About that whole mirage thing…

Call it my personal meme this week, but I continue to wonder how much of Auburn’s recent resurgence is a legitimate corner turning and how much comes from the schedule.  Paragraphs like this illustrate my point:

… Yes, Auburn has played better of late, beating Texas A&M after staying close with Ole Miss and taking Arkansas to overtime in their previous two games. However, despite their improved play, the Auburn offense has still only averaged 5.6 yards per play in that three-game span. Prorated to an entire season, that number would rank sixth in the SEC, hardly an elite showing. It should also be noted that Arkansas ranks dead last in the SEC in yards per play allowed and Texas A&M ranks twelfth in that category (Ole Miss is fifth, but is not quite as stout as we all thought back in early October). Of course, Georgia has had offensive difficulties of their own, scoring zero touchdowns in their two games going into Kentucky. As is usually the case for SEC teams, Kentucky is the cure for what ails you. The Bulldogs put three touchdown on the board and gained 300 yards on the ground against the Wildcats. It should also be noted the two teams that shut down Georgia prior to their clash with the Wildcats, Florida and Missouri, rank first and second in the SEC in yards per play allowed…

For the record, in conference play, Georgia currently ranks fourth in yards per play allowed.  Auburn ranks tenth, just ahead of Kentucky.

21 Comments

Filed under Auburn's Cast of Thousands, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

21 responses to “About that whole mirage thing…

  1. Rebar

    I’ve watched a few of the Auburn games and early in the season, their receivers were terrible about dropping passes. They seem to have overcome that lately. I hope we curb stomp them like last year.

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  2. Derek

    I’d say that this a pretty evenly matched Futility Bowl. Auburn’s advantage is that their qb isn’t playing so terrible that they’ve given up on the position entirely. That’s probably balanced out by our edge in defense. The team with the fewest mistakes and which comes closest to executing their offense properly wins IMHO. It will be interesting to see if Auburn tries to play more power football as we ate that finesse up (save their first drive) all day long last year. If both teams are able to take away the run and force the QB to win the game we could see a repeat of the Mizzou game.

    I’d like to see #5 chuck it around just a little. If he can pass with any credibility, and not throw it to Auburn, we could make it a long day for them. The path to 10 wins (or only 7) may lie with #5.

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  3. Godwin (#5) played QB in High School so you’d think the coaches would have a wrinkle or two in the “Wild Dawg” where he rolls out and a WR is streaking down the field wide open for him to throw, but as we’ve seen for most of the year the coaches haven’t been that creative. *Sigh

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  4. I can’t say Georgia should win as the QB play is just that bad, but I expect a close game because Georgia matches up very well with Auburn. It’s built to stop teams like Auburn, frankly. I do worry more with Robinson finally playing well for Auburn. He’s a dynamic back that scares me whereas Barber was always just a guy.

    I also love the 11:00 am (local time) kickoff.

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  5. Spoke

    I see your point Senator. Sagarin’s SOS backs you up because we play a tougher schedule too, and still have a better ypp allowed. Pretty surprising considering Muschamp is running things. He’s been a complete bust so far. He was why so many people had them so high preseason.

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    • UGA85

      Why do you say we play a tougher schedule? Auburn still has Bama to play, granted, but they have played some tough West teams.

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      • Macallanlover

        He is using Sagarin’s SOS numbers I believe, and that is based on games played. Team strength is adjusted every weak so your SOS varies from week to week, if I understand it. Looking at his current power rankings, we should be very close to both Auburn and GT since they are away games, and about a 2 TD favorite against Ga. Southern.

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        • Spoke

          TO margin is the key to beating Tech & Auburn.

          I don’t see Tech beating us. They won the game twice when we beat ourselves with a (-) turnover margin in 08′ & 13′, we won all the other GT games when we didn’t have a (-) to margin.

          Holds true for Auburn over last 4 years. They only got us in 13′ when we beat ourselves with a (-) to margin.

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  6. anon

    Shouldn’t we ask the exact same question on Georgia’s “resurgence”?

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    • Bulldog Joe

      There has been no resurgence for Georgia.

      We’ve lost three of our last five.

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    • Spoke

      I think the point was recently we have played better defenses (Mizzou and Gators) and they have faced a couple of clunker defenses. And despite that, their ypp isn’t that great over the last 3 games. Ours isn’t either, BUT we have played much better defenses over that span.

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    • Maybe you missed it with all your righteous indignation about my Richt-enabling, but I have Auburn ahead of Georgia in my current SEC Power Poll.

      Feel free to ask whatever question you like. Or tell me where the stats I’ve posted are wrong.

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      • Jared S.

        You just ranked Auburn ahead of Georgia so we look that much better when we stomp a mud hole in them on Saturday! I know your game! =D

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      • MLB2

        You warned us about the qb play in August. Where did you think we would be at this point? I didn’t expect an SEC title this year nor do I expect one next year. I think you’ve been very consistent over the years but a lot of commenters have given you hell since the Bama game. I don’t recall you giving any guarantee of greatness. Just curious.

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        • Honestly, I thought by now they’d be getting more out of the QBs than they have.

          Then again, I didn’t think the o-line would regress, either.

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          • MLB2

            O-line has been a big disappointment. I thought we would lose to Scar and Bama before the season. We’re worse than I thought. At least the D has progressed. I hope Pruitt is still here after the bowl game.

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          • Cosmic Dawg

            We lost two extremely reliable receivers, a great center, a QB who made few mistakes, an OC who set records for scoring , and arguably the best, most competitive UGA RB since 34. we should absolutely be better than we are, but some of the disappointment this season is on our too high expectations.

            That does not, of course, excuse CMR for not doing more with the wealth of talent he’s had from 2012 to 2014 or the oft-mentioned recruiting issues that let us this dearth of veteran players were seeing now.

            But the 2015 Bulldogs are probably playing about as well as they can. I do think CMB would have gotten some more points out of them, but it would not have looked like the last few years no matter who our OC was.

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  7. Will (The Other One)

    Was Nkimdiche out when Ole Miss played Auburn?

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