Matt Melton goes to the AP Poll well once more, looking at the last decade’s underrated and overrated teams based on the final AP Poll rankings. His metric:
To do that I looked at the final AP Poll ranking of every Power 5 team since 2005. I then ran a regression analysis based on their record and final poll position. This regression spit out a formula. I used this formula to reverse-engineer the poll ranking of all the ranked Power 5 teams and determined which teams were the most over or underrated. If you want the results, skip on down, but I wanted to give some background and caveats before delving into them.
I only looked at teams that were in either the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-10/12, or SEC during the season in question. The Big East, with future Power 5 members Louisville, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, and West Virginia, was a BCS conference during this time frame, but I left those teams out when they were Big East members because I thought it would skew the results. Similarly, when Utah and TCU were Mountain West members, their final rankings were not included in this analysis. Other current mid-majors like Boise State, BYU, and Central Michigan were also left out. The regression analysis produced an R squared value of .7868 between winning percentage and final ranking with a regression formula of: -74.675*(win %) +71.347.
The 2007 Georgia squad makes the overrated list. There is no Georgia entry on his underrated list (surprise!), but it’s the last group he comes up with that’s of interest.
And finally here is a list of teams that probably should have finished ranked based on their record, but ultimately did not.
There’s only one team in the last eleven seasons that managed a double-digit season in wins — playing an SEC schedule, mind you! — and didn’t finish ranked. The AP managed to Dawgrade an entire season. Impressive.