Another South Carolina thought

Assuming Georgia doesn’t let the turnover margin battle get away from it, I have a hard time seeing how South Carolina pulls off the win tomorrow.

As I posted yesterday, though, I have to be convinced about whether the home team can cover a rather sizeable 24.5-point spread.  Smart’s impose your will approach combined with Muschamp’s get the opponent to play down to your level approach (I don’t mean that disrespectfully; instead, it’s a reference to how well his team has done so far without having a talent advantage over most of its opposition this season) makes me think points will be somewhat hard to come by on the day.

That being said, if the Dawgs do break through and cover — keep in mind they’ve won every game since Notre Dame by 25 or more points — it’ll be because of one advantage they have over the Gamecocks, explosive plays.

Georgia is third in the nation in runs of 20 or more yards with 28. That trails only Arizona and Notre Dame, according to cfbstats.com.

The Bulldogs had just 15 runs of 20 or more yards In 2016, tied for 86th.

“It’s great,” Chubb said this week. “Those guys are doing a great job up front of just opening it up for us. After that, you’ve just got to make the guys miss.”

Chubb has 11 runs of 20 or more yards in only eight games after having seven all of last season…

Smart earlier this season spoke of explosive runs, saying Georgia tries “to get as many 12-yard runs as we can.”

Georgia produced seven of those against the Gators Saturday including touchdown runs of 74 and 45 yards from Michel and 39 from Holyfield that the sophomore earned.

Head to head, consider that:

Part of the secret to generating explosive runs is taking advantage of the numbers game when teams load the box, leaving the second level relatively short of defenders when a running back breaks through the line of scrimmage.  Can the South Carolina defense keep Georgia’s backs in check?

10 Comments

Filed under 'Cock Envy, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

10 responses to “Another South Carolina thought

  1. dawgtired

    This late in the season, after both teams have played a variety of teams, I would think the stats more closely represent their character. For SC to win or even come close, both teams would need to play unlike themselves. GA would have to bring a B-game and SC would have to bring an A-game to make this close…and I don’t think this GA team knows what a ‘B’ is…I feel pretty good about this one. I don’t think rain would make much of a difference either.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. sniffer

    No.

    RBU has been proficient at getting opposing defenses to go soft on contact late in the game. The receivers seem to be wearing down the corners with aggressive blocking, too.

    My hope is that Muschamp vents his carotid artery tomorrow. Figuratively, of course.

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  3. 92 grad

    Your conclusion note is the crux of the whole thing. SC would need to control the line of scrimmage well enough to keep linebackers and a couple safeties deep in the secondary to stop our runners once they pop through the line of scrimmage. Sony made those long runs because FL had everyone up close, sort of like when a hockey goalie leaves the net in order to become an additional offensive player.

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  4. addr

    Perhaps in previous years I wouldn’t be so confident in this game, but whenever I’ve channeled my inner Munson this team has responded by making it look easy.

    Barring a catastrophic meltdown, I think the Dawgs cover easily. SCar has done well, but they don’t have near the talent or depth to challenge for more than a quarter or two. I could see this game being similar to Missouri in that it might be close for two quarters because of their defense, but after that they start to wear down and one of the RBs (take your pick) breaks a big play, which breaks the game wide open. I’m thinking a 41-10 type game, with the only touchdown coming early off a big defense or special teams play.

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    • Macallanlover

      I don’t see an easy cover, but wouldn’t rule it out. Line seems about right, + or – a TD. KS isn’t going to keep his foot on the gas, imo. Taking players out in the 4th, if he gets the chance, before the Auburn game seems prudent.

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  5. Scorpio Jones, III

    Somebody should ask Fran Tarkenton to explain the 1959 Georgia-South Carolina game. I’m sure it would be somebody else’s fault. 😀

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  6. Mayor

    Remember the Loyola Marymount basketball teams of the 80s that played everybody on the team and ran the fast break constantly? They scored over 100 points in every game and the entire team was happy. When everybody plays everybody is engaged and buys in.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. AusDawg85

    With our D at home and clear goal of shutting out opponents, I don’t see the chickens putting too many points on the board. Dawgs hit 40+ points and the spread is covered easily.

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  8. Irwin R. Fletcher

    Runs of 20+ yards…a well, worn and time-tested measurement around these parts.

    https://blutarsky.wordpress.com/2011/02/23/georgia-and-big-plays/#comment-87184

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  9. whb209

    If the point spread was 100 points, I could not make myself click that South Carolina button. As long as the Dawgs are on the Fabris Invitational pick’um poll I will take my Dawgs.

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