Hold the line

To give you an idea of how unbalanced the top of the conference is from the rest of the SEC, Vegas is having a problem setting lines in games involving Alabama and Georgia.  No, really.

How are the odds makers handling Georgia and Alabama in that they are blowing out a lot of people?

We are seeing some really historic lines in the SEC. Alabama is being favored by 30 points or more over several teams in the SEC. There just haven’t been many of those in history and now Georgia is kind of creeping up there. It’s difficult for (odds makers). How do they gauge how big a gap has been created between these top SEC teams, Alabama and Georgia, and then the rest of the league, which really has kind of fallen off? This is the biggest point spread on a Georgia-South Carolina game going back to at least 1997 and it’s not even really close. The next-closest one was 18.5 in 2005. This is not just a Georgia-South Carolina thing, this is an SEC thing where these top teams have really separated themselves.

How do the smart gamblers figure out when Alabama and Georgia become overvalued?

You are looking at your power rankings, and your power rankings are based specifically on the talent that these kids have. Some people focus on coaching. Some people will add on little things about recruiting in terms of depth. You are strictly looking at your power rankings now and your power rankings are saying Georgia is 24 points better. Now Georgia has beaten teams by plus-30 so it’s a tough spot for them. The talent and the metrics are saying 24 but you look at these scores with Georgia and you’re seeing 30-point victories. It is a tough thing, and you will often see the sharp guys with these big inflated lines, I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s some late money on South Carolina as these guys sit there and wait and wait and wait and see how much this line gets driven up and then take the other side. They are just looking at their metrics.

If they’ve been doing that lately with Georgia, their metrics are screwing them out of some major bucks.

10 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Nick Saban Rules, SEC Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

10 responses to “Hold the line

  1. If be lying if I said this big spread makes me nervous. Part of me is waiting for us to have that Georgia moment and the other part sees how this staff and team have handled this season.

    Liked by 1 person

    • PTC DAWG

      It has zero bearing on our play. I may have a bearing on your perception of how we play..ie whether we “cover” or not.

      Frankly, I’ve never paid much attention to lines myself.

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      • Cojones

        You haven’t been playing in the Fun Office Pool?

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        • PTC DAWG

          Yeah, I participate…I know the lines, but don’t worry much about us covering or not. Certainly not enough to wager real money. Nothing worse than winning the game and losing a bet.

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    • Saxondawg

      A great example of this phenomenon is the CBS Sportsline Expert Picks. Nearly all the writers take South Carolina and the points, even though the line is very reasonable based on our games against similar opponents. Is SC really that much better than Florida? You just don’t want to touch a line like this, even though if UGA wins 45-7 nobody will be surprised.

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  2. *doesn’t make me nervous

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  3. Mayor

    The best thing in the linked article is the discussion of odds for UGA to win the national championship. At 12-1 Georgia is a very attractive bet.

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    • Mayor

      P.S. What I really wish is that I had placed a bet back when the Dawgs were 30-1. Look for the odds to go down as the Dawgs win more and if the Dawgs beat Bama in the SECCG look for the odds to flip and Georgia to be better than even money to win, say 2-3, before the 4 team playoff begins.

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      • We_Will_Get_Fooled_Again

        Degenerate gamlber here. As long as Bama is in the playoff, they will be the betting favorite to win the title. Even if we beat them in the SEC championship game, they’d be favored over us in a rematch, although probably by a little less than they’d be favored over us right now. For what it’s worth, Danny Sheridan says we’d be a 10-point dog against the Tide on a neutral field.

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        • Danny Sheridan didn’t think we would win 8 games this year if I remember correctly.

          I’ve heard others say the spread would be Bama -6.5.

          Sure, Bama will be favored and should be, but I’ll take my chances in a winner-take-all game in Atlanta in December. I won’t put my hard-earned money on it.

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