Was Nick Chubb improving while we weren’t paying attention?

From PFF’s Gordon McGuinness’ post about the SEC’s ten best returning players:

5. Georgia HB Nick Chubb

There’s somewhat of a leap to be made with Chubb, in that 2016 wasn’t his most impressive season, but he was coming off a serious knee injury. Despite that, the way he ended the season gives a realistic expectation that he can be back to his best in 2017, with 20 of his 39 missed tackles forced coming in the final five games of the year. Over the past three seasons, Chubb has averaged a forced missed tackle once every 4.3 carries, and has averaged 3.7 yards per carry after contact…  [Emphasis added.]

If you do the math, that means Chubb’s shiftiness was back on track, career average-wise, over those last five games.  If that wasn’t a mirage, with another offseason to prepare, imagine what kind of season he could have running behind an offensive line that’s merely competent.

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27 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

27 responses to “Was Nick Chubb improving while we weren’t paying attention?

  1. Or with an offensive coordinator who has a clue about what he’s doing. Maybe the best thing for the offense was to get I Haz a Fat Pencil off the sidelines and into the box.

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  2. Bulldog Joe

    Happy to see Nick return and his work ethic will continue to make him tougher to tackle.

    Given the amount of time it takes offensive linemen to develop strength and cohesiveness, the question is how many of those broken tackles will continue to be behind the line of scrimmage?

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    • dawginnj

      To me, yards per carry is more important than breaking tackles, because if you can’t average more than 4.4 vs the worst 5 rush defenses, something’s wrong with his knee or his mental game. Chubb doesn’t pass the eye test for sure. I agree, better coaching and a better offensive line would also be nice, but neither are happening in 2017 as it’s 3 frosh on the off line, and Chaney somehow did not get fired and returns for Act 2.

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      • Mayor

        I agree about Chaney. I’m not sure about the O-Line not being better though. Depending on who the starters end up being we have 3 guys who are redshirt freshmen (academic sophs) and one who is a redshirt soph (academic junior). Plus, some of the new freshmen were really good with one being the top player in the nation. And they all weigh over 300 pounds. If Pittman can’t make a functional OL out of that group the guy needs to move on.

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  3. I honestly don’t think Chubb improved, not necessarily a bad thing, btw. I think it was more about the OL and OC actually having decent games.

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  4. W Cobb Dawg

    Hard to say which has had more detrimental effect on Chubb’s career, the injury or the offensive coaching.

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  5. Cojones

    Didn’t Chubb and Michele go to the OC and talk blocking scheme change from man-to-man back to zone blocking in the last 5 games? Haven’t we been promised more zone blocking (used by Bobo) by the O-line in ’17? Anyone else get that message?

    Of course, this scenario could have impinged on my mind when too many cookies were consumed.

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    • dawginnj

      Good observation. Yes, they asked to run the ball more AFTER the UF game (how convenient?).

      Chubb was Jekyll & Hyde in 2017:
      6 yards per carry vs non conf teams
      4 yards per carry vs conf teams

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  6. dawginnj

    My analysis, per cfbstats.com, shows on Chubb in 2016:
    1- He got 4 yards a carry vs top 5 rush defenses
    (LLaf, Aub, UF, Vandy, Nich St)
    2- He got 4.4 yards per carry vs 5 worst rush defenses
    (Ky, Mizz, Miss, Tenn, NC)
    3- He averaged 4.92 ypc in the first 6 games in 2016
    4- He averaged 4.6 ypc in his last 7 games in 2016

    He did not look healthy to me except for the first game which was likely due to facing the #109 rush defense in NCaro..

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  7. dawginnj

    I’ll say this Chubb is much better option than Brian Herrien.

    Herrien ran well in his first 5 games, when he got 7 or more touches.

    What happened to him in his last 6 starts yards per carry?
    .50 ypc 2 ypc 2 ypc 1 ypc 3.25 ypc .50 ypc

    Sony finished strong, he impressed me.

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  8. I don’t know we’re losing SO much talent on that offensive line: https://www.dawgnation.com/football/one-georgia-player-invited-nfl-combine

    I’d say our incoming offensive class would garner more attention.

    In case you’re wondering Alabama has 10 invitees.

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    • dawginnj

      I’m not actually worried about the rush game so much, UF has shown it has no correlate with winning the East.

      What does win the East?
      1. defense
      2- pass offense

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      • In total defense, Florida was third in the East in 2015.
        Missouri was third in the East in 2014 and fifth in 2013.
        Georgia was fourth in 2012.

        Bottom line — two years doth not a pronouncement make.

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        • dawginnj

          Agree. Depends on the goal.

          If step 1 is win the East, the UF SEC East Cahmpion formula under McElwain:
          1- great defense
          2- passing offense better than average

          But yes, the way to win the SEC is:
          1- run the ball
          2- great defense

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        • Since 2003 only one team has won the east and not either led the East, or been 2nd or 3rd by an insignificant statistical margin, in ppg. allowed: UGA in 2012.

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          • dawginnj

            UF has only averaged 23 ppg of offense in 201-5-2016. Not good at all.

            But, their winning East formula, to get more granular seems to be:
            1- throw for @210 yards-UGA was 193 yards per game in 2016
            2- hold teams to under 19 scoring on defense (top 10 nationally both years)-UGA was 24 in ppg defense in 2016
            3- at least average special teams (top 20 in 2016, average in 2015) UGA was 113 in 2016

            So, to win with the UF McElwain Formula:
            1- Huge improvement on special teams
            2- Minor improvement on defensive scoring
            3- minor improvement on pass yards

            Or to win with Bama:
            1- Huge leap in defensive scoring need to get to top 5
            2- Huge leap in off rush–finish top 2 in conf in rushing

            I think the UF plan is more realistic for 207, in my opinion, only way Kirby will do it in 2017.

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          • dawginnj

            UF finished last or next to last in SEC rush yards in 2015 & 23016, and won the East both times, finishing #113 in rush yards nationally both years.

            Again, no worries about the UGA rush game. It’s not necessary to win the East.

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            • Mayor

              Against a weak East–that’s how FU won with a bad rushing attack. How’d they do in the SECCG? And when they had to play a real team like FSU? It was an anomaly.

              Like

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