You want to buy into the notion that Richt left Georgia’s cupboard a little bare for Kirby Smart? Boys, you have no idea what bare really looks like.
As dismal as what Boom’s inherited looks like and as mediocre as his term was at Florida, you know what the worst part is? This.
Optimist: In four seasons, UF never ranked worse than 33rd in S&P+. Whether you appreciate the style (and it’s hard to at times), his baseline is pretty high, higher than South Carolina has managed over the last couple of years.
That’s right. Florida at its worst under Muschamp was better than South Carolina the last couple of seasons under Spurrier. Which leads to…
Pessimist: Yeah, but in four years, UF never ranked better than 29th only once, and that was with top-10 recruiting. Now he’s at a school that only recruits at a top-25 level. In terms of stars vs. results, he underachieved, and now the caliber of the roster he inherited is lower.
The prognosis isn’t pretty, doctor. And Bill didn’t mention something that might make things even worse. Check out Florida’s turnover margin under Muschamp:
- 2012: +15
- 2013: minus-2
- 2014: +2
In other words, Boom’s one great year was accompanied by a stellar turnover margin.
Meanwhile, South Carolina finished 2015 with a +5 turnover margin, good for 32nd nationally. If you’ll recall this handy little chart from the folks at Pick Six Previews,
it was literally the one bright spot in team performance last season for South Carolina. If that regresses to the mean, there ain’t much left for ol’ Will to hang his hat on, it would seem.