Daily Archives: July 5, 2016

Message for a new coach

One of my favorite quotes ever was the subject of my first Envy and Jealousy post back in 2007.  All these years later, and it still resonates.

Miami: From a Bulldog perspective, if you looked at the state of Florida as though it were Afghanistan (and I do), the Gators, obviously, are the Taliban, while Miami is whatever warlord is running things in the Northeast. The Hurricanes don’t occupy anything remotely resembling moral high ground, but they are useful.

I bring this up now, because if you’re a Georgia fan, FSU and Miami should serve one useful purpose — crapping on Florida recruiting by sucking the oxygen out of the tent.  Bud Elliott writes that one of those two is keeping up its end of the bargain.

Florida State has enjoyed a strong run of success against Florida and Miami under Jimbo Fisher, and those wins are really paying dividends on the recruiting trail. For example, just this past year, the Gators and Hurricanes signed a combined 19 blue-chip recruits, while the Seminoles brought in 18 by themselves.

Coach Richt, I’m just sayin’.

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32 Comments

Filed under Gators, Gators..., Recruiting

I been up; I been down.

Two reactions to the Michel injury… first, from CFN, which has been high on the Dawgs all offseason:

What Does This Really Mean?

Alright, Brendan Douglas. The floor’s yours.

The 5-11, 215-pound senior only ran for 140 yards last season and is coming off an arm injury of his own, but he’ll be the first option. Fall camp will be used to try to find someone more dynamic.

If there’s one area Georgia couldn’t afford to get hit with a big injury, this was it. Chubb – from all indications – isn’t going to be ready to roll for a while, and the hope is to start out the season with true freshman Jacob Eason at quarterback. That’s a problem if there isn’t a reliable back to carry the load.

Depth was already an issue, and now the options are paper thin needing freshmen Elijah Holyfield – Evander’s extremely talented son – and 6-3, 220-pound thumper Tae Crowder to step up and shine.

Getting through North Carolina shouldn’t be too much of an issue, and getting Nicholls right after is a break, but the running game had better be working with road games at Missouri and Ole Miss to close out September.

Georgia’s top three backs will all be returning from injuries this season.  Nice.  And this is coming from someone who thinks “North Carolina shouldn’t be too much of an issue”.  Kirby’s got an interesting balancing act to weigh early on, that’s for sure.  Considering that Nicholls State is the second game, how much does Smart feel the need to risk the recovery of his stud backs in the opener?  And if he takes a chance on holding them out until the third week, what does that mean for Eason’s development?  Beats me.

Much more gloomy and doomy is Chip Towers.

The timing is rotten, for sure. The Bulldogs haven’t yet said what the timetable is for Michel’s actual return beyond he’s expected to make “a full recovery.” But the number that is being circulated among folks with some knowledge of the situation is six to eight weeks.

That just happens to be about exactly how much time the Bulldogs have to get ready for the start 2016 season.  They play North Carolina in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff on Sept. 3 in Atlanta at the Georgia Dome.

Leave it to Georgia to build a little preseason drama. I mean, they were already heading into the first game of coach Kirby Smart’s first season with a rather notable question mark next to Nick Chubb’s name. Chubb, the starter before Michel, is also negotiating a rehabilitation timeline that looks like it might end right about time to kickoff against the Tar Heels. When the Dogs visit the Dome, it will have been 316 days — or roughly 10 months — since Chubb’s surgery last October to repair three non-ACL ligaments in his left knee.

Generally, nobody has been sweating Chubb’s full return for the opener because, well, everybody was sure the Bulldogs had Michel to carry the load. Now they don’t, or at least they don’t know if they will.

That being said, as Towers goes on to note, this wouldn’t be Michel’s first rodeo with an arm problem.

All indications or that Michel likely could play in  that game. As one reader wrote to me in an email Monday, “it’s his arm, not his legs; he’ll be fine.” And I imagine there is something to that. It would seem that 60 days would be enough time for Michel to heal enough to play with a cast if the need be. He actually played most of the last third of the season last year with a removable cast on his right wrist, which he broke in the first quarter of the Florida game.

One other thing to factor into the equation, which Towers also points out, and which I’ve noted before, is the weakness of North Carolina’s run defense.  Perhaps that gives Chaney and Smart a greater margin of error to work with in deciding which backs get the ball in the opener.

Has anyone’s over/under on Chubb’s carries against NC changed in light of the news?

49 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football

Chasing blue chips, a reminder why

Brian Cook summarizes the math nicely here:

Recruiting is important, part infinity. PFF released a list of the top 101 players in college football that we mentioned in this space because it has five different Michigan defenders on it. Some dude on 247 ran it through some statistical analysis. Results:

Minimum: 1 ~ 1.000
First Quartile: 31.5 ~ 98.40
Median: 238 ~ 90.90
Third Quartile: 1000 ~ 84.19
Maximum: 3000

Over 25% of players listed in PPFs player rankings were rated as 5* players coming out of high school by the composite. Over 50% were rated as 4* players. While recruiting rankings aren’t perfect they are a strong correlate of future success.

Five star players are approximately 1-3% of the pool and four-stars about 10%. This is in line with findings about the NFL draft; applying this analysis to PFF’s rankings of college players based on their performance right now is even stronger evidence that recruiting rankings matter.

Yes, there are many three-stars and two-stars who defy the odds and go on to playing success.  But that’s the point.  Those odds aren’t in a coach’s favor.

Three-quarters of the top players are blue chippers who make up under 15% of the total pool of recruits.  So if you’re looking for great players, either you find a way to separate the wheat from the chaff consistently, or you chase the kids at the top.  There’s no mystery why the best recruiters go after the most highly ranked high school kids.  That’s where the odds are.

15 Comments

Filed under Recruiting

If you got it, flaunt it, baby.

Alabama just docked itself a secondary recruiting violation for this“a trophy was temporarily placed in an area where prospects taking an official visit would be, which resulted in an impermissible recruiting decoration of that area.”

An impermissible recruiting decoration.  Damn that Nick Saban, reminding recruits that his program’s been successful.  What perfidy lies in store next?

8 Comments

Filed under Nick Saban Rules, The NCAA

Musical palate cleanser, just drive edition, part two

I would be committing MPC malpractice if I didn’t include a Beach Boys tune about driving.  This one’s live from 1964.

Polite audience, though.

7 Comments

Filed under Uncategorized