An early look at SEC win totals

Chip Patterson’s gathered the info from Vegas Insider for the early lines on wins.  Here’s how the SEC looks on June 1:

Team Win Total Prices
Alabama 10 Over +100 Under -120
LSU 10 Over +100 Under -120
Tennessee 9.5 Over +105 Under -125
Georgia 8.5 Over -110 Under -110
Ole Miss 8.5 Over +100 Under -120
Arkansas 7.5 Over -120 Under +100
Florida 7.5 Over -125 Under +105
Auburn 6.5 Over -110 Under -110
Mississippi State 6.5 Over -120 Under +100
Texas A&M 6 Over -120 Under +100
Missouri 5.5 Over -110 Under -110
Kentucky 5 Over -110 Under -110
South Carolina 5 Over -110 Under -110
Vanderbilt 5 Over -110 Under -110

Patterson thinks taking the over on Georgia looks like the best bet on the board.

Before you jump in here one way or another, here are some advanced stats to ponder.  First, Brian Fremeau has his initial stab at 2016 strength of schedule rankings posted and here’s where the SEC teams stand:

  • Auburn – 1st
  • Mississippi State – 2nd
  • Texas A&M – 3rd
  • Ole Miss – 4th
  • Kentucky – 6th
  • Arkansas – 7th
  • Alabama – 8th
  • LSU – 9th
  • Florida – 11th
  • Missouri – 12th
  • Tennessee – 14th
  • South Carolina – 15th
  • Vanderbilt – 21st
  • Georgia – 43rd

Over at Team Speed Kills, David Wunderlich has taken the early S&P+ projections and fashioned what he calls an equivalency list of each SEC team.

What counts as “equivalent teams” is entirely subjective, but the measure I used is being within a touchdown’s worth of points. In the example above, Ole Miss is just outside of being a peer to Alabama. No. 2 LSU, with its S&P+ of 24.4, would be a peer of Alabama (and also of the Rebels, incidentally).

Enough setup. Here is how everything turned out:

TEAM S&P+ RANK S&P+ HIGHEST PEER LOWEST PEER TOTAL PEERS
Alabama 1 26.8 No. 4 Oklahoma 3
LSU 2 24.4 No. 1 Alabama No. 7 Ole Miss 6
Ole Miss 7 18.9 No. 1 Alabama No. 25 Texas A&M 23
Tennessee 9 17.0 No. 4 Oklahoma No. 30 Miami (FL) 25
Georgia 15 16.2 No. 4 Oklahoma No. 34 Texas 30
Arkansas 17 15.2 No. 4 Oklahoma No. 38 Iowa 33
Florida 19 14.5 No. 5 Florida State No. 39 Utah 34
Mississippi State 21 13.6 No. 5 Florida State No. 42 Minnesota 37
Auburn 24 12.5 No. 6 Michigan No. 45 WKU 37
Texas A&M 25 12.5 No. 6 Michigan No. 45 WKU 37
Missouri 47 5.1 No. 26 Nebraska No. 80 Air Force 54
South Carolina 63 2.8 No. 31 TCU No. 90 MTSU 59
Vanderbilt 69 1.8 No. 35 BYU No. 95 Ohio 61
Kentucky 83 -2.4 No. 51 Duke No. 105 Georgia State 54

Respectable projection for the Dawgs there.  Taken together with what, at least at this stage, appears to be a favorable schedule, I’d have to say that Patterson is on to something.  What do you guys think?

13 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, SEC Football, Stats Geek!, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

13 responses to “An early look at SEC win totals

  1. DawgPhan

    We are more talented than every team on our schedule.

    I suspect that several players will have career years with a new set of eyes watching them.

    the over on 8.5 is easy money.

    Like

    • Uglydawg

      I like the way you talk. If Georgia going over is a good bet, then Tennessee going under logically follows. That looks like the pivotal game for the whole shebang right now.

      Like

      • Macallanlover

        Dead on. I think 8 1/2 is the right number for a UGA over under, you can make a great case for both sides (hence the -110 -110 odds). But I doubt we hit 9 without beating the Vols, and I don’t see any way they hit 10 with a loss to us. Still too early for betting, think if you had locked in on Baylor last week.

        Like

  2. @gatriguy

    2016 UGA to me might be a lot like 2015 Iowa or UNC. Not sure how talented they actually are (I still think the roster management issues of the previous regime is going to take a few years to flush through), but the schedule is manageable and sets up nicely. Getting Ole Miss the week after they play Bama and UT the week after they Florida should really help through that stretch.

    We’ll see, but over 8.5 seems like a value bet to me.

    Like

  3. PTC DAWG

    IF the total includes bowls, etc. sure, I’d take the over.

    Like

  4. Maybe it’s just because it’s Tuesday and not yet 8am on the West coast, but I don’t understand the significance of that equivalency ranking. What is that saying? That there are 34 teams as good as Georgia?

    Like

    • Uglydawg

      I had the same thoughts, Chili. It’s the dead season. I’m hoping to see a lot of info on North Carolina appearing soon…and it’s a pretty sure bet that Bluto is on that mother.

      Like

  5. Is the first game tomorrow? Can we skip summer?

    Like

  6. Jared S.

    I continue to have a very uneasy feeling about everyone counting Auburn “out” this year, after so many predicted they’d win the SEC last year…..

    Like

  7. lakedawg

    Easiest schedule in last 15 years and aQB this year, can not see more than one loss.

    Like