Judge not Kirby Smart, lest ye be judged.

You have to admit it’s a little different hearing an AJ-C opinion writer urge Georgia fans not to believe the worst.

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26 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Media Punditry/Foibles

26 responses to “Judge not Kirby Smart, lest ye be judged.

  1. Bob

    True, but they too cannot resist the ridiculous comparison with Nick’s first year at Alabama. They were 6-7 in 06 and were on probation. There simply is zero comparison between 2006 Alabama and 2015 Georgia.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. My guess is the Georgia fans are no longer clicking on AJC articles. I was really surprised how more positive their tone this week were after the loss to Vandy.

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  3. Walt

    How many first year coaches inherited a team that had 10 wins the previous season?

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  4. Jared S.

    I find it interesting that he highlights 8 NC-winning coaches: Bowden, Saban, Paterno, Bryant, Dooley, Spurrier, Royal and Wilkinson.

    It took Bowden, Paterno, and Dooley a loooooong time to build their respective programs and win a National Championship:

    Bowden – 18 years
    Paterno – 17 years
    Dooley – 12 years

    Saban, Bryant, Spurrier, and Royal’s NCs came more quickly after first taking the coaching job at their respective NC programs:

    Saban – 4 years at LSU
    Saban – 3 years at Bama
    Bryant – 4 years
    Spurrier – 7 years
    Royal – 7 years

    But Saban, Bryant, Spurrier and Royal had a lot of total head coaching experience prior to winning their first NC:

    Saban – 11 years before NC at LSU
    Saban – 16 years before NC at Bama (including 2 years in NFL)
    Bryant – 17 years
    Spurrier – 13 years (including 3 years in USFL)
    Royal – 11 years (including 1 in CFL)

    The only one of the lot that won an NC relatively early in their overall HC career – and at their first HC job – was Wilkinson at Texas.

    Wilkinson – 4 years

    But that was in 1950.

    I don’t think any of these examples should assuage the fears of UGA fans. Because I think 1) It shows that if we expect Smart to build UGA into a NC-competing powerhouse it may take many, many years and 2) It lends creedance to the idea that Smart may very well win a NC….somewhere other than UGA. =(

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  5. ApalachDawg

    Jared S. nice data summary.
    So if we are saying the Kirby/GA Process is v2.0 of the Saban/Bama Process, wouldn’t logic dictate that in 2018 or 2019 we are NC? Isn’t that judgement day/year?
    On purpose, I am dismissing Saban’s other HC stops because I think Kirby will have the recruits in house by 2018/2019 to make a NC run. I guess the question is will the in-game head coaching decisions increase/grow with the talent level at UGA over the same period. I’d like to see that coaching growth start on the banks of the St Johns next Saturday…

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    • Jared S.

      I think it’s realistic to say that Kirby Smart has the experience, drive, plan, recruiting abilities, and current pieces in place to build a team (not just players, but coaching staff, culture, the whole 9 yards) to compete for an NC by ’18 or ’19.

      But I think it’s also realistic to recognize that it’s a long row to hoe. Even if everything goes according to Kirby’s plan and he lands a Top 5 class each of the next three years, I’d put his chance of winning an NC by 2019 somewhere around 15%.

      He’s in the nation’s best conference. And to win the CFP NC he basically has to win the SECCG. Then Beat the Big 10 Champion at some point. And perhaps the best of either the Big 12 or Pac 12.

      It’s tough, boys. I maintain that it doesn’t just require skill and obsession with detail. It requires some luck. And you can do everything “right” but still fall short.

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      • Silver Creek Dawg

        Frankly, the “luck” portion you reference above is exactly why it’s more important to me to win SEC titles than nattys. We can control winning the SEC far more than we can control the beauty contest used to determine the national champion.

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        • Thanks Jared that was some interesting info, It reaffirms mine and many others concerns about this hire. Why the hell is a superior (not the greatest but clearly superior) program providing even a alum with this on the job training. If the average experience before winning a national championship is approx. 13 years why do we hire one with 0. Let’s let him get some HC experience at some place like ,o I don’t know ….Colorado State. .
          This really is a very good compilation but Wilkinson coached Oklahoma not TX….doesn’t change the import in any way

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        • Well said, Silver … I would take my chances but just get to Atlanta. Almost anything can happen in one game.

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        • Debby Balcer

          If we win the SEC championship game we probably are in the Natty game do you mean win our division or the SEC?

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  6. Dawgtwo

    The bar is higher for CKS because he followed a coach who generally could be counted on to win 9 or more games a year, and won 10 the year he was let go. Whatever the record, however, folks wanted an end to what they saw as underperforming on the field and on the sidelines. Smart was brought in to take it up a notch from there. That’s how he will be judged. The bar is quite high.

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  7. JCDAWG83

    I ignore the NC thing. Win the SEC and the NC will take care of itself. If Kirby can’t win the SEC by the end of the ’19 season, ’20 if there are a rash of injuries, it will be time to move on to someone else.

    These guys get paid too much to “almost” win something. Richt was the king of “almost”.

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    • Debby Balcer

      If we join a coaching carousel we will turn into TN. Unless Kirby tanks after this year and gets to ten year seasons we do not need to play musical coaches.

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      • Mayor

        Debby, I have to disagree with you on that issue. Georgia’s history is that when we make bad hires we stick with them too long (See Goff, Ray).What we have to do is give Kirby a fair chance, give him all he needs to be successful, and then see how much he achieves. If he hasn’t done something significant to show he has the Dawgs on the championship track within 4 years he needs to go. No need to leave him twisting in the wind for any longer than that like we did with Goff. We also need to ask ourselves to define “successful.” We got rid of a 10 wins a year HC in a season when he won 10 games because that wasn’t good enough–he wasn’t winning championships. If Kirby has results similar to Mark Richt are we going to keep him? Kirby has already demonstrated a proclivity for end of game screw-ups similar to Mark Richt’s, which is really what I think cost CMR his job. If Mark Richt had managed to get the ball in the end zone in the 2012 SECCG without the clock running out (not to mention other screw-ups like the “pooch-kickoff” in the 2014 Tech game, letting the clock run out in the 2001 Auburn game, etc.—I could go on and on but mercifully won’t) we wouldn’t even be having this conversation. I don’t think it will become an issue though. Kirby appears to be another Johnny Griffith. After 3 years max everybody will be howling for him to be gone.

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