Uneasy lies the point spread

I’m not gonna lie to you. I don’t feel particularly optimistic about Georgia’s chances tomorrow.  It’s the why that’s so part I’m having trouble putting my finger on.  Yeah, it’s a road game, and, yeah, Ole Miss is ranked.

But the Rebels have a losing record and in the course of that have managed to blow two huge early leads.  Games with Alabama tend to take their toll the following week and I can’t help but think the early start doesn’t help Ole Miss’ cause in that regard.  There’s also the reality that Hugh Freeze is under immense pressure to win; if Ole Miss goes to 1-3, there’s very real chance this season gets away from him, maybe even to the point that the school goes proactive on its postseason as a sop to the ongoing NCAA investigation.  In short, the intangibles don’t favor Ole Miss, either.

I suppose my knee jerk response is to see a talent advantage on the side of Freeze’s troops, but this Jeff Sentell post neatly skewers that perception, as well.

So why my gloom and doom?  I don’t know, exactly.  Any suggestions?


Filed under Georgia Football

70 responses to “Uneasy lies the point spread

  1. Athens Dog

    The talent is still not great in the lines. That’s the worry. I have the same feeling I did a couple of years ago before we went to Missouri. We shellacked them.

    Hoping for the same tomorrow. Some kind of big surprise.

  2. JG Shellnutt

    Because we’re Georgia fans

  3. Biggus Rickus

    Because Georgia has been underwhelming the past couple of weeks, especially against Nicholls, and while Ole Miss blew them, they did have big leads on presumably very good competition. I’m not really doom and gloom though. I just have no idea what to expect. If both teams play up to their capabilities, It think it’s more or less a tossup, as I think both are pretty good but flawed on their best days.

  4. Because we haven’t won in this spot in awhile?

    When was the last time we went into another team’s house with this sort of line and won? I think its 2009 vs. a top ten Tech team. (I think we’ll see a similar result tomorrow fwiw.)

    Before that maybe the 2008 game at LSU when we put up 52? I don’t remember the line that day.

    Before that at UT in 2001. Before that 1997 in the WLOCP. Before that 1986 at Auburn. Before that 1985 at the WLOCP.

    Am I missing any?? Even if I am missing one or two, the point is that you don’t win a lot of these sorts of games hence the anxiety.

    I think the parallel with 2009 vs. Tech is that Ole Miss isn’t as good as people think and we’re better than any of the three games we’ve played have shown.

    • Biggus Rickus

      Florida was a 6 point favorite in 2012. That’s the last similar win. Bama was an 8 point favorite in the title game that same year, which was close to a similar win. I wouldn’t be mad if Georgia lost a similarly close game this week. Just disappointed.

    • garageflowers

      Auburn 2006, Stafford’s freshman year was a great one.

    • dawgman3000

      What about the 07 end zone dance in Jacksonville?

      • 81Dog

        Coming off a near disaster the previous week at Vandy, I don’t think I have ever been more sure UGA would get hammered. Shows what I know. A few weeks later, we were probably the best team in the country. Weird things happen.

    • Ole Dokes

      The WLOCP is not FU’s house. Not trying to pick nits, just sayin’…

  5. MGW

    Well, Eason has pretty much met expectations, but we were hoping they would be on top of a prolific run game, and thats not been there for the last two games. We expected a secondary thats been sort of anonymous but effective the last couple seasons to at least keep pace and probably improve, but they’ve really been pretty lucky some deeb balls have been thrown poorly because people are getting behind them.

    On the flip side, Ole Miss may have 2 losses, but they also had big leads over two very good teams. They blew the leads, but I do we have the same kind of “wear you down in the second half” talent that Bama and FSU do? Not really. Definitely not like Bama.

    Thats it for me. Its a combo of a lot of little things. They’re 1-2 and were pretty close to being 3-0, we’re 3-0 but were pretty close to being 0-3.

    To me it comes down to a couple basic things: (1) is Ole Miss going to be able to keep doing whatever the last two teams we played did to stop the run game, or are we going to figure out how to fix it, and (2), is Ole Miss going to connect on some of those deep balls others have missed on, or are we going to fix whatever allowed those chances to happen(or get lucky with some drops/poor throws again)?

  6. I see that Huck has it 34 to 17 in favor of Ole Miss.
    I still think that next week against Tenn. Is when the Dawgs
    finally show what kind of team they are.
    I think that It will be a very good one starting then.

  7. Dovedawg

    UGA v. AU 2006. Pretty much same scenario, except a little earlier in the season. I say that we play a complete game and get some breaks. Look for a close storybook ending a la v. UT 2001.
    Weird time to start. Ole Miss a little tight. The Rebs come out with fake juice but lose it when they make a mistake or we make a great play. We the underdogs and probably much more loose and ready to go then them. You just never know when the talent on our team will gel at the right time. And I agree with Dawg39. By next week we will be a much better team than the one that played Nichols State or Missou.
    Go Dawgs!

  8. DawgPhan

    Dawgs are certainly going to have to play much better than they have this year to win this game on the road.

    I suspect that kelly will give them some chances on turnovers, but the boys in the secondary might need to house those picks to actually score any points on a turnover.

  9. DawgPhan

    Dont they say the most improvement is from week 3 to 4.

    thats a thing right?

  10. Bware

    Hoping for a ’07 Florida result. Under achieving most of the season prior to winning a last second road game to build momentum. Nothing really to lose tomorrow. Play loose. East is still there for the taking either way. Chubb can definitely put together a Knowshon-like day. Young qb hits some big pass plays. Realize Stafford was halfway through soph season, but you see where I’m going. D harrasses a mobile qb. Haven’t seen anything to suggest Kelly isn’t 100%, but man if he didn’t take some shots last week. D needs to hit him hard on his runs and heaven forbid we get him for a sack or TFL. Not saying we’ll win, just have that feeling. UF was favored that day but had already lost a game or two also. A special teams TD or big play would obviously help. Go Dogs!

  11. 92 grad

    We are presently at the zenith of our typical level of play. We are conditioned to weather a few losses like what we think may happen tomorrow so the ambiguous emotion is based on the question “if things are moving in a direction where our team is capable of beating top 10 teams, will it happen tomorrow?”.

  12. Spike

    Have a brew.. Don’t cost nuthin’…

  13. Slaw Dawg

    Munson moaner that I typically am, I feel weirdly optimistic about tomorrow’s game. Which is probably a bad sign for us!

  14. kckd

    I’ve watched every snap Ole Miss has played and they looked better in their 2 losses than we did in our 3 wins. I completely understand. However, almost every intangible leans to our side. And have you thought about this: If they lose Saturday, they will have lost to 3 freshmen QBs in four games.

  15. Any suggestions? Yes ,as your attorney I advise you to drink heavily.

  16. Dawgy1

    If the Dawgs somehow find the mysterious run game and keep the ball from Kelly, I give them a sluggers chance. But confidence is low.

  17. Walt

    I’m feeling like Georgia’s chances are slim. Then again, I figured we’d crush Nicholls so what the hell do I know.

    BTW, I have degrees from Nicholls (BS), Ole Miss(MS) and Georgia (PhD), which is kind of weird to think that Georgia is playing my other alma maters in the same year.

  18. Ed Kilgore

    My gut reaction is that Ole Miss is Mizzou on steroids: great DL with pass-rushing ability, great receivers, very good QB–but significantly more talented all around, and with their backs against the wall. Don’t feel good about it at all.

  19. dawgman3000

    It’s because their qb and wide outs + our almost non existing pass rush and running game = a long afternoon at the ball park . My suggestion would be to begin getting sauced up now and to stay thirsty.

    • Ed Kilgore

      Guess I better start soon and stay up all night, because kickoff is at 9:00 AM here in California. Bourbon-and-coffee does go surprisingly well with sausage-and-biscuits.

      • Uglydawg

        Got a friend promoting Wild Turkey Vanilla in coffee..

      • Hogbody Spradlin

        Ed, you tried breakfast stout? Like coffee and chocolate.

        • Ed Kilgore

          Yum. Gotta ask: is breakfast stout an actual thing, or is it just drinking stout at breakfast time? My favorite stouts: Dragon (from Jamaica), which I haven’t been able to find for a good while, and Sierra Nevada (from right here in Cali).

          • budro

            Founder’s Breakfast Stout is indeed real, and it’s fabulous. Their Kentucky Breakfast Stout, aged in bourbon barrels, is even better, but it’s a limited seasonal release that’s almost impossible to find.

          • Cojones

            Ed, if you like really good red beer, try the Pasadena basement-brewed red served at the Huntington Inn tap room, Pasadena (now known as the Huntington Langham). Last time I was there, the brewer’s father was there and bought my first lip-smackin’ tasty one. It’s a piano bar with really good talent, mostly, so you can bring the significant other and she will appreciate the tuxedoed bartender for you. Dress up, even if you are staying there. You can also drink it for breakfast by the pool to go with the great Mexican breakfast they have on the menu.

            Their personnel were the closest to graceful Southerners that I enjoyed in So Cal.

  20. Coweta Dawg

    Ol’ Miss seems to have played below their potential. They have an immensely talented QB. They are at home. Can’t think of why we should expect a big improvement from our men this week. Trepidation is the word I’m searching for.

  21. I don’t feel great about tomorrow because I’m not confident our offensive line can block anybody. OTOH, they have not been great on defense, so if the o line gets it together, we have a fighting chance.

    I want to see a team that fights like mad for 60 minutes, and let the chips falls where they may. Tomorrow feels like a game where we’ll see how much Kirby has turned the battleship.

  22. Rebar

    Well, we came from behind in all our other wins so there is that!

  23. Debby Balcer

    The team does not quit so it will be a fun game to watch I hope the team keeps gelling.

  24. rchris

    The reason for your disquiet is that UGA has barely beaten three teams that have less talent overall than it has. Ole Miss matches and in some cases beats our talent, and except for the safety position has more experience as well. Logic says that if Georgia performs just as well as they did in the first three games but no better, they should lose to a better team than they have faced so far. Our only hope is for massive improvement to have occurred over this past week, although the hidden premise behind “A Tale of Focus” suggests that Eason’s improvement, at least, is baked into the situation. One can hope.

  25. 3rdandGrantham

    Right there with you — I’ve been tell ij ng everyone all week we most likely will lose….perhaps big.

    With that said, I absolutely love the 11 am kickoff and, lets face it, VH stadium isn’t exactly LSU at night with its 64k or whatever capacity and rather docile fan base. Hell, isnt even Mizzou’s stadium larger?

    I’d be more nervous if Ole Miss was 3-0 and riding high. As it stands, their SECW dreams already are up in smoke, and under the first sign of adversity tomorrow, they might totally fall apart.

  26. Hogbody Spradlin

    Before the season our offensive line was called ‘experienced’. Now it’s ‘undersized’. Funny how that happens.

  27. artful codger

    For me, a large part of my concern about tomorrow has been instilled in the psyche over the last 9 months. There have been many predictions about Smart’s first season. 7-5, 8-4, 9-3, 10-2. A few 11-1. Don’t think I ever saw a 12-0. All those predictions prob average out in the 9-3 range +-.
    Given that, I’m conditioned and expectent to lose along the way somewhere. Tennessee and Ol Miss have long been thought the most likely to hand it to us. And here we are.

  28. I’m not gonna lie to you either brother. Neither do I.
    Go Dawgs.

  29. I got a bad feeling about this.

  30. AusDawg85

    They are old miss. We don’t lose to these cellar dwellers. Stop being such whining babies, suck it up, and root for them Dawgs. They can be pushed around so get out there and pound them doilie making hottie totties.

    Gosh o’mighty.

  31. Bulldog Joe

    An undefeated team with unimpressive wins over unimpressive teams taking on a team coming off a high-scoring loss with a lot to prove.

    Hmmm. Better check to see if rain is in the forecast.

  32. Dawg Vegas

    Pretty simple why I share similar feelings: Mississippi scored 34 on FSU and 43 on Alabama. I think both of those schools have better defenses than we do (though I’m not so sure about the strength of FSU now).

    So if they score in that range or higher (shudder), and with our intermittent scoring ability, kicking game, run blocking, and still-to-be-determined offensive philosophy, I don’t know if we can score enough to keep up.

    Still, not gonna be surprised by any outcome tomorrow.

    • Will (The Other One)

      Can’t shake that last sentence either.
      UNC was a pleasant surprise, as was the second half of Mizzou (the first half was partly what I feared and partly much worse than I feared, with a side of “we’re surprisingly good on 3rd down offense”). The Nicholls game was unpleasantly anomalous to predictions as the 2014 UF game.

  33. down island way

    As I’m in the process of a complete margarita machine overhaul, prior to tomorrow’s early start time…..Senator, could you still be in the BBQ hangover/euphoria which still has you at an imbalance…..uneasy lies the head that wears the crown……news at 3:30ish! GO DAWGS!

  34. The last 2 games were closer than they should have been because our FG kicker is bad and we squandered turnovers. We can’t do anything about one of those but we can the other. I don’t see Ole Miss being that much better than Missouri. It’s not gonna take luck to win tomorrow, just better execution. I expect a really good game if we execute better.

  35. ugafidelis

    What was it you posted some time back about ‘Georgia fans expect someone to come around the corner and kick them in the nuts?’

  36. You watched UGA play Nichols State.
    You watched our offensive line last week.
    You watched Ole Miss play Bama close.

  37. SemperFiDawg

    You’re correct. The intangibles heavily favor a win for us, but it’s the tangibles I worry about. In a word……our lines.

  38. Jared S.

    So many references to alcohol. Chill out, boys. After today we’ll all be drinking Kool-Aid.

    Georgia 30
    Ole Miss 24

    Chubb has 150+ total yards. 2 TDs
    Eason throws for 250+ and 2 TDs
    Shock the world (including CKS) when we sack Kelly four times, once for a safety.
    We win the turnover battle.
    McKenzie runs one back for TD.
    Ole Miss looks feisty for three quarters, then folds like a wet paper bag in 4th.

    Or was this a dream I had?

  39. stoopnagle

    Late to the party, but…

    Ole Miss has big, physical receivers who, like UNC and Mizzou, can get behind our defense and, potentially unlike UNC and Mizzou, catch the ball for big plays.

    Our OL versus their DL is similar to last week, but Ole Miss allegedly has a better defensive backfield.

    Freshman QB on the road.

    BUT! We haven’t lost to these guys in 20 years. It’s a noon kick and we’re the road dog. They had their biggest game of the year last week and lost. They can’t keep a lead. We know how to win. Our Freshman QB is awesome. Also, we have NICK CHUBB.

    • Jared S.

      Nick Nick Nick!

      I feel like after two weeks of being contained he is going to explode today in the best possible way.

      If he is largely ineffectual again today, and it seems to be because the playbook is largely the same, won’t we have to question the sanity of CKS and OCJC?

      I’m hopin they’re working in a few new things to try to give Chubb some space to work with.

  40. Charles

    We have one of the most lopsided match-ups I can recall in their defensive line and our offensive line based on what we’ve seen so far this year. Hope this game represents a turning point but won’t be surprised if not.