You have to admit it’s a little different hearing an AJ-C opinion writer urge Georgia fans not to believe the worst.
Filed under Georgia Football, Media Punditry/Foibles
True, but they too cannot resist the ridiculous comparison with Nick’s first year at Alabama. They were 6-7 in 06 and were on probation. There simply is zero comparison between 2006 Alabama and 2015 Georgia.
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My guess is the Georgia fans are no longer clicking on AJC articles. I was really surprised how more positive their tone this week were after the loss to Vandy.
Maybe one of our new “analysts” finally got to the ajc editors.
Yep. Only took 90 days.
How many first year coaches inherited a team that had 10 wins the previous season?
Again, it was the wrong 10 games! A trained monkey could have won 11 with last year’s schedule. The fact that last year’s schedule is the same (except for some team called the Tide) as this year’s is irrelevant.
Get with the Process®!
Russ you might want to reassess the schedule comparisons between last year and this year.
You need to turn on your sarcasm meter.
Yeah. Sarcasm through the roof.
It seems quite telling to me that it is difficult to tell what’s sarcasm and what’s not among Georgia fans these days.
True. I would say we DO have a trained monkey now.
I find it interesting that he highlights 8 NC-winning coaches: Bowden, Saban, Paterno, Bryant, Dooley, Spurrier, Royal and Wilkinson.
It took Bowden, Paterno, and Dooley a loooooong time to build their respective programs and win a National Championship:
Bowden – 18 years
Paterno – 17 years
Dooley – 12 years
Saban, Bryant, Spurrier, and Royal’s NCs came more quickly after first taking the coaching job at their respective NC programs:
Saban – 4 years at LSU
Saban – 3 years at Bama
Bryant – 4 years
Spurrier – 7 years
Royal – 7 years
But Saban, Bryant, Spurrier and Royal had a lot of total head coaching experience prior to winning their first NC:
Saban – 11 years before NC at LSU
Saban – 16 years before NC at Bama (including 2 years in NFL)
Bryant – 17 years
Spurrier – 13 years (including 3 years in USFL)
Royal – 11 years (including 1 in CFL)
The only one of the lot that won an NC relatively early in their overall HC career – and at their first HC job – was Wilkinson at Texas.
Wilkinson – 4 years
But that was in 1950.
I don’t think any of these examples should assuage the fears of UGA fans. Because I think 1) It shows that if we expect Smart to build UGA into a NC-competing powerhouse it may take many, many years and 2) It lends creedance to the idea that Smart may very well win a NC….somewhere other than UGA. =(
Not sure the OU or UT folks would appreciate you putting Wilkinson at Texas. Sort of like putting Dodd at UGA.
Great post/analysis, though.
What does it say about me that Oklahoma an Texas are one and the same to me? hahaha
Remind me–how long did it take Gene Chizic to win a nattie at Auburn?
Jared S. nice data summary.
So if we are saying the Kirby/GA Process is v2.0 of the Saban/Bama Process, wouldn’t logic dictate that in 2018 or 2019 we are NC? Isn’t that judgement day/year?
On purpose, I am dismissing Saban’s other HC stops because I think Kirby will have the recruits in house by 2018/2019 to make a NC run. I guess the question is will the in-game head coaching decisions increase/grow with the talent level at UGA over the same period. I’d like to see that coaching growth start on the banks of the St Johns next Saturday…
I think it’s realistic to say that Kirby Smart has the experience, drive, plan, recruiting abilities, and current pieces in place to build a team (not just players, but coaching staff, culture, the whole 9 yards) to compete for an NC by ’18 or ’19.
But I think it’s also realistic to recognize that it’s a long row to hoe. Even if everything goes according to Kirby’s plan and he lands a Top 5 class each of the next three years, I’d put his chance of winning an NC by 2019 somewhere around 15%.
He’s in the nation’s best conference. And to win the CFP NC he basically has to win the SECCG. Then Beat the Big 10 Champion at some point. And perhaps the best of either the Big 12 or Pac 12.
It’s tough, boys. I maintain that it doesn’t just require skill and obsession with detail. It requires some luck. And you can do everything “right” but still fall short.
Frankly, the “luck” portion you reference above is exactly why it’s more important to me to win SEC titles than nattys. We can control winning the SEC far more than we can control the beauty contest used to determine the national champion.
Thanks Jared that was some interesting info, It reaffirms mine and many others concerns about this hire. Why the hell is a superior (not the greatest but clearly superior) program providing even a alum with this on the job training. If the average experience before winning a national championship is approx. 13 years why do we hire one with 0. Let’s let him get some HC experience at some place like ,o I don’t know ….Colorado State. .
This really is a very good compilation but Wilkinson coached Oklahoma not TX….doesn’t change the import in any way
Well said, Silver … I would take my chances but just get to Atlanta. Almost anything can happen in one game.
If we win the SEC championship game we probably are in the Natty game do you mean win our division or the SEC?
The bar is higher for CKS because he followed a coach who generally could be counted on to win 9 or more games a year, and won 10 the year he was let go. Whatever the record, however, folks wanted an end to what they saw as underperforming on the field and on the sidelines. Smart was brought in to take it up a notch from there. That’s how he will be judged. The bar is quite high.
The bar is incredibly high. He better hope those boosters who got him the job are willing to hold off the wolves if he doesn’t get over the bar.
I ignore the NC thing. Win the SEC and the NC will take care of itself. If Kirby can’t win the SEC by the end of the ’19 season, ’20 if there are a rash of injuries, it will be time to move on to someone else.
These guys get paid too much to “almost” win something. Richt was the king of “almost”.
If we join a coaching carousel we will turn into TN. Unless Kirby tanks after this year and gets to ten year seasons we do not need to play musical coaches.
Debby, I have to disagree with you on that issue. Georgia’s history is that when we make bad hires we stick with them too long (See Goff, Ray).What we have to do is give Kirby a fair chance, give him all he needs to be successful, and then see how much he achieves. If he hasn’t done something significant to show he has the Dawgs on the championship track within 4 years he needs to go. No need to leave him twisting in the wind for any longer than that like we did with Goff. We also need to ask ourselves to define “successful.” We got rid of a 10 wins a year HC in a season when he won 10 games because that wasn’t good enough–he wasn’t winning championships. If Kirby has results similar to Mark Richt are we going to keep him? Kirby has already demonstrated a proclivity for end of game screw-ups similar to Mark Richt’s, which is really what I think cost CMR his job. If Mark Richt had managed to get the ball in the end zone in the 2012 SECCG without the clock running out (not to mention other screw-ups like the “pooch-kickoff” in the 2014 Tech game, letting the clock run out in the 2001 Auburn game, etc.—I could go on and on but mercifully won’t) we wouldn’t even be having this conversation. I don’t think it will become an issue though. Kirby appears to be another Johnny Griffith. After 3 years max everybody will be howling for him to be gone.
“We’re always looking for the aggregate of marginal gains.” — Kirby Smart, The Athletic, 7/16/19
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