Georgia vs. Appalachian State: it’s not you, it’s us.

Jason Butt does an excellent job exploring the story behind the point spread for the opener.  The reality is that ASU hasn’t done all that well against P5 programs since its historic win over Michigan ten years ago.

The Mountaineers, however, haven’t had much success against Power 5 programs since that win over Michigan. Since the 34-32 victory over Michigan, here is how Appalachian State has fared against Power 5 teams:

  • 2008: Loss vs. No. 7 LSU 41-13
  • 2010: Loss vs. Florida 48-10
  • 2011: Loss vs. No. 13 Virginia Tech 66-13
  • 2013: Loss vs. Georgia 45-6
  • 2014: Loss vs. Michigan 52-14
  • 2015: Loss vs. No. 12 Clemson 41-10
  • 2016: Loss vs. No. 9 Tennessee 20-13 in overtime
  • 2016: Loss vs. No. 25 Miami 45-10

Judging by recent point spreads, Appalachian State’s plus-14.5 line against Georgia isn’t out of the ordinary. In 2015, Clemson entered the game as a 17-point favorite. Tennessee was a 20.5-point favorite in last year’s close overtime win over the Mountaineers.

Miami was only a 3.5-point favorite before blowing out Appalachian State just a couple of weeks later. Obviously, the performance against Tennessee had a lot to do with this line.

When Georgia and Appalachian State played in 2013, the Bulldogs were only 11-point favorites. It seems evident that the oddsmakers in Las Vegas have respected Appalachian State a lot more since the Michigan win. But in totality, the Mountaineers have lost its last eight games against Power 5 opponents by an average of 34 points.

Hmm… maybe that’s why it’s called an upset.  However, even with that track record in mind, it’s not necessarily a stretch to be concerned about Saturday’s game, because the other side of the coin is that Georgia hasn’t consistently crushed lesser opposition lately.

When it comes to Georgia, however, it isn’t like the Bulldogs have been dominant against Group of 5 or FCS opponents in recent meetings. Here is how Georgia’s last five games against these opponents have gone:

  • 2015: Win vs. Louisiana-Monroe 51-14
  • 2015: Win vs. Southern 48-6
  • 2015: Win vs. Georgia Southern 24-17 in overtime
  • 2016: Win vs. Nicholls 26-24
  • 2016: Win vs. Louisiana-Lafayette 35-21

It’s worth noting that Georgia held only a 20-6 lead over Southern at the half. It’s also worth noting Georgia held a 35-7 lead against Louisiana-Lafayette before putting in the backups.

But in the three games it played against Georgia Southern, Nicholls and Lousiana-Lafayette, Georgia’s average margin of victory was only eight points.

Perhaps that explains Phil Steele’s attitude.

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14 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

14 responses to “Georgia vs. Appalachian State: it’s not you, it’s us.

  1. Who the hell really knows how this game is going down but their 5th year Sr QB out of Calhoun could be a real problem for us- along with an experienced RB.

    For our offense – if our strategy is to “impose our will” in the run game and we don’t and Eason can’t deliver on-target throws and/or our receivers drop balls we are in for a long night. That’s probably true for any team in any game, but we saw way too much of that last year.

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    • Macallanlover

      So, if everything goes wrong it could be an uncomfortable win? I agree with that. It won’t all be negative, we will win, and should cover.

      While you focus on the offensive questions, you ignore that this defense should overwhelm a much smaller, slower offense. Barring some cheap scores, the 1st team defense will keep them from scoring 14.

      Everyone is going “all Munson” on this game, save your concern for those who can genuinely stand toe to toe with us and force us to beat them. Appy is the “little train who can’t” in this game, better chance if they had caught us at noon in the middle of our schedule.

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      • No One Knows You're a Dawg

        Agree. I think the dumb money (Joey-from-Illinois who’s in Vegas for Labor Day Weekend) is going to take App State and the points based on memories of 10 years ago and Georgia’s recent underachievement, while the smart money (the professionals) will take Georgia based on the talent the teams have this year.

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      • Good points there.

        I just have a nightmare stuck in my head from last year of us continually running on both 1st and 2nd downs for not much. Then, Eason’s in 3rd and 7ish situations and we can’t complete a pass.

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        • Macallanlover

          I am with you on the lack of skill at chess OC Chaney demonstrated last season. It is one of the non-player questions I have that could stifle this team’s success (the other being Tucker turning the Dawgs loose on the QBs this year.)

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  2. Chopdawg

    Their QB, Lamb, is a scrappy player & might have a chip on his shoulder, playing against his homestate team. But, I can’t see Appy State having near the depth we do, so my prediction is a close game thru three quarters with us putting up 2-3 scores in the fourth quarter to win by about 3 TD’s.

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  3. Lamb might be scrappy, but he was very inaccurate vs. Tennessee last year (15-23 for 108 yards with 33 on 1 completion). They didn’t even generate 300 yards of offense against the Vowels’ defense. If we don’t make mistakes, we should run them out of the building. Of course, I said that before Nicholls last year, too.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Uglydawg

    They beat Michigan, and I’m beating this dead horse :).

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    • Macallanlover

      Get off the ledge, that horse has been dead so long they are considering tearing down the statues to that bit of history in Boone. Dawgs will be energized by the night atmosphere Saturday.

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  5. ASU Is coming to town with the coaches, players, & Fans
    Believing they have a better team than the Dawgs & they expect to win.

    College football is a game based on emotions.
    I give that edge to ASU. Still, The Dawgs should win.
    Go Dawgs.

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  6. sniffer

    A Mark Richt squad pummeled AppSt last year. Think of it, a coach who face plants against lesser talent imposed his will on this team. I think we throw our helmets on the field and its over.

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  7. PTC DAWG

    Just win the damn game.

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  8. RCBRick

    Vegas line opened at -37.5 and is down to -14.5. I don’t think I’ve ever seen oddsmakers miss that badly before.

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    • Macallanlover

      That would be truly have been historic. I think you got some real bad information there, the line was never over 15 from I saw. Summer lines can be whacky some times, and subject to more volatility, but UGA was never a favorite by that number against Appy.

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