How well does a psychological ploy work if the subjects believe it’s a ploy?
Daily Archives: April 3, 2017
So, with that spiffy new stadium being built in Las Vegas, what say you, NCAA, about the college football playoffs getting a shot there?
Down the road even further is the possibility of hosting a College Football Playoff championship game, however NCAA president Mark Emmert said Thursday that Las Vegas will not be eligible to host a playoff game when the next round of bidding for the 2019-22 games takes place. The NCAA sports wagering policy prohibits a state that allows single-game sports betting from hosting NCAA championship events, however, it should be noted that the playoff operates separately from the NCAA and could allow an event in Las Vegas before other sports are allowed.
That ought to chap Emmert’s ass.
“We have not begun the process of considering cities to host the CFP national championship after 2020 in New Orleans,” College Football Playoff executive director Bill Hancock said in a statement. “So it would not be appropriate to address the matter now.”
In the local vernacular, that’s a lock, then. Thanks for letting us all know, Bill.
In response to my Saturday post about Fromm pushing Eason, a Twitter thread popped up in which Dan Wolken shared this:
To which my first thought was wondering whether Eason’s inaugural season was worse than I thought. Plenty of commenters here have already compared it to the last time time Georgia started a true freshman, Stafford’s 2006 season, and found that it was a better one statistically.
Then, there’s also this chart Phil Steele compiled of 2016’s top 50 true freshmen quarterbacks and their impact on the last season. The first thing to notice there is that the vast majority of them either redshirted or played very little, as only six of those on the list had more than 100 pass attempts. (BREAKING: Starting as a true freshman quarterback isn’t easy.)
Far be it from me to say Eason had a season for the ages in 2016, but notice that no quarterback who attempted more than 100 throws managed to top a 140 passer rating. Jalen Hurts did turn in a fine year when you factor in his running stats, but he had a much better surrounding cast than did his Georgia counterpart.
All of which brings me back to the point I’ve been making about this whole Eason/Fromm deal, which is that the odds of replacing one true freshman quarterback’s season with another that will turn out significantly better seem rather long. Even if we assume for the sake of argument that Fromm’s intangibles exceed Eason’s (who, remember, should have finished last season with two game-winning touchdown throws), he’s still going to be working with the same playbook and offensive coordinator, most of the same receiving corps and another rebuilding exercise on the offensive line. Somebody needs to explain to me how that’s a recipe for success.
I’m not trying to knock Jake Fromm here. He appears to have a great future at Georgia. But unless he turns out to have an unprecedented rookie season as a roaring success, the only two things I can see likely resulting from him being named the starting quarterback over Eason is that Georgia would be headed for a second straight throwaway year and Eason would be headed to another football program.
Speaking of which, here was my second thought after reading what Wolken tweeted.
(Sixty one years ago today), Elvis Presley appeared on ABC-TV’s ‘The Milton Berle Show’ live from the flight deck of the USS Hancock in San Diego, California. He performed ‘Heartbreak Hotel’ ‘Shake Rattle And Roll’ and ‘Blue Suede Shoes.’ It was estimated that one out of every four Americans saw the show.
Phil Steele does a pretty good job predicting what the first AP Top 10 of the season will look like.
As mentioned on Monday, my predicted AP Top 10 was a perfect 10-for-10 in 2016! The EIGHT year totals are very strong. When I predict the AP Top 10 in February/March (about a HALF YEAR ahead of the actual AP poll), I have now hit on 76 of 80 teams. That means hitting all 10 teams in four of the eight years and missing by just one team in the other four years. Once again, predicting the top ten teams in the AP poll 5-6 MONTHS in advance, the record is now 76 out of 80 or 95%!
Now, obviously, that first AP Top 10 is no guaranteed predictor of success for the rest of the season, but it’s at least a decent indication of the nation’s better teams… which is why Steele’s projection for 2017 is making me pause a bit in considering how the SEC East might play out this season.
Here is my 2017 Projected AP Top 10.
2. Ohio State
3. Florida State
7. Penn State
I look at Florida and see a team that’s got a fair number of significant questions: a rebuild job coming on defense (including a new coordinator), uncertainty at quarterback and a slide in recruiting over the past couple of seasons. I don’t think the Gators are going to be a bad team by any means — after the past two years, you can’t help but have a solid measure of respect for McElwain — but top ten in the country and second best in the SEC is a little more than I was expecting.
Is it just me, or does that surprise you, too? And if it’s a legit impression, what, if anything does that do for your assessment of Georgia’s chances in the East in 2017?