This is kind of weird. For all the conventional wisdom of the value of an off-week, Patrick Garbin discovered that, at least with regard to covering the point spread, there hasn’t been much value for Georgia in that at all.
I assumed when I saw the headline to his article that it was all due to Florida, but it’s not. It’s about Georgia. Go figure.
Moreover, this has been trending even more negatively of late.
Therefore, beginning with the Tennessee game in 2008 and ending with Smart’s lone result following an open date (14-point loss to Florida last season as a 7½-point underdog), Georgia is a staggering 1-11 ATS in its last dozen games off a bye. Three of the 11 losses, the Bulldogs were favored by at least 6½ points and lost straight up. The one game they covered, barely covered, when as 2½-point favorites over Florida in 2011, Georgia won by four points. Notably, the 11 losses did not cover by an average of a lofty 11 points.
With nine of those twelve games in Jacksonville, you’d have to say that is about Florida. Or, perhaps more accurately, Georgia’s mindset against the Gators. At some point, that’s gotta change.