Gaming out Greg Sankey’s very bad day

Bill C. has the statistical deets.

This scenario is pretty easy to lay out.

Florida wins out in conference play, beating Missouri and South Carolina at home, Arkansas on the road, and Georgia in Jacksonville.

Meanwhile, Tennessee loses one more time, either to Alabama, Kentucky, or Missouri at home or South Carolina or Vanderbilt on the road.

  • Florida’s win probability in these games, per S&P+: South Carolina 92%, Missouri 82%, vs. Georgia 77%, at Arkansas 63%.
  • Tennessee’s win probability in its remaining games: Kentucky 90%, at Vanderbilt 89%, at South Carolina 83%, Missouri 77%, Alabama 26%.

There are nine relevant games here, which produces 512 different combinations of wins and losses. Of these 512, five give us exactly four Florida wins and four Tennessee wins.

  • Florida wins out, Tennessee beats everybody but Bama: 13.9%
  • Florida wins out, Tennessee beats everybody but Missouri: 1.5%
  • Florida wins out, Tennessee beats everybody but South Carolina: 1.0%
  • Florida wins out, Tennessee beats everybody but Vanderbilt: 0.6%
  • Florida wins out, Tennessee beats everybody but Kentucky: 0.5%

ARMAGEDDON ODDS: 17.5%, approximately the current odds of Donald Trump winning the presidential election (speaking of Armageddon …).

Yeah, well, if you compare it to the odds that Georgia would barely squeak by Nicholls, 17.5% looks pretty stout.

Should Georgia lose the Cocktail Party, I’m gonna be enormously miffed if Bert screws this whole thing up.


Filed under SEC Football

43 responses to “Gaming out Greg Sankey’s very bad day

  1. Bulldog Joe

    Watching Florida getting screwed by the SEC refs is going to be fun.


    UF ain’t winning out in the SEC. ..just ain’t happening…UT gonna run out of luck too. That was luck that guy fumbled out of the endzone to even give them a chance vs aTm.

    • 69Dawg

      I wouldn’t call it luck when a player keeps hustling and knocks the ball out. Luck is when the guy just drops the ball for no reason like Pig Howard did. Both UT and UF have it easy on the back end but UF got a walkover in their only real hard game against LSU. Barring a total melt down by Alabama, and they have had some, UT has 2 loses. UF has nobody between them and Atlanta but us and Arky. The SEC should schedule the game on Nov 19th and if LSU does not show up they forfeit. SEC can’t afford look bad in the SECC game like it has the past few years. Dooms day will be the team playing Alabama in the SECC championship game winning with 2 loses. SEC stays home.

      • PTC DAWG

        Your scenario is fine by me…..and we disagree on UT and luck, it happens..UT is the luckiest team going this year. IMHO

  3. Uglydawg

    Tennessee has a lot of injuries. If it’s a war of attrition against Bama..then I think Mizzo’s odds are way understated. If Dobbs should go down, I don’t know if Tennessee beats anybody easily. They just aren’t that great.

  4. Spike

    Mizzoui will upset somebody.

  5. BigD

    The entire SEC East is really bad this year.

  6. IDK, UT getting royally screwed has a certain appeal.

    • DawgDaddy

      I really like that. But I want to beat UF more than I like it.

      • Otto

        Scary thing is UGA actually has a real chance of winning the East. I maybe bad in saying this but…. I want UT and UGA to both win out but I’d rather see Bama hammer UT in the Dome. I don’t see UGA beating Bama and a 2 loss season would be a nice year 1 with hopefully recruiting momentum.

        • Will (The Other One)

          I’d prefer UGA winning out, UT dropping this weekend and then getting whipped again in Atlanta. And if UT and UF both have two losses, but UF has one less win, UT gets to Atlanta on percentage (and head-to-head tiebreaker vs us.) Though the real best-case is Mizzou gets an upset over UF and then they get so disappointed post-WLOCP they lose to SCar.

          • Mayor

            The scenario you described above is actually OK Will. Win 10 games and a bowl for an 11-2 season by the Dawgs. Let UT take it on the chin twice from Bama by 4 TDs each game and end up with a bowl loss so they have a 4 loss year and the world also knows they lucked out beating the Dawgs on the ref-assisted hail mary. That would help Georgia in recruiting.

      • ^^^^ this – I’ll accept the hillbillies in the CG in exchange for a win in Jacksonville

        • Otto

          Agreed a 1st year win in Jacksonville would set a great tone and is likely the highest remaining on field priority at this point.

  7. HVL Dawg

    Senator, you are having a great blogging season.

    I’m thinking you’ll win a post season award.

  8. AusDawg85

    FLA 77% chance to beat us? Why don’t we just tag out and let LSU stand in for us.

    • 86BONE

      LMAO….very good!

    • Macallanlover

      Yes, that seems way off on the odds. FU looked like crap against both Vandy and TN, we have looked that bad 3 times ourselves. Could be a crapshoot in JAX if one of us doesn’t find some magic, but right now neither looks like a 3-1 winner.

  9. SouthernYank

    UT had a ton of injuries, a ton of turnovers, and still almost beat A&M. No one but Bama beats them the rest of the way.

  10. Sanford222view

    I realize I am a homer but is anyone else surprised to see Georgia has only a 33% chance of beating UF? What am I missing here? I would think that game would be much closer to a toss up.

    • Napoleon BonerFart

      Connelly has Florida ranked 10th on his S&P+ rankings. UGA is 47th.

      • Will (The Other One)

        It thinks a lot of the Gators defensively, though based on what UT did to them, I think it’s overestimating them by a lot.
        Meanwhile, that 1% performance vs Nicholls is really dragging down UGA’s total (to put in full perspective how bad S&P+ views that game…Rutgers scored a 23% performance in a loss to Michigan where they only got their first first down with 9 minutes left, down 71-0.)

        • Napoleon BonerFart

          Defense probably has the most to do with it. But special teams is the biggest disparity. Florida is ranked 4th in special teams and UGA is 124th. Yikes.

  11. heyberto

    I think it’s simple for Sankey:

    “Florida, if you can’t work this out, then you are disqualified from the SEC East Crown”.

    Same for LSU, but I don’t think they have a shot at this point.

    Then, see if everyone lawyers up.. talk about a mess.

  12. UGA wins out & the Vols lose to the Tide & Is upset by one of the lesser
    SEC teams on their schedule. Improbable but not impossible. Go Dawgs.

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