One last stat-driven thought about the Nicholls game

As someone pointed out yesterday, Georgia’s in a bit of a free fall when it comes to advanced stats, having fallen, for example, from 12th in Bill Connelly’s preseason S&P+ projections to 27th in those through Week 3.

Dig a little deeper, though, and you’ll see why.  The percentile performances in Georgia’s first three games are as follows:

  • North Carolina:  88%
  • Nicholls:  1%
  • Missouri:  57%

No, 1% isn’t good there.  It’s also almost impossible to find any other teams posting that kind of result.  A look at the bottom ten teams here found a 0% in Buffalo’s loss to Albany, but otherwise, nothing even close.  Looking at some other embarrassing results, Mississippi State’s loss to South Alabama rated at 13% and Washington State’s loss to Eastern Washington still managed to garner a 7%.

So, me calling Georgia’s effort against Nicholls a D-minus was generous.  1% is amazingly bad.  But Georgia still managed to win, which may be even more amazing.

But that’s not really the point here.  Play that poorly in one-third of your schedule and that’s bound to bring your numbers down big time.  Play respectably going forward and you’ll see a recovery in the advanced stats numbers.

Along those lines, note that Bill still projects the Dawgs to have a 30% chance of winning nine games and a 24% chance of winning ten.  In other words, things haven’t really changed that much.

14 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

14 responses to “One last stat-driven thought about the Nicholls game

  1. DawgPhan

    It’s like Georgia is in from immortal battle with advanced stats every year.

    Georgia will probably play in the SEC title game and never have a 90% game or something equally crazy.

    But that 1% win is something else.

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    • Will (The Other One)

      What’s interesting is it was originally 3% last week, and has gone down (I pointed it out to Bill C. on Twitter at 3% and he actually thought it’d go up further along the year…just not yet.)

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  2. sniffer

    I’m not savvy enough to find these advanced stats. For perspective, could you share the number for FSU this past Saturday? Seriously, that was a shi77y game rhe ‘Noles played, but I’m guessing it was better than 1%.

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  3. Hopefully not 2012 Derek

    Not to stir debate….just a stat of interest.
    Our closest game against an FCS (1-AA) opponent under CMR was a 20 point victory over GASO in ’04. CMR went 12-0 vs. FCS opponents and never scored less than 38 in each of those games.

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  4. Dawg19

    “…the Dawgs have a 30% chance of winning nine games and a 24% chance of winning ten.”

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