Listen, I know what happened last year. You know what happened last year. Georgia knows what happened last year. Florida knows what happened last year.
“I’m sure they’ll look at the film from a year ago and see what happened,” Richt said. “There was enough success to take a look. Same quarterback. The game plan worked pretty good.”
Florida ran the ball on 60 of 66 offensive plays.
It wasn’t too complicated, Gators receiver Brandon Powell told reporters Monday.
“Last year we ran like two plays the whole game and they worked,” he said. “Two power plays and they worked the whole game.”
The obvious retort to which is that was last year.
Again, I don’t know what will be in the heads of those wearing red this Saturday, but statistically speaking there’s a pretty solid case that can be made for Georgia showing up.
Take a look at yards per play against SEC teams, for starters. Georgia, with Lambert, Schottenheimer and whomever else you want to point accusatory fingers at, is second in the conference at 6.05 ypp. The resurgent Gator offense is twelfth. Florida is averaging under five yards per snap.
Ah, you say, but the defense… that’s where they have them.
Not so fast, bruh. Defensive yards per play in SEC games? Georgia ranks ahead of Florida there, too, although it’s much closer.
So where to find the reason Florida seems to have it more together? Welp, take a look at turnover margin in conference games. The Gators top the SEC, at +8. By comparison, Georgia is a mere +1. The difference is that Florida’s offense has done a better job of protecting the ball than has Georgia’s.
The other area that really favors Florida is red zone touchdown conversions. The Gators punch it in at better than a 70% clip when they get inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. Georgia converts at barely more than half that rate.
Can Georgia do a decent job of keeping Florida between the twenties? Can the Dawgs protect the ball? If so, there’s no reason to think they can’t make a game of it.
Get The Picture 
I actually am starting to think that UGA comes to play this weekend, but our lack of Chubb (sorry, Marshall is not breaking any tackles) and poor OL and QB play will be too much to overcome. We’ll move the ball like we did against Mizzou, and then we’ll stall like we did against Mizzou. I hope I’m wrong. Of those three weaknesses, good OL play can compensate enough to produce some offensive touchdowns, but I haven’t seen anything recently to convince me that’s going to happen. But there’s a reason why they play the game and i watch it on TV. Go Dawgs!
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We were much better statistically last year. However, all it takes is around 2 plays to beat UGA. That’s pretty damn embarrassing and I can’t believe I just read that.
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I know the post wasn’t fully about this, but I really couldn’t get past that line about “two plays”… jeebus.
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There’s a reason that game soured me on Richt. It also made me seriously doubt that Pruitt was a good hire.
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BR, you shouldn’t make decisions based on one game. Too small a sample size. What soured me on CMR was the series of end of game screw-ups that we experienced over the years (particularly 2009 and 2010, but before and later also) that snatched defeat from the jaws of victory over and over again. I have convinced myself now (some may say deluded myself) into believing that those were really Bobo. I await evidence this season to either confirm or refute my supposition. Or is that actually “suppository?” One or the other, I suppose. 🙂
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You do realize we have Sony still? He is not as big as Chubb but I think he will do.
Oline play is the key to this game.If they can open some holes for Sony and give Lambert time to throw just enough to keep the Turds honest we have a chance.
I think that the Defense has finally figured it out in regard to stopping the power run. Big Trent is stopping up the middle which leaves the LB’s free to roam and make plays.
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I know we have Sony, but he came out every drive against Mizzou. If he can play a whole drive, that’s a different story.
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I think he was ill.
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For Sony to be most effective, we need to get him out in space. We haven’t done a good job of that since losing Chubb.
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He was hurt.
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I am & will continue to be an Avid Dawg Fan after we play the_____ Gators.
I am a lifelong Gator Hater. However, I see no way the Dawgs can win.
They will not be able to contain Treon. That Is not on the Coaches.
It Is simply a matter of unable to do it. Also, without Chubb I do not see the
Dawgs being able to outscore them. Hope i am wrong. Go Dawgs. GATA.
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I am thinking 17-14. I just don’t know which team gets 17.
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I’m 37 years old.
So until we win about 5 in a row against these bastards, I doubt if I’ll ever look forward to this game.
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I don’t see that happening on either side anytime soon.
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Love the Senator throwing out a ‘bruh’.
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+1
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Me too – but I even read aloud ‘bacon breath’ but alas I was wrong – shocked!
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I expect the defense to be fired up and ready to play. Florida may have to run as many as SIX different plays.
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Dayum that stings. I laughed at that.
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I likey for Lexicon… Post-it playbook! Senator?? When there’s no need to run a different play. Not to be confused with the Fortune Cookie Playbook, which is used when your looking ahead to the next opponent.
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If Vegas thinks we have a shot we have a shot. This is especially true in situations where the general sentiment of dawg nation is pessimistic about Georgia winning and or covering.
These guys are not in the business of losing money folks. If you think Mark Richt is that incompetent and a blowout loss is guaranteed then the line of Florida as a 2.5 point favorite is risk free profit. If you’re that convinced put your money where your mouth is.
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Yeah, like against Bama. The silk suits nailed that one.
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How did i know I’d get a retort like this. Look nowhere in my post did i say Vegas gets it right for every game. But over many games most teams are roughly. 500 against the spread. Which makes sense because if Vegas is consistently too optimistic then an informed gambler can make money taking advantage of a consistently incorrect spread
And it still doesn’t disprove my point. If you think Vegas is wrong and Florida will certainly win by more than 3 points then bet for the gators. Hell I’m sure you have plenty of cash lying around because you won big when vegas was stupid and had us and Bama as a pick ’em. Use those winnings from your previous foresight and better yet refinance the house to bet big against Georgia. You’re convinced vegas is wrong!
If the thought of that makes you a little squeamish that’s fine too. Just recognize you’re not as dead certain about the outcome of the game as you’d like to believe. Because if that wasn’t the case you’d back up said opinion with cold hard cash.
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I was just kidding dawg, everyone knows Vegas is wrong. They’re good but they’re often wrong. I’ve found they are often best early in the season with teams beating the spread, that and late in the year with home conference dogs with close spreads.
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Maybe people just don’t gamble. Can’t someone believe Vegas is wrong without betting hard-earned money on it?
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Those big shiny buildings say they’re right much more than they’re wrong.
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Those big shiny buildings say they can dupe enough people into betting both sides of a line so they make money on the transactions.
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Now you tell me. 🙂
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And they do that by setting the line appropriately. The world’s greatest experts are the people (collectively) putting hard-earned money on the line.
As charlotte said, if the line were consistently so far off, it would be easy money and Vegas would lose big.
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Sigh. No, the line is basically the mean of expected outcomes by gamblers. It may or may not be close to the actual outcome, but a line is not a prediction.
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To add to your thought, UGA has lost 4 straight against the spread, which is pretty rare for us and most others. The current spread has been adjusted, and factored in by both Vegas and the betting public at this point as perception of this team slides. UGA under Richt is about 50% ATS, which is close to the norm for most programs. I doubt we have ever lost 5 against the spread in Richt’s tenure but that isn’t a recommendation to place a large sum on UGA.
I think this game should be a close, one possession game decided in the fourth quarter. But that is based on everything playing out as expected in the match ups. As we found out last year, some tmes weird things happen or a game gets sloppy with lots of turnovers and/or ST scores. It looks to be a low scoring game as both defenses are capable of stuffing the other. The biggest concern for me is our pass defense, it needs to be better than we have seen thus far and an aggressive pass rush against the below average FU OL is the answer, imo. If our own offensive line can get anything done this Saturday, we have a good chance to score enough points to get the W.
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I say we have a 2007 repeat. Two conference losses, then win a SEC game on a late FG right before the off week, with message board folks critical of our team in that late FG win, then winning out.
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Just look at the stats, bruh!
Just like the good ole senator did before the Alabama game and the Tennessee game!
Look at the stats!!!!!
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Sorry. Forgot to stick to the preferred “Georgia is doomed” format today.
I’ll try to do better.
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We also looked at stats before the games Georgia won. Not sure I see the pattern. In fact, being a football blog, we look at a lot of stats here all the time. Even in the offseason.
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You show mad trolling skillz bruh
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New post title, “We’ve always got a punchers chance.”
I just don’t see our offense scoring against their defense. You could say the same about FU’s offense vs our defense. Let’s hope they decide to keep Tree-on in the pocket like they did late in the game against LSU.
We have to hope our D shows up ready to go. If we can get a couple of turnovers, then things could go our way.
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I don’t expect Florida to score a lot of points, but if I had to bet on which coordinator would scheme up enough points to win based on what I’ve seen so far this season, I’d bet on Florida.
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Been saying it all week, we are not doomed.
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Thanks for writing a positive blog Senator, I give you a lot of hell for being negative, but I give credit where credit is due.
I am the pessimistic one this week. I don’t feel good about the game, as in I literally feel nauseous when I even think about us playing Florida this weekend. Im hoping we see a fair amount of Bauta. Go Dawgs!
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Well, stats are nice, but I prefer a more scientific approach.
The last time I went was in 2007, when we were coming off a pitiful, near loss to Vandy. I’m traveling with the same friend this time as last time.
And if you need anymore proof of our chances, last year we were #11 and FL was unranked. This year, FL is #11 and we’re unranked.
We’re due. I think the defense plays lights out, and the offensive game plan shrinks enough for Lambert/whoever to handle and we run it down their throats.
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“And if you need anymore proof of our chances, last year we were #11 and FL was unranked. This year, FL is #11 and we’re unranked.”
Will there be t-shirts
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Kelly?
//giphy.com/embed/Gfc4eQF9Mesog?html5=true
via GIPHY
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Why not?
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I think if I were a Gators fan…uh, sorry, I just threw up in my mouth a little…the thing that would scare me the most about this weekend is last year’s result.
Last year, most everybody expected we would whip their tails. Didn’t happen.
This year, most everybody expects they will whip our tails. Would love to type the words, “didn’t happen” on Saturday night.
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My advice? Start drinking heavily..
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too late…I’m already there
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