passes on 1st down to get into a rhythm and make 2nd and the rare 3rd down in that game manageable. Why we haven’t done more of this is baffling to me.

    Let’s hope we see that Lambert between the Hedges on Saturday and not the one from the last two weeks.

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    • The other Doug

      Teams are playing press coverage and taking away the short throws.

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      • Biggus Rickus

        It’ll be interesting to see if Missouri does that. It’s not their normal style, but they may adapt based on what defenses have done to Georgia the last two weeks.

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  2. JT (the other one)

    Because he is better at throwing the long ball.

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  3. The other Doug

    I can’t tell you why, but Lambert seems to throw a good deep ball when it’s his only option. The last few minutes of the Tennessee game were full of solid throws.

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  4. Spike

    Or try Bauta..

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    • Please give up on the Bauta talk. He’s not playing in a meaningful situation this year unless there’s been a bad run of injuries at the QB position.

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      • Spike

        Why should I “give up”? Especially after some of the QB play we have seen this year. What about Ramsey? Shall I “give up’ talking about him? He hasn’t had a lot of meaningful situations either. What he has had were nothing special. Lots of other players have not had meaningful situations either, but lots of folks comment on them without being told to “give up” talking about them. If there is a bad run of injuries( God forbid)or the others don’t produce and Bauta gets in, may I talk about him then? My comment was not disrespectful to anyone, was not personal or insulting to anyone as you have rightfully requested. I’ve certainly seen a lot worse things on here than my three word comment without them being told to “give up” the talk. Further, it wasn’t even directed at you at all. It was just a comment on the article.

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        • Napoleon BonerFart

          I’m with you Spike. Richt should start Bauta against Mizzou. And if we lose that game, he should start Vaughn the next. And if he doesn’t perform, let Sony Michel play QB. Eventually, we’ll accidentally stumble upon a kid who can play QB.

          I mean, it’s not like Richt has ever proven that he’s halfway decent and recognizing and developing QB talent.

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          • Spike

            Bonerfart.. I didn’t say he should start. He should be given a chance at some point given the QB play of late. If Lambert starts, and Ramsey gets play time, and Mizzou wins, will you still be so sarcastic? What do you suggest then? Keep Lambert as the starter? Yes, I’d say start Bauta, Vaughn, Thompson or anyone else who can get the job done. You accidently were about right when you described Richt “halfway decent” at recognizing and developing QB talent. Recall Joe Cox? Joe T III? Besides, Fart, which seems appropriate, who cut you in on this conversation with the Senator and me?

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        • I didn’t think you were being disrespectful at all. It’s just if Faton hasn’t gotten a meaningful snap by now, that, plus his demotion to third-string, should be a pretty good indication that your hope is a lost cause.

          Sorry if that came off the wrong way.

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          • Spike

            Fair enough, Senator. All I am simply suggesting is, given the play of Lambert in the last two games overall, and Ramsey’s, why not at least give Bauta a shot at some point? He doesn’t even get in for any mop up time against cup cakes. I am not suggesting Richt et al don’t know what they are doing, and I don’t go to practice and all this other BS, I’m just asking why not try him at some point in a game? Perhaps this is a lost cause. So, too, may be this season. I certainly hope not. Thanks for letting me add my humble two cents. Nobody wants the Dawgs to succeed more than I!

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            • Cousin Eddie

              During the Bama game we saw why Lambert was moved ahead of Ramsey, I am afraid of what Bauta will do being he was moved behind Ramsey.

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    • 69Chevy

      Richt can’t win by putting in Bauta, if Bauta fails, Richt loses, if Bauta succeeds, Richt’s called an idiot, so he can’t risk a lose/lose with Bauta. It’s not happening. Bauta will not start unless Lambert and Ramsey have season ending injuries.

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  5. Biggus Rickus

    I saw that when I was looking through numbers yesterday, and it is baffling to me how he is so bad at throwing underneath. To some extent, defenses have been sitting on short routes in short and medium situations, but still.

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  6. JAX

    Where are the TE’s? You know, Rome and Blazovich. They are big targets and can get 7-15 yards upfield quickly.

    Am I missing something?

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    • Ginny

      My guess would be since the o-line is struggling some that they are blocking.

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    • AlphaDawg

      Just my casual observation: They are playing, I noticed several plays last week with us running a single back set with a TE split out wide. I haven’t noticed many plays (run or pass) using the traditional 6 man front. The few I do recall were the traditional power I with a FB. These seemed to be effective.

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  7. Double Dawg

    If you may remember, our good friend David Hale tweeted similar numbers back in August regarding Lambert when he was named starter. This was happening at UVA as well. I remember that most of his UVA interceptions were also resulting on 3rd and short.

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  8. BowlDawg

    So….. one of the major complaints with the Tennessee game was how often we were playing behind the chains, killing drives….. now, to make sure that doesn’t happen we need to scheme more to Lambert’s strengths….. yet….. “3rd and 10+” was statistically where Lambert wass the most efficient….. so logically that means….. wait….. can you repeat the question?…..

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    • Like I said, it’s just weird.

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    • 69Chevy

      If you cherry pick, you isolate games, you can weird stuff. Even Murray, look at UF game in 12′ or LSU in 11′. Nothing weird, everybody has 1-2 bad games. Lambert really doesn’t have NFL caliber receivers. These guys will not be playing on Sundays, where AM had a fleet of 5.

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      • @gatriguy

        Right, bc UT ’15 has a comparable defense to ’11 LSU and ’12 UF. Two of the best 2 or 4 defenses we’ve faced during Richt’s tenure.

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  9. 3rd and +10? We got them RIGHT where we want them.

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  10. It’s clear Schotty and Richt have to change their approach at times, but I’m not sure how much they can do to fix Lambert not being able to go through progressions.

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    • AlphaDawg

      He also seem very reluctant to throw into tight windows. Which is both a good and bad thing.

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    • 69Chevy

      I wouldn’t try to ‘fix’ a guy who’s in the top 15 nationally in passing efficiency and yards per pass. But we’re different.

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      • Against Bama/Vandy/Tenn he has an average QB rating of 100.99, which would be 119th in the country.

        So you were saying what, again?

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        • 69Chevy

          Got ya. Murray was great against UF & USC in 12′ too. Sure, cherry pickin is fun isn’t it.

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          • Are we going to compare this year’s Vandy and Tenn teams to those two teams from 2012? Can you not see how that doesn’t make any sense?

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            • 69Chevy

              Want to compare NFL quality receivers Murray vs Lambert, AJ Green vs McKenzie?

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              • AJ Green wasn’t on the 2012 team. Lambert is 2/17 on third down and 4-9 yards. 2/17!! You don’t think that needs to be fixed? You’re cool with that?

                Yes, he looked great against South Carolina. But South Carolina is the worst team in the SEC and this year’s version might be the worse since the 0-11 year back with Holtz. And now that Chubb is lost UGA will get press coverage from every team it sees from here on out. And unless Schotty/Richt can scheme ways of getting South Carolina-like soft coverage, I don’t see why someone would think Lambert will be able to do much better than he did against Tenn, which boiled down to the deep ball.

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          • The other Doug

            It appears that Bama showed how you stop Lambert. I guess we can hope that some of the DCs we face are morons, but perhaps we need a plan B.

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      • @gatriguy

        This is literally the stupidest ducking argument I’ve ever read. If you can’t honestly see that Lambert is not as good as Aaron or as effiecient as Mason, then I don’t know what to say.

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  11. edawg

    Lambert has a 158.82 passer rating.

    This is better than:
    Stafford, 2008
    Cox 2009
    Murray, 2010, 2011, 2013
    Mason 2014

    Lambert is completing 62.1
    This is better than:
    Stafford, 2008
    Cox, 2009,
    Murray 2010, 2011

    Lambert has only thrown 1 interception in 6 games.
    Better than any Qb including Stafford, Cox, Murray, Mason.

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    • Biggus Rickus

      He has three extremely efficient games against the three worst defenses Georgia’s played, two extremely inefficient games against the two good defenses and one pretty good game against the one mediocre defense they’ve played so far.

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      • 69Chevy

        Lambert, on 3rd and 10+, is No 12 in the nation in accuracy, completing 70%. So much for the theory he can’t throw down the field.

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        • Biggus Rickus

          I’m not really arguing for or against him, just adding some context. He does some things well and some things not so well. I don’t think he can carry the team on his back, but if the defense had lived up to its billing, the team would be 5-1 right now.

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          • 69Chevy

            Lambert doesn’t have NFL receivers like Marlon Brown & AJ Green & Durham & King & Orson, etc. Mitchell is the only NFL receiver. That’s a bigger problem.

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            • Biggus Rickus

              AJ Green played for part of one of Murray’s years. Marlon Brown’s one good Georgia season was cut short by an injury. Durham and King got a cup of coffee in the NFL, and Durham was also only there for Murray’s first season. He spent the second half of 2013 throwing to Rantavious Wooten as a primary receiver. The only NFL guy on that roster was Conley. Also, if at the end of the season Lambert has a QB rating even approaching 150, I’ll be amazed.

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            • The other Doug

              Lambert also has the better OL and RBs.

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            • Cousin Eddie

              So you are content with his performance and the direction of the offense? I want the kid to succeed but I believe he is having issues with Mechanics, Confidence and Pressure. He has had open guys but takes off running or throws it away or just seems to panic before making his reads. If he ever gets pressure just once he is shot the remainder of the game, he doesn’t want to take a hit (not that I would either).

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            • bigdoug72

              I don’t see AJ Green dropping that beautifully thrown long pass that Reggie “Stonehands” Davis dropped. Joking. Reggie had a great game. Still, AJ doesn’t drop that one. That’s the game winner. Then go for 2 and you’re 5-1 in the top 10.

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  12. Brandon

    I feel these numbers are a little deceiving. 12 completions for 165 yds = 13.75 yds/completion. Sure we’ve converted a few of these but I think the high % is more due to Defenses playing off on 3rd and long and forcing him to throw the underneath route that is still tackled short of the first down on most occasions.

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    • Brandon

      Where as on 3rd and short they press and throw off the short timing routes, Lambert panics, and throws the ball 5 feet behind or at the feet of his target

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    • Biggus Rickus

      5 of the 12 completions went for a first down, which is a better than average rate based on my quick perusal of stats for top rated passers so far this year.

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  13. 69Chevy

    If you want to cherry pick, here’s some fun stuff:

    On 1st down, Lambert is at 230 passing rating. This is miles better than any Qb at Georgia including Stafford & Murray.

    Lambert’s passing rating, is better than Stafford or Murray, with the exception of 2012.

    Lambert’s number of interceptions after 6 games is much lower than Stafford or Murray’s.

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    • @gatriguy

      You do understand sample size and outliers, no? Let that South Carolina game get diluted some more and get back to me

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  14. DawgOnIt

    He is 12 of 17 on 10+, but only 5 of them went for 1st downs (29% conv. rate). The issue outside of his comp. % of 4-6 yds, is that the Dawgs have already faced almost as many 10+ 3rd downs as all of 2014.
    % of overall 3rd down attempts
    2014: 3rd & 1-3 was 36%; 10+ was 19% of all 3d attempts (pass/rush)
    2015: 3rd & 1-3 is only 17.5%; 10+ is 38% of all 3d attempts (pass/rush)
    3rd down Conversion %
    2014: 3rd & 1-3 yds: 57% conv. rate; 10+ had a 32% conv. rate
    2015: 3rd & 1-3 yds: 64% conv. rate; 10+ yds: 33% conv. rate
    When you take a big portion of your attempts in a high conversion distance and transfer those percentage points almost exactly to a lower conversion distance….you have a a little bit of a conversion problem.
    *I based my stats on 2014 minus the bowl game so that it was 12 games against 6 and to cut out a Todd Grantham defense that obviously would pad all offensive stats against the statistical norm.

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    • I appreciate the conversion information, but that still leaves the big question of how someone could whiff on all those short yardage completions and then hit most of the throws for the longer plays.

      BTW, compare his conversion rate on those throws this year with his completion rate on 3rd and mid throws in 2014.

      He’s just in a weird place on third down, it seems.

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  15. W Cobb Dawg

    Lambert & Schotty are getting a disproportionate share of the blame. The 2 losses were a total team effort. We choked on O, STs, D and coaching.

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    • 69Chevy

      Yep, gave up 38 points per game in the 2 losses, not going to be enough.

      The offense, rushing offense is No 5 nationally in rush per carry average.

      Pass offense is top 20 at 8.7 yards per attempt.

      Defense is ranked No 36 in rush yards per attempt, and No 45 in pass yards per attempt.

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  16. Will Trane

    Bauta will have his Les Miles play call used somewhere this year. Maybe.
    Field position for QB’s. It is little space, generally 3 yds by 3 yds behind the line of scrimmage directly behind the center. Do not move out of it.
    The best thing about Lambert, he plays. Assures a highly rated QB comes in for next year.
    But that does not matter with the HC and OC, both from prior experienced in highly used passing attacks at FSU and UF. Just do not remember SOS splitting out his TEs and Bobbie B not having his OC/CMR not use twin TB , each one to side of a QB in shotgun. Re latter, by the time the QB got the ball from center each one had already flared the LOS for a pass. Just wondering how that holds rush ends and LBs.
    Consistent QB play. Hard to do if your top TB goes out, your wide receivers can not get separation on short routes or wrong angle taken, or ball batted down, and the defense sees the same package each week with no variation on the play.
    Deep ball UT…one incomplete in end zone on a 3rd and 4 inside the 30, and another dropped at the goal line. But then again UT had that too. And Bama, some how they get their receivers wide open on the deep ball.
    But just maybe the Dawgs passing attack will resemble Ole Miss, tipped ball results in TDs, they have two go their way.

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  17. Comin' Down The Track

    In a bunker somewhere in northern Colorado, Mike Bobo chuckles to himself…

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  18. J.G.

    In honor of Lambert’s happy feet, which surely will be on display again this Saturday…

    ♫ Happy feet are here again
    So let’s sing a song of drear again
    Happy feet are here again
    Altogether shout it now
    There’s no one
    Who can doubt it now
    So let’s tell the world about it now
    Happy feet are here again
    Your screens and slants and hitches are gone
    There’ll be no more from now on
    From now on…
    Happy feet are here again
    So, let’s sing a song of drear again
    Sad times
    Sad nights
    Happy feet
    Are here again! ♫

    Like

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