Mama, I’ve still got ‘dem third-down conversion blues.

Bill Connelly doesn’t paint a pretty picture here.  The big problem seems to be that, on average, the defense is leaving offenses with a shorter distance to convert than most teams.


Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

17 responses to “Mama, I’ve still got ‘dem third-down conversion blues.

  1. 69Dawg

    Pass rush we don’t have no stink’n pass rush. Either the running abilities of the QB’s we have faced caused Kirby to slow down the pass rush or we are just out manned by every Oline we have faced. I know there is no such thing as holding on a Olineman in a pass rush situation in the SEC unless you are PWG (Playing While Georgia) so that has to be taken into account. I wait to see if we let Vandy’s anemic offense look like Stanford this week. Carter and Bellamy are too skinny to set the edge and make the tackles. Hopefully their lack of stand out performances will cause them to return for their senior year with more weight and experience.

  2. Everyone calls 3rd down the money down. I would suggest 1st down is most important because it determines whether a team gets in front of or behind the chains. Sure, you have to make plays on every down, but when the offense consistently gets into 2nd and 6 or fewer, the defense is going to have a long day. Good defenses win 3rd down … great defenses win 1st down.

  3. Bright Idea

    Teams playing nickel on 1st down with 2 deep safeties are essentially abandoning the LOS, compounded by running QBs. Better have 4 studs on the line or there will be lots of third and shorts.

  4. tonyqbr

    Yep, we have sucked on 3rd downs, especially vs the 2 teams still ranked, Ole Miss and Tenn.

    Against ranked teams in 2016 we are ranked:
    11th in the conference on off 3rd conv rate
    9th in the conf on def 3rd down conv rate

  5. Cojones

    Third down is an angst down for us now. We forget that there are four downs that are used sometimes, therefore, the angst need not be as big as we make it. So many factors and differing Ds go into a 3rd down O play that also relies on the best play call by the coach for this team. I lay 3rd down squarely in the coaches’ laps and want to see improvement just like everyone else since the coaches are monitoring each game and their play call on 3rd down is the most important thing they do for winning the game.

    The O Coach and the D Coach at UGA had best pick up the slack or we will see a great waste in team enthusiasm and thus, fan enthusiasm. You don’t even want to tempt the dark angels hovering over 3rd and 4th downs because your fan support will call Beelzebub on your butt on a moment’s notice.

  6. DawgPhan

    Is there any statistical category that UGA is good in?

    Oh I found one…we are #4 in the country in Total TOs gained. Not margin, but gained.

    so there’s that.

    • tonyqbr

      Kirby was brought in for 1 thing:

      Kirby is 0-2 so far in those SEC ranked teams matchups.

      Likely to be 0-3 after the UF game.

      Ultimately, that’s the key stat that matters for Kirby’s longevity. So far, utter failure at why he was brought to UGA, But he can still
      ride the excuse of it’s his first year.

      • I felt like the writing was on the wall for Kirby after the uninspiring g-day game. Knew by the middle of the second quarter. Let’s fire up the coaching search again.

        • tonyqbr

          If he keeps going winless vs SEC ranked teams in 2016 & 2017, we definately got the wrong guy.

          We’ll know by the end of 2017.

    • Will (The Other One)

      Some of the rushing defense stats are pretty good.

  7. D.N. Nation

    So is this a new troll, or a repurposing of an old one?

  8. Mdcgtp

    I love analytics, but somehow, Bill C’s analysis always seems off to me. First of all the differential is irrelevant as a teams offense and defense don’t face one another. This the composite does not make much sense.

    Ultimately, yards per play and it’s differential (I.e, how much more or less is a team gaining per play than its opponents) sums it all up. Taking it further, one can look at those figures of a relative basis, which looks at how our ypp gained and surrendered compare to our opponents averages for the season. Our ypp is not very good on offense because we don’t hit many long pass plays, and we have not had many long runs either. On defense, our ypp is skewed a bit by the ole miss game, which adds 0.5 ypp to our season average. Though if we include and nornalize Ole Miss, Ole Miss adds about 0.3 to our ypp.

    Bill creates a lot of data, and lot of it is nonsensical, particularly his “percentile” performances which consistently over states the results against really bad teams. I can’t tell you how many of his previews have a reference to highs when the highs are beating a team like Rutgers or Purdue or Illinois.

    We have an incredibly inconsistent OL, QB, and mediocre WRs. Add it all up, and we are not going to look like the teams that AM11 lead with all our weapons until our passing game improves.

    As for the defense, we are pretty good against the run, but the lack of a pass rush stresses a secondary that is not elite. We have opted not to blitz, as Roquan and Patrick are still inexperienced and getting better in coverage.

    Our second half schedule is a bit easier than the first half. I also believe the cumulative effect of our physical practices as well as growing player “buy in” to what Kirby wants will lead to across the board improvement (yet potentially volatile week-to-week) in the second half of the season. You don’t really know how good the teams you faced were until further in the season. Similarly, our results reflect who we are as of this moment, but they don’t capture areas for improvement…like say Nick and Sony at 100% playing together, and being fresh due to Herrien’s contributions.

    • tonyqbr

      “Our second half schedule is a bit easier than the first half.”

      Played 2 teams that are currently ranked in first 6 games, Ole Miss & Tenn, lost to both 0-2, beat up on the little guys, 4-0.

      Back 1/2 could be more of the same, losses to the 2 teams currently ranked, UF & Aub, wins against the 4 little guys.

      8-0 vs unranked teams, 0-4 vs ranked teams, looks very likely

      I hope we don’t go 0-4 in the 4 games vs SEC ranked teams but that’s what’s projected in the ESPN fpi.

      If the Tar Hills lose to Miami, which they are underdogs, I don’t see how they get back into the top 25 with no tough games after that vs ranked teams.

  9. lakedawg

    Beat up on the little guys, did you watch Nickels and Missou?

  10. Riverdawg

    Great title senator, Deep Elem Blues? Levon Helm Band at Merlefest? Love that track….

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