The look when you’re 2-10 in your last dozen conference games…
Daily Archives: October 12, 2016
There he goes, using statistics like… um, well, statistics.
I think this is the opposite of building up your opponent’s long snappah.
You need to get out more, son.
This scenario is pretty easy to lay out.
Florida wins out in conference play, beating Missouri and South Carolina at home, Arkansas on the road, and Georgia in Jacksonville.
Meanwhile, Tennessee loses one more time, either to Alabama, Kentucky, or Missouri at home or South Carolina or Vanderbilt on the road.
- Florida’s win probability in these games, per S&P+: South Carolina 92%, Missouri 82%, vs. Georgia 77%, at Arkansas 63%.
- Tennessee’s win probability in its remaining games: Kentucky 90%, at Vanderbilt 89%, at South Carolina 83%, Missouri 77%, Alabama 26%.
There are nine relevant games here, which produces 512 different combinations of wins and losses. Of these 512, five give us exactly four Florida wins and four Tennessee wins.
- Florida wins out, Tennessee beats everybody but Bama: 13.9%
- Florida wins out, Tennessee beats everybody but Missouri: 1.5%
- Florida wins out, Tennessee beats everybody but South Carolina: 1.0%
- Florida wins out, Tennessee beats everybody but Vanderbilt: 0.6%
- Florida wins out, Tennessee beats everybody but Kentucky: 0.5%
ARMAGEDDON ODDS: 17.5%, approximately the current odds of Donald Trump winning the presidential election (speaking of Armageddon …).
Yeah, well, if you compare it to the odds that Georgia would barely squeak by Nicholls, 17.5% looks pretty stout.
Should Georgia lose the Cocktail Party, I’m gonna be enormously miffed if Bert screws this whole thing up.
One more tidbit from that Q&A with the Vandy beat writer:
Looking specifically at the matchups with Georgia, are there any ones in particular you think the Commodores feel good about and can exploit? For instance, pretty much everybody in the league has a better kicking game than the Bulldogs.
Sparks: “Vandy has been a disaster in some areas of special teams lately. It’s had two punts blocked, three other punt snaps mishandled, one punt snap fumbled, two punt returns muffed in last week’s game, etc.
Hoo, boy. This game’s got some serious wince potential.
One of the Vanderbilt beat writers throws out some impressive statistical information about the defense: “In SEC games, Vandy leads the conference in total defense and ranks second in scoring defense.”
Well, shit, says I. Georgia is an SEC team, right? That don’t sound too good. But note the qualifier in the sentence above: “Vandy’s defense was thrown off kilter a little during a three-game stretch against vastly different offenses in Middle Tennessee, Georgia Tech and Western Kentucky…”
“Off kilter a little”? Yeah, well, that’s one way of putting it. Check out the game log for Vandy’s defense, and you’ll see an amazing disparity in yards per play. All three of their SEC opponents averaged less than the 5.56 ypp Vanderbilt’s defense is yielding on the season, while all three non-conference teams managed to average more — in some cases, like Georgia Tech’s, quite a bit more.
This is worth keeping in mind as well. Only two of the teams Vandy has faced so far rank in the top 70 in total offense. The bad news is that Georgia goes into Saturday with the 78th-best mark in that category.
Doesn’t sound pretty, does it?
You may have heard the story about Tim Tebow comforting a fan yesterday watching his Arizona Fall League game after the fan collapsed from an apparent seizure, but maybe not the best part of it.
He sat talking with the man for roughly 15 minutes. “Sorry this happened,” the man said. “Glad I got the chance to meet you,” Tebow replied.
The man, aware that Tebow works as a college football analyst, shifted the conversation to that topic. Tebow asked for his favorite college team and he replied, “Bulldogs.” Raising his voice in mock anger, Tebow said: “Are you kidding me? I don’t know how to respond to that.” He listened intently as the man told him about a major recruit on Georgia’s radar.
There is so much to love here — the guy having the presence of mind to talk Georgia football while waiting for the paramedics, Tebow being a good enough sport to play along, and just a dash of recruiting obsession — for me to pick out my favorite part, but I do love it all. Go Dawgs, indeed.