Fromm, getting some advanced stat love

The folks at And The Valley Shook! have their own little advanced stat measuring quarterback performance that’s tagged with a mouthful of an anagram, ATVSQBPI.  You can find the long explanation here, but the tl;dr version is this:

A short explanation is this: it is modified yards per attempt, including rushing. Every time the QB calls his own number, this is how many yards, on average, he is worth.

After jiggering the numbers for all the SEC starters, this is what tumbled out first.

Jake Fromm, Georgia. Jake Fromm State Farm is tearing it up. Most concerning for SEC defenses is that he’s actually much better against Power 5 defenses than his overall season average. He’s not piling up big numbers against bad teams, he’s saving his best performances for teams that matter. He’s scored 12 touchdowns to 2 interceptions (7/1 against the Power 5), racking up the bonuses. The defense, similarly, is performing at an elite level. They have the best pass defense in the conference, and are mere fractions behind Alabama’s overall average. Georgia looks legit.  [Emphasis added.]

Doesn’t that give you the warm and fuzzies.  Although, should we ask if Missouri qualifies as a bad team?  After all, Sagarin has the Tigers at 104.  By comparison, Appalachian State is 73rd.

For yuks, here’s what they have to say about Mizzou’s Drew Lock, who checks in at number ten:

Drew Lock, Missouri. Lock had an outstanding game last week, so there’s signs he can turn this around. But he’s still the guy with a 6/5 TD/INT ratio against Power 5 defenses. He’s throwing for a lot of yards, but his lowest number of attempts in one game has been 28. You simply can’t be that effective completing just 52.6% of your passes. And no one’s impressed that you threw for 521 yards and 7 TD against Southwest Missouri St. The defense is terrible and don’t be fooled by the run defense. It stinks, too. They’ve been victimized for 16 rushing touchdowns.

Probably ought to be mindful of that first sentence.

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11 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, SEC Football, Stats Geek!

11 responses to “Fromm, getting some advanced stat love

  1. JasonC

    Rat poison

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  2. 92 grad

    I watched some of the MO-KY game and Lock certainly can make the kind of throws that simply cannot be defended. Those outside shoulder or seam route lasers where if the ball is placed just right there’s nothing a defender can do. It’s either a completion or a pass interference penalty.

    The cool part is, our front 7is fast, so the best defense against MO will be to get the qb before he has a chance to sling it. I think there will be a few PI fouls that go against us and I think there are going to be a lot of offensive holding fouls that will help us (obviously enforcing the holding penalties is inconsistent).

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  3. Biggus Rickus

    Kentucky was beaten deep continually last week, giving him four deep throws to account for 2/3 of his yards. Lock’s strength has always been getting the ball downfield. He has a big arm and throws an accurate deep ball. When that isn’t there, he’s a head case who can’t read a defense and throws the ball erratically. He may hit a deep pass or two on Georgia, as I do think it’s the one area where the defense is vulnerable that hasn’t really been tested yet, but he won’t be able to do it enough to keep Missouri in the game.

    As to Fromm, the sample size is too small to get a real read, but he has mostly done well since the Notre Dame game. I just hope he can maintain even close to the same efficiency when the pass defenses are a little better and the running game isn’t working quite so well.

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    • Russ

      I think the last two games in particular, Fromm has run the exact offense Kirby wants. I know some hate the label, but I think Kirby wants a game manager, and that’s exactly what Fromm has done. Plus, when you can rush for 300-400 yards/game, it makes the QB job much simpler. To top it off, Fromm can hit the big play on occasion keeping opposing defenses honest.

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      • Greg

        True….also, they now know he may keep it on the read option (or otherwise) and take off. His arm has helped the run game, they can’t stack the line like last year….gotta respect both run & pass.

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  4. ugafidelis

    The last three sentences bode well for teams who like to run the ball.

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  5. Dawg151

    What concerns me is pointed out in the comments section:

    “It will be very interesting when UGA finally comes across a team that can muzzle their running game. Though they may not see one until the SEC CG. When Fromm has to win the game himself, it will be a new experience for him and it may not be so pretty.”

    At this point, who knows if our running game can be effectively muzzled? What we do know is that to get where we want to go, we’ll have to face several defenses that will at least, on paper, be capable of doing such. If that happens, whoever our QB may be at the time will be asked to turn the volume up on the passing game. We haven’t had to do that yet so far this season, so it’s a bit of unchartered territory…and unchartered territory makes me slightly nervous.

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  6. CB

    “He’s not piling up big numbers against bad teams, he’s saving his best performances for teams that matter.”

    As a guy who was never impressed with a qb who would light it up against Kentucky but throw picks against Florida. That…. is refreshing to read.

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