Would they really keep a one-loss SEC champ out of the CFP?

I’m not saying the selection committee would do that to Georgia… but if they were inclined to do so, here’s a handy excuse:

As the committee of football philosophers meets Monday and Tuesday in Texas, studying the statistical and the unknowable, it might grapple with a fresh dynamic in its four-year existence. The way things have shaken, and shaken, across this fall in the kooky chambers of college football, it looks like these wise men could wind up awarding, or considering awarding, a playoff spot to somebody who spent a Saturday somewhere getting absolutely mauled.

This has not happened before.

In the first three years of the College Football Playoff selection committee, nine teams with a loss on the CV got playoff berths. Of those nine, only two lost by more than one possession: Washington, when it fell, 26-13, to Southern California in November 2016, and Ohio State, when it lost, 35-21, to Virginia Tech in 2014. “They kicked our ass,” Texas Coach Tom Herman, then the offensive coordinator at Ohio State, recalled this past summer, but they just did not kick it in the way other posteriors have gotten kicked lately.

How should a committee member, with the galling absence of an open bar in the meeting room, weigh such matters as No. 1 Georgia taking a 40-17 obliteration by Auburn on Saturday?

I can hear Herbstreit already.

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70 Comments

Filed under BCS/Playoffs, Georgia Football

70 responses to “Would they really keep a one-loss SEC champ out of the CFP?

  1. MGW

    Which helps more, a winning a rematch against the team who destroyed us, or beating undefeated #1 Bama in the SEC Championship?

    Like

  2. UGA is a 100% lock to make the playoff if it wins out. So is Bama. Auburn is more of the interesting case study.

    Like

  3. First, I think this is a dumb conversation. Second, if you’re going to engage in this dumb conversation you have to play it out and fill the 4 teams without a one loss sec champ:

    1) Wisconsin
    2) Clemson or Miami
    3) Oklahoma
    4).

    Someone tell me who slides in there that isn’t a one loss sec champ? UCF? It’s a stupid discussion.

    Like

    • Sanford222view

      Derek is looking at this correctly. The real question is who else could they choose over a 12-1 UGA team?

      1) Clemson or Miami
      2) Wisconsin or Ohio State?
      3) Oklahoma
      4) ???

      If Ohio State wins the Big 10 they may not get in with two losses where one of those losses was as bad or worse than the beat down UGA took from Auburn. Plus they got whipped at home by Oklahoma. I don’t seem them getting in over a 12-1 UGA SEC Champ.

      The two teams/scenarios to fear if UGA wins out are 1) Bama loses a close game to Auburn and is sitting a 11-1. They could pull a Penn State/Ohio State like last year I guess and put Bama in the playoff. I don’t think they would if they both only have one loss and UGA has defeated Auburn in the rematch. Penn State had one more loss than Ohio State last year which makes that situation different so I don’t think they would use that logic again for teams that both have only one loss.

      2) Miami loses a close game to Clemson in the ACC Title game to get its first loss. If that happened you could see Wisconsin (13-0), Clemson (12-1), Oklahoma (12-1), and Miami (12-1). This is the scarier scenario as it could be argued Miami has a better loss (Clemson close) and the Hurricanes have a blowout win over common opponent ND. Georgia needs Miami to win that game or get blown out by Clemson.

      Liked by 2 people

    • 81Dog

      when you’re right, you’re right.

      Like

    • Bulldog Joe

      Alabama.

      Like

  4. JasonC

    Clemson still plays Miami. Wisconsin still plays Ohio St. Bama still plays Auburn.
    All we can do is beat Kentucky and Tech… and whichever team from the West we play. I’m 66% sure we can accomplish that.

    Like

  5. sniffer

    You can’t wedge 6-7 deserving teams into 4 spots. Every year the playoffs remain at 4, there will be explainations why so and so isn’t getting in. They have to use some criteria, fair or foul, fair to the participants, foul to the left out. It’s subjective. As to UGA getting in, we have to win ‘em all and get some help.

    Like

  6. Bigshot

    If it can be done, it can be done to UGA.

    Like

  7. Bright Idea

    Even at 12-1 and an SEC Championship Georgia will need a lot of losing by others to get in the playoffs. A non-pedigree Southern team with a bad late loss won’t get smiled upon by the talking heads who influence the committee.

    Like

  8. heyberto

    Maybe I’m just used to the treatment we’ve gotten, but I kind of don’t care about sqeaking I to the playoffs. I’m not convinced we can hang with the top 4 after Saturday. I’d love to be wrong. We beat Alabama or Auburn in the SECCG, and I’ll retract that, but I just don’t see how we have the ability to improve enough to do that. Prove it to me Dawgs… until then I’ll be right with you every step of the way, like always.

    Like

    • Ben

      I’m with you. After Saturday, I’m not interest d in a rematch with Auburn, and I’m not as optimistic about our chances in the SECCG. After the way Johnson gashed us, and with our team’s potentially fragile ego, we gotta get by Kentucky and Tech before we even start thinking about winning a conference or national championship.

      And even if we do get it together, that one loss to Auburn will always be a burr in an otherwise great year.

      Like

      • heyberto

        Well said! I don’t mean to sound down on this team. I think we should be celebrating what we’ve accomplished. It’s already been a far more successful year than many of us hoped for. It’s ok to not be ready yet… it takes time.

        As for the team’s mindset… I’m just not that worried about that. This year has been an incredible step forward in the culture change department with team psyche being a huge part of that. One thing Kirby has done exceptionally well is get these guys ready. Shocking to see that against Auburn, but that gave Kirby a learning opportunity. That he can use for years to come. I think he’s earned the benefit of the doubt that he’ll get that corrected. If we see this behavior again, then it’ll be time to get concerned.

        Like

    • 92 grad

      Yep. It would be awesome if the team won out, especially for the seniors/draft eligible, so I’m all for it. Realistically though they aren’t ready for the type of game required to win championships. I know they’re better than they showed against the barn but I think it’s obvious that they play within themselves with not much room for “stepping it up”.

      Like

  9. paul

    We’ve been discussing this for a while now. If the committee can put Ohio State in ahead of Penn State, like it did last year, it can keep a one loss SEC champ out in favor of another team it feels is more deserving. Like a one loss not SEC champ (Bama). In our particular case, they could easily use the beat down by a two loss Auburn team as the justification for leaving us out. Ohio State got in last year because the committee felt they were one of the four best teams. The idea that the SEC champ gets in no matter what is a fantasy.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Penn State had 2 losses last year. Ohio State had one in a game they dominated in every manner except the final score. It’s just not the same comparison.

      Say it with me: A 12-1 SEC title-winning team will be in the CFB playoff. People are talking about an 11-2 AUB team being in. UGA is fine if it runs the table, though I highly doubt UGA is running any tables.

      Liked by 1 person

      • paul

        I hope you’re right about a 12-1 SEC champ getting in no matter what. I just don’t feel it though. Every year some “deserving” team gets left out. With the SEC in a down cycle and all the badmouthing the conference as a whole has been getting this year it feels like maybe this is the year the SEC gets left out unless Alabama goes undefeated.

        Like

  10. Beer Money

    I think that we will play Tech at 8:00 on ABC next weekend for no other reason than to make sure Herbstreit has a 3 and a half hour window to lay the groundwork of why UGA is not deserving of anything, regardless of what happens the next 3 weekends. We could be winning the game 51-7 again and Herbstreit will continue to eviscerate us for losing to Auburn and “playing nobody.” Never mind the fact that his Buckeyes did the exact same thing…twice.

    The other interesting thing is that Alabama has played “nobody” as well, but you don’t hear much about that. If they were to beat Auburn, then their 2 toughest games will be in back-to-back weekends.

    Like

    • paul

      Teams like Alabama, Ohio State and Notre Dame have a pedigree that we at Georgia do not. Hence they get a pass when they play no one. As long as they don’t lose they’re in. Win a few national championships and we’ll get the same benefit of the doubt. Until then, we get treated like the red headed step child. It’s not fair but it’s life and we have to deal with it. Life hasn’t ever been fair and it ain’t likely to ever be fair.

      Liked by 1 person

      • dawgfan

        Don’t forget Clemson, Florida, Florida State, and Miami. They all have multiple national titles since our last one.

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      • Uglydawg

        Check out Ohio States record against the SEC. That pedigree is based on fiction and bullshit.

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        • paul

          I didn’t say they earned it. We all know it’s been quite some time since Notre Dame was consistently good. It’s just the way things are. Nebraska was in that club for a while. They only had to win one or two games a year against decent teams to be crowned national champions. Ohio State routinely gets exposed outside the Big 10 but it doesn’t stop people from assuming they’re still one of the best teams in the country. What you and I know has little to do with how the committee, sports writers or coaches rank teams.

          Like

    • ViewsfromtheSouth

      Nice, you made me wish for a noon game on ABC.

      Like

  11. More upsets are coming. And, even if the don’t, no way 1 loss SEC team gets left out this year.

    Like

    • In a weak ass Saturday slate here are a few to watch out for:

      Miami is a 19.5 point favorite over Virginia in a noon kickoff after an emotional win last weekend. Miami has forced four turnovers per game in each of its last four games, and turnover luck cannot be counted on forever. This is a prime candidate for a letdown.

      Wisconsin gets Michigan at home in an 11am local kick. Michigan’s offense has played well the last three weeks over the bottom-feeders of the Big Ten (Rutgers, Minnesota, Maryland), and their defense has been good this season.

      TCU at Texas Tech (11 am) and Iowa State at Baylor are games that have upset potential. ISU losing to 1-9 Baylor would not be a good resume bullet point for the Big XII.

      Georgia, fresh off a beating, gets one of the best Kentucky teams ever for senior day. If they get caught up in their feelings and are still licking their wounds, they’ll lose, and the playoff won’t matter anyway.

      Like

  12. Saltwater Dawg

    Auburn beats Alabama by 2 at home.

    We somehow beat Auburn by less than 10 in the SEC Championship.

    12-1 Alabama, with the better game on the plains, goes over 13-1 SEC Champ UGA.

    Perhaps?

    Like

    • Dawg in Lutz

      Alabama would be out because they would have 1 quality win all year. the resume won’t be there. UGA would be i as the SEC Champion.

      Like

    • paul

      I disagree with Dawg in Lutz. In the scenario you describe I think it’s not only entirely possible but probable the committee holds Alabama in higher regard simply because of their reputation and recent history. By January all their injured players are likely to be 100%. Plus, they’re Alabama. More people will watch. Especially if their inclusion is controversial.

      Like

  13. I don’t care at this point. My concern is how this team picks itself up and prepares for Kentucky. In one game they Georgia Way’d the hell out of everything they built this season. We peaked way too soon and I think we’re gonna finish this season struggling more like last year.

    Like

    • 92 grad

      Certainly looks that way. Kirby has his work cut out for him to keep the draft eligible kids engaged. This is when that little doubt creeps in. I know Chubb and Michel are thoroughly high character kids but they will be hearing from a lot of nfl people. The reality of “the league” sets in hard and fast.

      Like

    • Uglydawg

      My concern too, jaboO52. And GT will be tough.
      We will learn a lot about Kirby’s ability to keep his team up and focused for the next two games.
      Regardless of what happens in ATL, I would love to see this team bounce back and drub KY and Geeks. That would be a good harbinger for ’18.

      Liked by 1 person

  14. Scorpio Jones, III

    Kentucky.

    Like

  15. dawgfan

    It looks Clemson is McGarity’s favorite team from here on out. The Hurricanes are looking good. Can we please just beat Kentucky?

    Like

  16. Russ

    All the more reason why we need to play Auburn again. Put a good beating on them and all is forgiven. Simple, right?

    Like

  17. PTC DAWG

    Things I don’t worry about for a $100.

    Like

  18. William

    Did any of you watch the offensive play-calling this past Saturday? If so, do you really believe that we can win a championship? I love the dawgs too, but I’m also a realist!

    Like

  19. Jared S.

    I’m focused on Kentucky.

    Like

  20. Win the next two. Then play to win in Atlanta. If those things happen and we get left out, so be it.

    Like

  21. sUGArdaddy

    Lord, I’m flabbergasted at this discussion. As Scorp said, beat UK.

    12-1 and we’re in, guys. In fact, I’d say UGA, Bama, Clemson, Miami, OU and Wisky are the only 6 teams that completely control their destiny. There is no discussion. I don’t believe Wisky will win out. In a world in which there is very likely only 3 conference champions with 1 or zero losses, this is not a discussion.

    With a Wisconsin loss, I do believe the committee will be faced with a decision to put a 1-loss non-champion in (Miami and/or Bama) or a 2-loss champion (Ohio St.) as the 4th team.

    Bottom line is if there are enough 1-loss conference champions, that’s who they’re picking. That isn’t always the case, as last year. You wanna know the best one? Auburn beats Bama, we beat Auburn and us and Bama both make the playoff. That would get in the goads of the War Chickens. They beat their 2 biggest rivals in the regular season and both of them still get in the playoffs. This thing could very easily end up UGA, Clemson/Miami winner, OU, and 11-1 (or 12-1) Bama.

    The more fun scenario would be seeing a 1-loss non-champion Miami get in over a 1-loss non-champion Bama. If Bama loses to Auburn, do they have a win as impressive as Miami’s over ND?

    Stop worrying, guys. There is no bias. The committee just ranked us #1 for 2 straight weeks because our win vs. ND was better than anything Bama had. Now our win vs. Miss. St. is better than theirs. They’ll get their chance vs. Auburn. We have the best of both worlds. We either have a chance to avenge our only loss or beat #1.

    Beat UK. It all works out if you keep winning.

    Like

  22. Joseph Campbell

    Glad to see the boisterous commentary but does anyone really believe this team is good enough to win out? I don’t. If by some miracle they do, however, I think the rest will take care of itself. There is more chaos to come, especially when you least expect it. Remember 2007, when #1 LSU and #2 West Virginia lost to mediocre/bad teams in the last weekend of the season. Anything can happen and no one looks unbeatable this year.

    Like

  23. lakedawg

    Doing what ifs, Auburn beats Bama andDawgs again, do they get in with 2 losses SEC champs?

    Like

  24. BM and the UGA AD will say thank you to the committee if a 12-1 Georgia gets left out.

    Like

  25. Uglydawg

    It occurs to me that the dumb ass hats…correction..stupid ass holes, at the WWL were insisting all year that ND was one of the greatest CF teams of all time. We should rub their arrogant noses in it every opportunity we get. Sad thing is it will happen almost every single year. It’s as predictable as Michigan being highly rated before the first kickoff. Honestly, I was kind of looking forward to seeing an SEC champion kick the clover out of the Irish in the playoffs.

    Like

  26. Can we just be honest with ourselves here?

    Our team has performed better than we expected and it is very exciting. But the truth is we still haven’t gotten enough horses in the barn via recruiting yet, and Kirby still has a few lessons to learn as a HC.

    Comparing CKS 2nd year to Saban’s 2nd year at Alabama is silly, b/c Saban had already won a NC as a head coach at LSU and he’d been a head coach in the NFL.

    We most likely will NOT win the SEC title this year.

    Alabama will probably beat Auburn and then beat us in Atlanta.

    We will finish 11-2, go to a nice bowl game, and hopefully put on a dominating show that helps recruiting.

    By year 4 of CKS, if we don’t have an SEC title (and/or a national one) then its time to start wondering if we have the right man for the job.

    Stressing out over this year is silly when:

    1) We totally control our own destiny anyway. Win out and make the playoff. Lose another game and we are definitely, deservedly out.

    2) We most likely won’t win out.

    Like

  27. ViewsfromtheSouth

    If Alabama loses on the Saturday after Thanksgiving, I think they’re out. Florida State being bad this year is going to hurt them in this regard.
    With other teams, it’s going to be interesting though in this hypothetical. They might decide to screw the SEC and take no one if Georgia actually wins. If the ACCCG is a close Miami loss, I could see Clemson and Miami being taken and Georgia screwed.

    Like

  28. Finish 11-1 first, then SEC championship. Win for what ever team in that game equals playoff. ACC winner,Big 10 winner and ?.

    Like

  29. Macallanlover

    What a crock. Win the damned SEC and quit whining. I will be thrilled with that result. If you don’t like the subjective BS, support the conference champs getting in. Only thing you can control. No better deserves anything because of an alleged pedigree.

    Like

  30. AusDawg85

    The interesting question is if a two loss Auburn SEC champ gets left out. Oh God how I would wish this if we lose to them again.

    Like

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