Watching the statistics

Back in the day, there was a recurring feature at the blog called Dawg Stat Watch. It was an attempt on my part to track certain performance levels of the team during the Richt era that appeared to be consistent measures of the years when Georgia won the East.  I wound up having to abandon the DSW, because conference expansion and the rise of spread offenses throughout the conference made many of the old standards obsolete.

I’m not here to resurrect it now, but I do want to share what I think is a useful set of spreadsheets.

Click on those lists and you’ll be impressed with the way Georgia is excelling across the board.  Even more impressively is that the Dawgs are doing it without being particularly dominant in field position differential (Alabama’s net number verges on the obscene).  Much of that can be chalked up to that ‘Bama is +12 in turnover margin, while Georgia is +1.  I don’t want to get too far ahead of myself here, but if it turns out those are the two teams that face off in Atlanta, if you’re looking for an area where Georgia has to avoid disaster in order to have a chance, that’s a big one.

In the meantime, we’re just through week six. Sift through what’s there and enjoy.

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18 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

18 responses to “Watching the statistics

  1. 92 grad

    Is the difference between us and auburn that we beat Notre Dame and they lost to Clemson? I haven’t followed auburn at all so far but off the top of my head it seems that they have had an easy schedule so far. Statistically I would think that Tennessee and miss state would be better wins than auburn beating ole miss and who else?

    Basically, I’m trying to determine if auburn is actually good or not.

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    • Russ

      Auburn is damned good, and basically has played a slightly tougher schedule, given Clemson > ND. I think Auburn is our equal right now.

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      • dawgtired

        Yes, these two teams are too close to call. Also, I think both are capable of causing Bama problems. Bama showed the ability to let-down a little against TexA&M. Good defenses can really change the momentum of a game so these games can go either way. The thing that is impressing me about Bama right now is their offense. They are efficient on both sides of the ball. I was really hoping their QB would struggle more.

        Senator, it must be much more playing the stats game with the Dawgs doing so well. You seem to have a lighter step in your words these days.

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        • Russ

          I heard the Senator had an attitude problem, that he didn’t hang out with the rest of the bloggers. He’s not used to the blogging competition here in the southeast, but that’s what happens when you learn to blog at some eastern private school.

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        • Cojones

          You brought up an interesting subject; their QB. I see him as a controlled Manziel. He has top RB numbers as well as good QBR. He carries them over the top week after week and should be in the forefront of the Heisman race, but anyone ESPN downplays or attempts to ignore usually finally wins out after ESPN’s crowned guy has gone down (Mayfield?).

          They have been pushing so hard to make the BIG 10 and their conference head look like competition to the SEC that their downgrading utterances are beginning to bite them and Delany in the ass. That will change beginning this week and everyone will begin to look at that ‘Bama athlete in the proper light, one of a player with Chubb’s determination and prowess plus great QB athleticism. He is the only individual player that can decide the Dawg’s Playoff fate.

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          • dawgtired

            “He carries them over the top week after week…”

            Correct. I was hoping he would be the weak-link in their O but when I’ve watched he as performed to ‘Bama-type’ expectations. He is not only athletic but a manager as well…it’s sickening.

            ESPN would never give credit where credit is due if it didn’t carry the potential to ruin their credibility. They eventually have to state what’s obvious to the rest of us to prevent looking like idiot homers.

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  2. gastr1

    I’ve also been trying to avoid looking ahead, but I’ve been doing it anyway, and the turnover thing is what scares me about having Fromm at QB against Alabama. Yes, he has been great. I still fear what might happen against a defense of top quality, not so much in being able to move the ball a bit, but the potential for turnovers leading to easy points for the other team.

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    • Mayor

      If we get to play Bama it will be after 12 games and Fromm won’t really be a freshman any more. He’s not a turnover machine now anyway. By then hopefully he’ll be a “field general.”

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      • The Truth

        Well, let’s not go overboard here. He’d have a few more interceptions except the DBs got a case of “Mecole-itis”. I do know that happens to all QBs, but less to those who are locking in.

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        • Macallanlover

          True for all QBs, and that’s the truth. There is a reason those guys are DBs and not receivers. Sometimes INTs occur because the receiver ran the wrong route, because of a tipped ball off a receiver’s hands, a better play by the DB, and certainly a bad decision/throw by the QB. I worry more about the latter, and I don’t think there is any evidence of that concern with either Fromm or Eason. Both are young, both guilty of doing what you say, but I saw Peytin do that in his last season after his HS graduation 20 years before. Seems like “both sides” of this discussion get overboard at times, let’s celebrate their successes and realize either can make a mistake.

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  3. reality check here

    Like the Senator says we are only half way. Have to really like what we are seeing so far. We will learn something about the Dawgs this weekend. Obviously Missouri is not good this year but they have a great passing game and we haven’t faced that. I expect us to win, but I am interested to see how well we do.

    I am a huge Fromm fan. He sees the field better than Eason did and he runs some. However, Eason may assert himself yet if we find ourselves in a game where we need to pass. That could really be the case against Florida and Auburn especially. We will learn a lot about Auburn this weekend but so far Stidham has looked really good except for Clemson. Like Georgia they seem to be improving. Florida has a good run defense.

    The heart of our schedule lies ahead. Before the season the biggest question mark for me in the first half of the season was Notre Dame. The second half looks tougher, but like all Georgia fans I am hopeful.

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    • Russ

      I really like being 6-0, and love the way we’ve gotten there. But the shit is about to get real the second half of the season.

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      • It was real in South Bend.

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        • Russ

          I do agree with that. And we handled it well. I’ve been almost as impressed with the way we’ve handled everything since then. I just think our schedule is back-loaded and we’re going to get pushed at the end of the year. Luckily, we should also be rounding into peak performance then.

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  4. Dave

    I want to see what Auburn does this week.

    A lot of folks keep pointing to the Clemson loss for them, and now dismissing it. I was more taken aback by their performance the next week against Mercer.

    I understand that was 4 weeks ago now, and they’ve looked pretty good of late. It will be interesting to see if LSU can build off of last weeks win vs. the SwampDonkey under the leadership of that talking gorilla.

    If they easily handle LSU on the road, then I’m prepared to say they’ll be a threat to Bama for sure.

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    • ChiliDawg

      “If they easily handle LSU in the road, then I’m prepared to say they’ll be a threat to Bama for sure.”

      So, is Troy a legitimate threat to Alabama as well? Using your criteria we’d have to call them national championship contenders.

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      • Dave

        Easily handle, I said. Also, don’t do the transitive property thing, unless you’re prepared to say Iowa State can beat Ohio State.

        LSU has a lot of talent. Coming off a big win on the road, still playing with a chip on their shoulder…If Auburn completely shuts them down from the word ‘go,’ then yes, I would consider them to be the real deal, because to me, this game screams nail-biter, like so many previous LSU-Auburn games.

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  5. 69Dawg

    It will be interesting to se if Kirby can change the fans “culture” as well as he has changed the teams. Kirby just wants the team to play up to their potential. If they do that then he is (not really) happy. If this team plays up to it’s potential and loses then he knows that they simply were not as good as the opposition. Hopefully we will be as good as the opposition and not shot ourselves in the foot. As they say the only team that can beat Bama is Bama.

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