Bob Bowlsby’s mad math skillz

OMG!  It turns out the Big 12 Commissioner was wrong when he said that adding two teams and a conference championship game would increase the Big 12’s chances of cracking the college football playoffs by 4-5%.  It’s moar!

Analytics from Navigate Research are expected to show the Big 12 has at least a 10-15 percent better chance of reaching the CFP in any given year if it expands as opposed to staying in its 10-team configuration.

That percentage at least doubles than the “4-5 percent” improvement commissioner Bob Bowlsby spoke about in Phoenix on Monday. That smaller figure discussed by Bowlsby only included the addition of a conference championship game, CBS Sports has learned.

The particular analysis used by Navigate for Wednesday’s presentation includes expanding the league to 12 with two additional teams, playing an eight-game conference schedule and staging a league championship game…

Oops.  This, of course, changes everything.  Except for this guy:

While the new data seems to suggest it would be in the 10-team conference’s best interest to expand, one league source called the existing analytics “statistically insignificant.”

If nothing else, expansion would provide a “buffer” of members if schools leave in the future.

Now there’s a comforting thought.  If Texas and Oklahoma leave, at least the rest of the conference would have the likes of BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati, UConn, Houston and Memphis to fall back on for comfort.

You have a bright future ahead of you, Bob.


Filed under Big 12 Football

4 responses to “Bob Bowlsby’s mad math skillz

  1. Just Chuck (The Other One)

    “statistically insignificant.”?

    Is there no one at the university that can explain statistical significance to this guy?


  2. Silver Britches

    I fail to see how “analytics” can help in this situation when a) there isn’t enough data to analyze yet, and b) there is a massive human component relying on subjectivity that is going to change from year to year.


  3. UFTimmy

    So adding 20% more teams increases the likelihood of a single team by 10-15%.

    That’s a slam dunk if I’ve ever seen one.