GTP, bringing you the stats before the nerds do.

One of the more endearing features of the Georgia Tech message boards is the way they’ll attempt to construct statistical arguments in years when the teams aren’t on level footing going in to make them look closer than they are.

I thought I’d save everybody a little time with that.

Some of the comparative stats are eye-opening.  Start with Tech’s ranking in defensive red-zone conversion percentage.  It’s dead last in the country.  If there’s a saving grace to that, it’s that the Jackets are 35th nationally in opponent red-zone opportunities.  Unfortunately for them, Georgia is ranked sixth in opponent red-zone opportunities and first in red-zone conversion percentage.

The odds are pretty strong that if Georgia gets inside Tech’s 20, good things are bound to happen.

We’ve all been a little disappointed that Georgia’s defense hasn’t been more disruptive this season, despite its general excellence.  Georgia ranks 65th nationally in tackles for loss.  That being said, Tech’s defense makes the Georgia defensive line look like the Steel Curtain.  The Jackets are a woeful 119th in tackles for loss.  Sony’s and Nick’s days just got a lot brighter.

It’s a similar story with sacks, as Georgia comes in 63rd in the country and Georgia Tech 97th.  Jake Fromm’s day just got a lot brighter.

If all that suggests the Dawgs should fare better with the grind, I think that’s right.  It also seems to be the case that Georgia is the more explosive team.  Georgia is 16th in plays of 20 yards or more;  Tech is 90th.  That’s also reflected in Bill Connelly’s advanced stats:  Georgia’s IsoPPP is 11th on offense;  Tech’s IsoPPP is 80th.

To be fair, one thing to note in favor of the Jackets is that their undefeated home record is no mirage.  Bill’s performance percentile in those games:  85%, 94%, 92%, 81% and 87%.  Georgia’s road success at Bobby Dodd Stadium is likely to be tested.

Hopefully, though, those numbers don’t lie.

12 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Georgia Tech Football, Stats Geek!

12 responses to “GTP, bringing you the stats before the nerds do.

  1. JG Shellnutt

    Statistics: painting a fair and accurate picture since 1794.

    Like

  2. Hogbody Spradlin

    I’ve given a couple of glances to Stingtalk and From the Rumble Seat. They haven’t gotten anything going yet this year. It’s sad.

    No it isn’t. Screw em.

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  3. Dawgs just need to play inspired football and not let up like we did last year and ‘08. Do that, and it’s a beat down.

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  4. Got Cowdog

    So far this year we have seen a complete dismantling a couple of our biggest rivals, to the point that their coaches were fired shortly thereafter. I know that wasn’t the only reason Booch and The Sharkman got canned, but it sure didn’t hurt the cause. To me, this season has been a resounding success, and the extra dash of Kahlua in my White Russian this season would be a similar performance against the North Avenue Comicons. I doubt seriously CPJ will get fired over it, but hey a guy can hope right?

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    • Russ

      I hope the Genius is there forever.

      Oh, and the great thing about our offense is we can run up the score without looking like we’re running up the score. Of course, with tech, I’m perfectly fine with them knowing we’re running up the score.

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  5. Uglydawg

    What has really, really impressed me about our running backs is the way they take care of the football. Running that much, with desperate defensive players pulling and punching at the ball..knowing that it is almost certainly a running play..and these guys have held on tight.
    A lot of backs will lose the ball while trying to forge that extra effort into a few more yards. This is one of the reasons Georgia’s redzone stats are so good.

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  6. Am I the only one that read the headline initially and wondered what Bill C. did to the Senator?

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  7. Dawgy45

    Last week I was treated to an explanation of how tech is actually better than UGA using logic instead of stats. It went like this: UGA lost by 23 to Auburn, UGA barely beat ND, Miami easily beat ND, Miami needed a last second field goal to beat tech by 1, therefore tech is clearly better than UGA.

    Nope, not kidding.

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  8. I have a feeling that Fromm and company are going to unload on tech with both barrels. Turnovers and brain farts aside, we should beat them by 24+.

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