Bud Elliott has a somewhat provocative post up about what the offseason hiring market may look like and suggests some schools have some soul searching in store.
If you’re an AD who has a coach likely to enter 2017 on the hot seat, consider making the move this season.
Schools willing to pull the trigger now have all the leverage. Coaching stars burn hot, but fast. Great success at a mid-major job can be fleeting. Many coaches in this cycle cannot afford to be picky as they try to cash in their stock when it is hottest.
For a coach having success at a lesser school on the backs of a senior-laden roster, it’s time to go.
And for that reason, an average job could be filled in 2016 by a much stronger coach than might be available come 2017, when the market could again go crazy.
Take the ACC, for example.
Virginia Tech, Miami, Syracuse, and Virginia made inspired hires in 2015. Unless the schools who did not make those are very confident in who they have running the show, they should consider making changes now, especially if they are likely to drop the pink slip in 2017 anyway.
Some jobs in the ACC are not top-25 jobs, but are certainly top-45 jobs. And in this market, it’s possible that those teams could land coaches like those typically signed only by top-25 programs. It’s taking advantage of the market to make an upgrade.
If you’re Georgia Tech, and you’re watching Kirby Smart shift Georgia’s recruiting machine into overdrive with the No. 3 class nationally, are you confident Paul Johnson is still the right coach? Or could you swing for the fences with a Chad Morris type?
That’s a tough call for Tech’s new AD. It’s my understanding that Johnson’s buyout is still pretty steep after this season, but drops significantly in another year. If Elliott’s right about how things may be shaping up this offseason, what do you do if you’re him?