Why they pay Corch the big bucks

There may not be a universal consensus, but I think most observers would share the opinion that college football’s top two head coaches are Nick Saban and Urban Meyer.   Where as Saban’s particular genius may lie in knowing how to structure a program to take advantage of the resource advantage he has over almost every other D-1 school in the sport, Meyer’s shown an aptitude for gaming the system with regard to the CFP.

Ohio State is currently 9-2, with lopsided losses to Oklahoma at home and 6-5 Iowa.  In comparison with the rest of the playoff field, it doesn’t own a lot of quality wins, either.

And yet, the Buckeyes are right in the middle of the CFP chatter and show strongly in several advanced stats rankings.  Meyer’s team is second in ESPN’s FPI and first in Bill Connelly’s S&P+ RkSagarin has them sixth, ahead of Oklahoma.

Again, that’s with two bad losses on the résumé.  What’s Urban Meyer’s secret sauce?  Basically, it’s beating the crap out of every team from which it scores a win.  In those nine games, the average score is 50.414.7.  Advanced stats eat that stuff up, for the most part, and that in turn feeds into the national narrative peddled by… well, you know.

Maybe that’s why I find myself a fan of Brian Fremeau’s FEI ratings this year.

All I know is that if Ohio State beats Wisconsin to win the Big Ten championship, it’s going to make for a final week debate that will range from somewhere between interesting and obnoxious, depending upon your point of view, especially if Miami and Alabama lose a game.

47 Comments

Filed under BCS/Playoffs, Urban Meyer Points and Stares

47 responses to “Why they pay Corch the big bucks

  1. Very hard to see a scenario where they get in.

    First they need Bama to win out. If Bama loses one, they get a spot over OSU..

    Then they have to have OK not win the big 12.

    Then they have to win an argument that they are more deserving that Notre Dame.

    Tough path.

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    • I don’t know that’s true about Bama losing to the Barn and getting in. If Bama doesn’t beat the Barn they’re going to have a very shaky resume. I think Bama needs to beat AUB, first. They could lose to UGA and make it in, but I’m not sure they could lose to AUB and do so. It would make for an interesting Sunday, though.

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    • Derek, you’re making this too complicated.

      All OSU has to do is get enough votes from the selection committee.

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      • Mayor

        The selection committee is made up of human beings who are susceptible to outside influence, too. If Herbstreit et al are constantly shilling for tOSU and the Big 10 then that alone can sway some committee votes. That’s why I favor doing away with the committee entirely and using computers like the BCS did–flawed as it was. At least the computer wasn’t influenced by the name of the team or the identity of the HC.

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        • DoubleDawg1318

          Except, some of the computers REALLY like tOSU.

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          • Macallanlover

            Or any other team that a built-in advantage pre-programmed in at the beginning of the year. It is one of the most disappointing things about “objective” computer ratings, they have a human with a bias doing the garbage in part. If they would wipe that out about 6 games in, then the interactions might be extensive enough to come up with an objective ranking as the year moves along. Many of the computers seemed to have a West Coast bias, guess where Silicon Valley is located. There was always some weird variations by machines calculating the exact same game results. No thanks, give me the 5 Power 5 champs and the next highest rated teams not in that five (one of which has to be the highest rated Group of 5 team), and I am all in. Eight is Great!!

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    • garageflowers

      On the drive in this morning, I was listening to ESPN. They were saying how they couldn’t see a 12-1 Bama get in over a 11-2 OSU because OSU actually won their conference. What makes my head want to explode is this is EXACTLY what happened last year when OSU got in over Penn St. OSU didn’t even win their division.

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      • greg63

        Winning your devision/conference always matters….well, until it doesn’t. See UGA 2007, OSU last year, Oklahoma (I believe?), Bama/LSU that one year, etc. The narrative changes according to who the teams are.

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      • Cojones

        Heather Dinich is pushing the BiG 10 narrative and has been for a couple of weeks, much to the chagrin of one or two sportscasters on the show with her.

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        • siskey

          I think meyer is a spectacular coach. The Ga-Fla game in 2005 made a believer of me. But IF the scenario you laid out before plays out then I think that OSU will become or has become Oklahoma from the early 2000s and the mid to late Tressel era OSU teams which are overrated pretemders who get beat bad against more deserving teams.

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          • Dawg in Lutz

            I would love to see Michigan beat OSU this weekend. Then a 3-loss OSU can beat Wiscy so no Big team gets in. that conference doesn’t deserve a seat in the playoff

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  2. Hogbody Spradlin

    Did you have to mention that guy’s name? Things are already bad enough with a photo of the Johnson on the page. 😉

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  3. I’ve already mentally prepared myself for Ohio State to get in at 11-2 with two blowout losses. They’ll run it up on Wisconsin if they can and recency bias will take over.

    Liked by 1 person

    • D.N. Nation

      I still argue that Bucky Badger intentionally quit in the ’14 B10CG once it became clear An Ohio State was going to win. For all the guff the Big 10 gives the SEC about mindless conference solidarity, they’re the kings.

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    • The other Doug

      exactly. Everyone thinks Wisconsin’s schedule is crap and they don’t get the benefit of the doubt like Bama, but Meyer will Meyer.

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    • Will (The Other One)

      That, and Herbie caping for them since roughly halftime of their win vs Michigan State…

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  4. 3rdandGrantham

    You know damn well that Herbie is already crafting his argument accordingly for OSU getting in. Seriously, Herbie makes Luginbill seem unbiased and totally objective compared to him. OSU is going to beat Wisconsin, so indeed its going to get interesting, with all sorts of machinations taking place with Delany behind the scenes.

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  5. If Corch gets in, we’ll officially know the fix is in with the WWL and the committee.

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  6. Sanford222view

    That Ohio State is still even being discussed with the two losses they have is ridiculous. Meyer and the media are working hard to make it happen. It makes me laugh people complain about SEC favoritism when you see what is done for the Buckeyes.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. Bulldog Joe

    Ohio State is Disney’s insurance policy in case Wisconsin and Notre Dame lose.

    They will not eliminate the northern half of the country from its entertainment sports network’s biggest event.

    At least one of the teams gets in.

    Liked by 2 people

  8. Greg

    Can see Alabama getting left out if they lose to Auburn. Can also see Ohio State making it in if they win the Big 10. As much as it pains me to say, thinks Ohio State would deserve it more than Alabama, they would get in IYAM….same amount of wins, conference champ etc. It is national (playoffs), Bama would have been the third best team in the SEC at that point. The committee is looking for interests nationally and not regional imo. Hold on to your seats, it could happen.

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    • If Auburn beats Alabama and Georgia (again), how do you figure the Tide are third-best?

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      • Greg

        Cause they are sitting at home, the two division champs are playing …didn’t say that Auburn would beat UGA, but since you bring it up…thinks the dawgs beat’em.

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        • garageflowers

          OSU did this last year

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          • Greg

            The committee is looking for interests nationally and not regional imo”

            I said Ohio State would/should get in. Again, I believe the committee wants more of a national look and not regional. Only one would come out of the SEC in that scenario imo (above post). The SEC champ has already proven they are the best in that conference…no need to match up again. The interest would be more national at that point….all about not only the best teams, it is also about interests/viewership.

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            • Mayor

              Holy shit! And I thought it was supposed to be about getting the “best 4 teams” into the playoff. Silly me.

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              • Greg

                they are talking out of both sides of their mouth. They are taking the best out of the regions for the most part. There would be a lack of interest nationally if there were 2 or even 3 SEC teams. The only way you can tell who the best 4 are, is to invite most all….similar to division 2. Too subjective, but it is better than what we had imo.

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      • Otto

        I can see it, Auburn beats Bama by Saban getting a second added on to the clock and then Auburn score an improbable TD. Voters look at a 2 loss tOSU vs a 1 loss Bama who lost at the last possible second. Auburn would never wins in such a way and Bama never gets in championship games without a Conference championship………..

        Auburn goes on to face UGA, Clemson, and Bama twice in a single season.

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  9. D.N. Nation

    Let ’em in, let them get blown out again, and then….oh who am I kidding, no one will learn a thing.

    Liked by 1 person

  10. Otto

    I’d rather face OSU than Bama or Auburn.

    Liked by 1 person

  11. Bob

    This love for OSU is nothing new. Consistently the most overrated team in America. Much more so than everyone’s favorite punching bag, Notre Dame. Here is to holding my nose and hoping for a Big Blue upset in Ann Arbor. I think 3 losses might be enough to keep the Scarlet and Grey out…even if barely.

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  12. Jared S.

    Ha. Too much oxygen wasted on this topic. It’ll all come out in the wash.

    Only arguments/hurt feelings will surround those teams with good records who either 1) didn’t win their conference, 2) didn’t even appear in their conference’s championship game, or 3) won their conference but had two losses.

    Boo hoo. If you can’t win your conference, or if you’ve lost two games you’ve got no right to complain.

    Just win, baby.

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  13. Jack Klompus

    Don’t hate the Playa…

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  14. PTC DAWG

    I see 4 conference champs getting in….

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  15. 69Dawg

    Naïve of anybody that thinks the WWL doesn’t call the shots over this committee. They have the gold and as it was always said “Them that has the Gold makes the rules”.

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  16. Mayor

    I heard Brady Quinn on TV say that if tOSU beats Michigan this weekend Urban and the Bucks are in the playoff. And the Buckeyes are favored–probably will win ’cause Michigan ain’t sh!t. Made me vomit in my mouth. I only hope it isn’t true.

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  17. Bring on 8 or 12 teams. Then OSU can get their butts handed to them on a regular basis.

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