My standing caveat about game predictions is the effect of turnovers. Usually that’s just a routine genuflection on my part, but it might be worth keeping an eye on Saturday.
South Carolina is +8 in turnover margin. That’s second-best in the conference. (In conference games only, the ‘Cocks are first in that category.) Further, Jake Bentley hasn’t thrown an interception in his past four games, a streak up to 136 pass attempts.
The Dawgs have been a little fortunate this season in that they’ve comfortably survived the two games in which they generated negative turnover margins. Bill Connelly’s analysis shows them minus-1.09 points per game in turnover luck, which seems a little surprising for an 8-0 team. (Alabama’s, for instance, is +2.31 ppg. South Carolina’s, by the way, is almost as good at +1.99 ppg.)
In short, this week, take my caveat seriously.