Thanks for everything, Spurdog.

You want to buy into the notion that Richt left Georgia’s cupboard a little bare for Kirby Smart?  Boys, you have no idea what bare really looks like.

As dismal as what Boom’s inherited looks like and as mediocre as his term was at Florida, you know what the worst part is?  This.

Optimist: In four seasons, UF never ranked worse than 33rd in S&P+. Whether you appreciate the style (and it’s hard to at times), his baseline is pretty high, higher than South Carolina has managed over the last couple of years.

That’s right.  Florida at its worst under Muschamp was better than South Carolina the last couple of seasons under Spurrier.  Which leads to…

Pessimist: Yeah, but in four years, UF never ranked better than 29th only once, and that was with top-10 recruiting. Now he’s at a school that only recruits at a top-25 level. In terms of stars vs. results, he underachieved, and now the caliber of the roster he inherited is lower.

The prognosis isn’t pretty, doctor.  And Bill didn’t mention something that might make things even worse.  Check out Florida’s turnover margin under Muschamp:

  • 2012:  +15
  • 2013:  minus-2
  • 2014:  +2

In other words, Boom’s one great year was accompanied by a stellar turnover margin.

Meanwhile, South Carolina finished 2015 with a +5 turnover margin, good for 32nd nationally.  If you’ll recall this handy little chart from the folks at Pick Six Previews,

screen-shot-2016-07-25-at-9-15-05-pm

it was literally the one bright spot in team performance last season for South Carolina.  If that regresses to the mean, there ain’t much left for ol’ Will to hang his hat on, it would seem.

18 Comments

Filed under 'Cock Envy, Stats Geek!

18 responses to “Thanks for everything, Spurdog.

  1. Hogbody Spradlin

    Tough enchiladas

  2. Red Cup

    But hey, Boom says they have bought in and are working extremely hard.
    All is well.

  3. Normaltown Mike

    McElwain may or may not be a good coach, but he no doubt walked into a MUCH better roster than Boom has in Sackerlina.

  4. Derek

    I wish I could place USCe into the dustbin of history and think they’ll become UK or Vandy equivalents. I just don’t see that happening. USC can get enough kids out of South Carolina and Georgia who can play but aren’t wanted by other schools. Georgia has something like 120 kids that sign up to play big time football. If we get 20 and you split another 60 between the orange schools and Alabama, you’ve still got a big pool to choose from. I also don’t think that those kids are necessarily that much worse than the kids that are more well thought of. As we know, not all 5 stars are alike and not all three stars are washouts. We may not want Conner Shaw, but he can play.

    With a little effort you can get 85 guys that can play sec football and then you just need a signature win over UT, UGA or UF when they’re supposed to be good and build from there. You win a couple of recruiting battles and/or some freaks like lattimore or clowney appear in your local high schools and all of a sudden you are where USC is supposed to be: the middle of the sec east and capable of beating and losing to anyone on the schedule.

    I’m not suggesting that USC can win the sec, but I just don’t think it’s a place that will be a dumpster fire for long. Moreover, look for us to remain their no. 1 sec game every year while we place them 4th leading to continued unfortunate consequences.

    IMHO if you want to measure a gap between CMR and CKS, this series may be the most telling. If we start owning this series that will be a strong comment on team focus and on improved recruiting.

    UT and UF and Auburn will be up and down. We are capable of owning USC. If we do, we’ve changed some significant dynamics and created more opportunities to be relevant in November.

    • Good post, Derek. We definitely want the USCe series to go back to the way it was. Sort of like the tech series is now. Win 6 of every 7. Never let them get more than 2 wins consecutively. Beat them unmercifully every once in a while and tear out their hearts a couple of times as well.

      You’re right. If Kirby is doing his job as well as everyone hopes, we’re frying chickens regularly. As people said about Goff, “If you can’t beat the Poultry, go back to Moultrie.”

    • stoopnagle

      Agree with the last bit there about how to read the UGA-USC series.

      The first part, well, I’m not sure. They had Lou Holtz and Steve Spurrier for the last 16 years and managed 7-9 vs dear old UGA. That’s two HOF coaches and one of em, Spurrier, one of the best three coaches in SEC history (I’d say the best, but that’s me). And they didn’t break even. They did get one coach fired and they did kick our ass a few times. But I don’t know that there’s anyone that can get SC to where Spurrier got them. I do know it’s not old #30.

      • Derek

        True but 7 out of 16 is far too many. The right number is 2 or 3. I’m also not sure that we can give Lou and SOS all the credit. They were giving us too much trouble with Brad Scott and Jim Morrison too. When they’ve had a George Rogers, a Lattimore, a Todd Ellis, a Tannehill, irrespective of head coach, they’ve been a problem for us. One of the biggest reasons I think is that the talent gap hasn’t been so great as we’d like to think it is AND they have been more emotionally invested in the series than us for a lot of reasons. If we start outclassing them and creating a real distance, we’re going to give ourselves more chances at the rings, aka dust collectors.

        • JCDAWG83

          Losing three in a row to the chickens was reason enough to fire Richt. That had never happened in recorded history and it should never have happened. A third of SC’s total wins over Georgia came against Richt, this series was the textbook example of why Richt should have been fired. South Carolina should be a series like tech, they should get a win every 5 or 6 years on average. We should never measure our program against a loser program like the chickens.

          • AthensHomerDawg

            Let it go JC. You’re becoming trite with that rant.

            • Macallanlover

              He is a little man, trite becomes him. Just ignore him, he revels in tearing down a DGD even after he has moved on. There are a handful just like them. every fan base has them. Makes them feel like bad asses, but really just dumb asses.

          • lakedawg

            Richt coaches at Miami man, give it a break

  5. GATA 72

    well at the end of this quagmire, usc will drift back to their more natural place in the annals of ncaaf ranking of 48. I would say that’s about right.
    http://collegefootball.ap.org/top-100

  6. Sh3rl0ck

    There is a fundamental difference between Coach Boom and the previous two hires at Head Football Coach. Spurrier and Holtz had won National Championships at their previous schools. Boom got fired. 55% of all of their bowl appearances and all but one bowl win occurred under those two coaches. USCe is ripe for regression to the mean, especially with the progeny of Clem doing well.

  7. Spike

    If USCe had limited success with Granny Holtz and the HBC, why do they think Boom is any better?

  8. Always remember, Spurrier never cared for UGA……NEVER!