Get after that ATS.

This is kind of weird.  For all the conventional wisdom of the value of an off-week, Patrick Garbin discovered that, at least with regard to covering the point spread, there hasn’t been much value for Georgia in that at all.

Screenshot-2017-10-18 UGASports com - The Bulldogs_ Off-Bye Blues(1)
I assumed when I saw the headline to his article that it was all due to Florida, but it’s not.  It’s about Georgia.  Go figure.

Moreover, this has been trending even more negatively of late.

Therefore, beginning with the Tennessee game in 2008 and ending with Smart’s lone result following an open date (14-point loss to Florida last season as a 7½-point underdog), Georgia is a staggering 1-11 ATS in its last dozen games off a bye. Three of the 11 losses, the Bulldogs were favored by at least 6½ points and lost straight up. The one game they covered, barely covered, when as 2½-point favorites over Florida in 2011, Georgia won by four points. Notably, the 11 losses did not cover by an average of a lofty 11 points.

With nine of those twelve games in Jacksonville, you’d have to say that is about Florida.  Or, perhaps more accurately, Georgia’s mindset against the Gators.  At some point, that’s gotta change.

17 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football

17 responses to “Get after that ATS.

  1. Jack Burton

    Remember your post before the opener about the Dawgs struggling to cover double digits?

    We are 3-1 this year (5-1 overall ATS) and easily could’ve covered 30 against Mizzou (if we had punched one in late). I’m loving it.

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  2. paul

    Now would be good point for that to change.

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  3. Hal Welch

    Time to exercise some demons…

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  4. Macallanlover

    “Predicted perception” is the driving force, along with actual match up strengths and weaknesses, in how these lines are set. Fan optimism is a major factor, as is media coverage/slant, but money placed moves it after it is set. In the end, it is all about balancing the number as much as they can.

    Don’t think those percentages are that different for most programs, successful or not. I remember seeing a snapshot (believe it was about 5 years) of team’s success several years ago and Boise led the nation in ATS success at 61%. Some teams get on a run and go 10-2 in a single year then the bettors get behind that team/coach and bet more on them which moves the line enough to make their success go down. 55% is the break even point for bettors so betting just one team, every year, is an almost guaranteed losing proposition. Got to pick ’em on the right weeks.

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  5. Rp

    Two issues Patrick:
    1. Most of those games involve Florida coming off a bye as well, so that would negate any advantage for UGA.
    2. Odds-makers take the bye week into account when they set the line, so if they are good at their job the ATS records should be similar to non-bye-weeks.

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    • Mayor

      FU used to have a bye week before the WLOCP and Georgia didn’t. That changed around 2007 or so. Since Georgia got a bye week before the game the series has evened up.

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  6. Otto

    I don’t think it is mindset so much of prior staffs could run up and down the field over lesser competition were held under their averages against good competition.

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  7. If we come over the Hart Bridge with the mentality of destroying anything in those hideous colors and that butt-ugly helmet, we will thrash them. If we come out like we did in 2014 with a mentality of “we’re good, they suck,” get ready for the Georgiaing meme to get cranked up.

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  8. PTC DAWG

    Bye week, y’all know who’s on it.

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  9. Timphd

    For those of us longer in the tooth, we remember the days when kicking Gator ass was nearly an annual event. We ruined their year so often under Dooley that you never had the angst common today. Whether it was Applebee to Washinton, Fourth and Dumb, or the Herschel years, we went into the game confident. That’s what we have to get back to. I desperately want to believe we are there again. Show me Dawgs!

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  10. Hobnail_Boot

    Yet you still contend it’s a neutral site.

    Go on.

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    • That’s what you got out of this post? Please tell me you’re being sarcastic.

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      • Macallanlover

        More importantly, he completely whiffs on the meaning of “neutral” as well as not seeing the relevance to your post. There really isn’t a debate about the legitimacy of it being neutral, never hear it brought up anywhere but on this site. Although Florida fans felt playing in Jaxsonville favored Georgia in their first discussions with Spurrier in 1990. He laughed at them too.

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  11. Mayor

    Ancient history.

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  12. Dylan Dreyer's Booty

    Kirby’s got this. He saw that before it was published and that’s why this is not a bye week, it’s a WORK week. At
    least I hope so.

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