Easy money

Yes, you’re reading this correctly.

Bovada has better odds for Georgia to win the national championship this season than Clemson.

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27 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

27 responses to “Easy money

  1. I would love for it to happen but I just don’t see us winning any SEC or NC with Chaney as OC.

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    • DoubleDawg1318

      Two words: Kyle Shanahan

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      • That’s funny to compare Jim Chaney to Kyle Shanahan. I hope you’re right, but my comparison is that Shanahan is a head coach now and Chaney has never even sniffed a head coaching job. Any offensive coordinator (Norm Chow excluded) who does anything of note becomes a head coaching candidate. It should speak volumes that Chaney wasn’t even a head coach candidate after coaching Drew Brees.

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  2. gastr1

    If they think Clemson winning had more to do with DeShaun Watson than almost any other factor, I can’t say I disagree.

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  3. rchris

    If the talent we’ve signed plays as good as advertised, there’s no reason we can’t beat every team on our regular season schedule this year, with good coaching. If they play better than advertised, with great coaching they could run the last 3 and win it all. Kirby always challenges his assistants and the players, and he even challenges us. We’ve responded Kirby. Now it’s your turn.

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  4. truck

    I see no mention of The Genius. Mark Bradley wept.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Cojones

    Meh. All based entirely on talent ranking of players. Nothing to do with the coaching (Clemson is proof enough when comparing to the coaching above them) So much luck goes into teams winning or getting to the 4 teams that are picked for NC play; odds are better for any team to win such that they approach the odds of indicting the POTUS for treason. But, if you place $10 – $100 on each of the top 12, what are the odds of losing?

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  6. Uglydawg

    Michigan and PSU both overrated. Of course, UGA may also be.

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    • Macallanlover

      I agree State Penn is the most overrated of the top group, they have a solid RB but not good enough to win their own division, imo.

      UGA is also over valued but the logic may be the experienced talent will get them to the SECCG. Notice no one on our schedule is even close, other than Auburn. Winner in Atlnata will be in the 4 team playoff so an upset of one team gets you close. I don’t know anyone that feels Clemson was the best team last year, they stumbled through the regular season and stole one (with a little help from a Saban brain fart in changing OCs the last week due to emotions, and a broken leg from a RB that would have sealed the deal in the 4th quarter.) Even the chance of a short 3 game streak doesn’t make me think UGA at 20-1 is an attractive bet. Possible, but a longer shot than the odds indicate.

      Defense is a great equalizer and we are loaded there but I don’t see Chaney capable of matching wits with the better defenses to get through Atlanta, mush less two additional tests. I can see us at maybe 10-1 to win the SEC because it looks like that means pulling off just one upset.

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  7. ApalachDawg

    Folks, I’m keeping my predictions of the Dawgs finally curb stomping some of our opponents.

    2017 will be a distant memory.

    Because if we don’t win the East this year, I don’t know when it will happen. South Cackalack gives me the biggest concern.

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  8. fastcarsslowwomen

    On the pessimistic side, the UF & Tn & Notre Dame games as 50/50 toss ups (via fpi math), throw in a potential expected loss to Auburn. Auburn’s betting odds are lower because they would have to beat Saban 2x but they are expected to handily beat Georgia (espn fpi has them at @75% odds to beat Georgia). You also have all 5 key games as away games: @Notre Dame, @Tn, @UF, @Auburn and @G Tech. G Tech over the last 5 years has become a 50/50 game with close games or double overtimes. On the hopeful side, Bovada likely has Georgia with higher odds than Tn & UF because of a better recruiting class, Asst Coordinator coaching continuity and a returning Qb, something neither Tn or UF have this season. Looking at the 3 reasons wqhy Bovada is likey high on Georgia: 1) recruiting class: If the recruits end up having big impact at positions needed most at wr, oline, or qb, then I think Georgia could have a magical year, otherwise it won’t mean much of anything. 2) coaching continuity:I have less hope in Chaney and Beamer at offense and special teams even though you get coaching continuity so I do get less terminology to learn. 3) Returning Qb: Hopefully games like Ole Miss and South Carolina were learning curves and we’ll see the North Carolina type f performances from Eason. If he falters, I like Fromm, so either way, I can see why folks have confidence in Georgia at Qb, either Eason gets a lot better, or another elite Qb Fromm takes over.Georgia should be fine at Qb as long as Kirby’s willing to change if thing go bad with Eason.

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    • Bovada likely has Georgia with higher odds than Tn & UF because of a better recruiting class, Asst Coordinator coaching continuity and a returning Qb, something neither Tn or UF have this season.

      That isn’t how Vegas works. At all.

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      • PTCDAWG

        He’s on a roll, let him go…

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        • fastcarsslowwomen

          Haa, neglected to mention another reason to favor the dawgs in the East is schedule, Tn gets Bama & LSU, where the Dawgs get Auburn & Miss St. Tn will really struggle this year, like 7-5 or 6-6. Tn should lose to Ky or Mizzou, UF, Georgia, Bama, and LSU. Florida gets Michigan, Tn, Texas A & M, LSU, Georgia, and FSU, also @Ky, @Mizzou, @S Caro. Georgia only has really 4 games to focus on Notre Dame, Tn, UF, and Auburn.

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      • fastcarsslowwomen

        I get it’s about money. Here’s how it works: what Bovada is looking for is a team most people only see the optimistic points (I would imagine they are primarily recruiting class, coaching continuity, tow great running backs, solid defense almost all returning and returning qb) aka logical fallacies. Where bovada sees the downsides too (like the 50/50 games on the schedule, the 5 away games vs the top 5 teams on the schedule, lack of offensive production, poor special teams, struggling qb, no experience at wr, losing several offensive lineman, lost key defensive player, losing main special teams player and wr, etc). The dawgs are the perfect team for Bovada because they are lots of downsides but enough upsides to make bettors overlook the downsides.

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        • No, you don’t get it. Bovada looks for a line that encourages the money to fall evenly on both side of the bet. All this tells you — and it was the point I was trying to make — is that the betting public is more enthusiastic about Georgia’s chances than most of us here at the blog are.

          You are trying to sound like someone who knows more than he really does. First Rule of Holes is good advice you should take here.

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          • fastcarsslowwomen

            I used to think that until I heard and interview with the main guy at one of the hotels on how he does his research. He said of course we’re here to make money, so we set the odds where we can make the most money. And he said he makes a living by finding teams that LOOK like 50/50 bets, but he has something in his research that tilts the odds towards him. But yes, to maximize money the team needs ot be perceived as 50/50, you’re right. You have yet to share all the reasons why Bovada has Georgia at 20:1, I’d like to see you’re thinking here since your so knowledgible about the Vegas system, I’m sure we could all learn a lot (for some reason your response above reminded me of the tone of Mr. College Football Tony Barnhart).

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          • Macallanlover

            Actually, that is true when it is a game where money can fall on either side and you can make it balance (pretty much). An odds bet like this doesn’t have an automatic counter balance to it so they simply drop the odds when too much gets on one team, or put a limit on the bet size to put a cap on their exposure. In this case, there is only one winner so all of the money on other team bets to win the MNC act as their safety net. Sweet deal for Vegas, much better than the usual line bets on games, but the 20-1 on UGA indeed means there is some surprising interest in the Dawgs, hopefully from the UGA coaching staff who are the only ones who truly know what is under the hood. 🙂

            I still think it is folks who see that we should get within striking distance because we should easily win the East and be only one game from being in the Final 4. As we saw last year, anyone can win it given that small field. Odds on UGA are likely to rise from 20-1 as more serious money comes in on this futures bet when the season gets closer. Keep your powder dry, UGA odds could easily double before late August, imo.

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            • fastcarsslowwomen

              True, Georgia should win the East. But then what? I have Georgia similar to LSU (strong defense, not much else), and fpi has Bama beating LSU by 75% probability so a Bama vs Georgia matchup right now would probably be 75% Bama, 25% Georgia. LSU, like Georgia has an easy schedule with only 4 real games- UF, Tn, Auburn, and Bama.

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