I finally worked up the nerve…

… to look at what the advanced stats gurus had to show for the Georgia-Auburn debacle.  Kinda wished I hadn’t, though.

As a reminder, Georgia’s showed out well in Bill Connelly’s S&P+ evaluations, with six of their first nine games registering 90% or better in percentile performance.

Auburn graded out at 15%. Yecch.

For perspective, that’s lower than any Georgia game grade from last year, except Ole Miss.  Yep, even Nicholls wound up better.  In case you’re looking for more perspective, Ohio State’s drubbing at the hands of Iowa scored a 19% mark.  Notre Dame’s beat down at the hands of Miami merited a 12%, so there’s that, at least.

Pretty epic, in other words.

Brian Fremeau notes that the blame can be evenly spread.

Georgia’s 40-17 defeat on the road against Auburn was the Bulldogs’ first game this season in which its defense had negative splits (-6.9 points in expected scoring), having led the nation in defensive efficiency coming into the game. For good measure, Georgia’s offense had its worst performance as well (-10.8 points) and the Bulldogs’ special teams missed a field goal and fumbled a punt, coughing up a negative game splits total (-7.1 points) in the third phase of the game.

Hey, at least they lost as a team.

With that, I think I’m done dumpster diving into that game’s results.

39 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

39 responses to “I finally worked up the nerve…

  1. Well, the good thing is that we’re going to find out over the next 3 weeks whether that was an awful fluke, or if we all bought into a dud.

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    • Uglydawg

      this ^ We will know by Saturday night, unless we see a very close win and still don’t know. Right now, I’ll take two close wins to wrap up the season and then settle on hope in Atlanta.

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      • I’m not sure we’ll know anything this weekend. If they come out on blast and lay into Kentucky I’m not sure we’ll know anything. UK isn’t very good. It has to be among (or the leader) of the fraudiest teams with a good record in CFB.

        I will say I’ll be very concerned if we derp around and leave them in the game, but if we roll I’ll still have the feeling we’re capable of pounding bad teams while the better ones will cause massive headaches.

        I think GT is a much stiffer test on both sides of the ball. They play great 3rd down defense and that damn offense is what it is.

        Liked by 1 person

  2. Tronan

    I think (hope) it was just a bad week. (I thought we’d gotten bad weeks out our system this season, but oh, well.) Anyway, I’m looking on the bright side of life and expecting a significant rebound against UK. I mean, it’d be hard to play worse or even as badly, right?

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  3. Charles

    And if we had coaching splits, they would be negative too. I think we can do better. I hope I’m right.

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  4. paul

    Even that was more than I wanted to know.

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  5. Jack Burton

    Obviously it was a bad week. The perfect shit storm.

    It can’t be a mirage if you plow through teams for 9 weeks like we did.

    Miami’s 41-8 destruction of ND is more flukey in my opinion.

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  6. Hogbody Cracker Barrel Spradlin

    Cliche time: When you’re down it’s never as bad as it seems, and when you’re up it’s never as good as it seems.

    More cliche time: the next time you go up against the tough guy he’s usually not as tough as you thought.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Uglydawg

      All it takes if for Georgia to play on their finest level (as AU did) and AU to have a perfect shit-storm (as UGA did) to flip the burger.
      I’d look for something in the middle and a close one in a re-match.

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  7. I appreciated that the adjusted scoring margin at S&P+ was 22.3 which tells me the actual score wasn’t closer than the game. Look at the adjusted South Carolina scoring margin for an example of the opposite where we only won the actual game by 14, but should have won by 30 based on our performance.

    Liked by 1 person

    • D.N. Nation

      In the USC game, we had a red zone fumble and another drive that went on forever but only ended up with 3 points. So yeah, it makes sense.

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  8. Athens Dog

    Awburn was the dumpster fire…….I don’t think it had the same feel as the annual CMR “no show” game. But agree that we’ll find out over the next three weeks. And KY needs to be a solid, easy win

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    • MLB2

      Don’t know why you people keep banging on CMR. I don’t think we could score on his defense.

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      • Athens Dog

        Because every year after 2005 we had at least one no show game. I’m not banging. It’s fact.

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        • Derek Dooley 2.0?

          CMR’s worst “no show” games were better than ’16 Ole Miss (worst loss to Ole Miss in school history), ’16 Nicholls (closest W over a D1aa in 40+ years), ’17 Auburn (worst loss to Auburn since Ray Goff). Your argument has no merit.

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        • MLB2

          Gee, that only happened because of CMR? All those blowouts to UT and UF every year for over a decade before he was our coach was his fault? He accomplished that against us while winning championships at FSU? That bastard! Where did some of you silly fuckers get the rose tinted UGA glasses that alter your perception of what we’ve been as a football school? Some of you act as if we’ve been on a loop of 1980-82 and CMR came and ruined our dominance. I think he’s showing what he can do when he has the proper support of his bosses. You’d be wise to switch your bitterness about the Richt years to the cheap ass “powers that be” who hindered him. I’m sure you won’t but that’s the truth. We’d all be better served to stop talking about somebody who’s been gone for 2 years and focus on the present and the future. Couple more recruiting classes and we’ll be able to out talent people. Kirby has got BM’s number. It will show in time.

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  9. Tim B

    The eye test tells me that the team peaked at Miss state game. No one could run on the defense before that game. Since, the defense has looked progressively weaker against the run. On the other side, fromm has looked better each week but against both uf and carolina the backs were dodging defenders in the backfield almost every snap making enough plays in spite of to move the ball. I think the team is in a fatigue spiral. As the ranking increased the players and coaches both pushed harder in pracitice leadng to more fatigue. A guy makes a mistake (possibly because of fatigue) the answer is to work him harder. Show up on Saturday with dead legs and you get what we saw last week.

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  10. Cojones

    I kinda’ wish you hadn’t looked also.

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