Pythagoras is impressed with Kirby Smart.

If you had “5-7 was more likely than 11-2” as the pick in the Oh, How Georgia’s 2016 Season Could Have Gone Pool, Matt Melton is here to tell you that you may be on to something.

And here are the APR standings sorted by division with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, SEC teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

Look who’s number one!  The question is whether that could be chalked up to coaching or luck.  We’ll see what regression to the mean has to say about that in 2017.


Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

6 responses to “Pythagoras is impressed with Kirby Smart.

  1. Trbodawg

    I was told there wouldn’t be any math. . .


  2. I am not too impressed with APR. It does not count non-offensive touchdowns. I get it, but then again, what good is a football statistic it if you can’t account for a defense like the one Bama fielded last year? They scored like 13 or so TD’s right?


  3. RCBRick

    I think all the stats that attempt to capture this agree that UGA was not a good 8 win team. The 68th finish in S&P+ was a good 30-40 spots lower than any Georgia team this millenium.


  4. D.N. Nation

    Georgia had the first three scores to lead UL-Lafayette 21-0. In the second-to-last game of the year, 21-0 was UGA’s biggest lead of the season. (They’d later only win the game by 14.)


  5. reality check here

    The correlation coefficient between results and APR in the SEC East sucks. Vanderbilt second? Really?

    Better correlation in the West but overall I say his methodology has little to no merit.


  6. Mayor

    So….UGA overachieved in ’16. Is that what he’s saying?