Running the damned ball, Rose Bowl edition

I’ve long maintained that one of the best things about the Internet is more times than not you can count on somebody else doing the heavy lifting for you.  I had an idea about a post digging into how much Oklahoma’s offense was able to take the pressure off its defense with explosive starts, when, lo and behold, I find that Saturday Down South’s Connor O’Gara up and took care of that hard work for me.

Look at how quickly Oklahoma jumped out to 3-possession leads after that Iowa State loss:

  • Oct. 14 vs. Texas — 20-0, 4:32 in 2Q
  • Oct. 28 vs. Texas Tech — 49-27, 1:41 in 3Q
  • Nov. 12 vs. TCU — 24-7, 11:45 in 2Q
  • Nov. 19 vs. Kansas — 21-3, 0:10 in 2Q
  • Nov. 25 vs. West Virginia — 21-3, 13:08 in 2Q
  • Dec. 2 vs. TCU — 17-0, 2:29 in 1Q

So in six of their final eight game of the season, they benefited from jumping out to those leads. Let me rephrase that. Oklahoma’s run defense* benefited.

The two games in that stretch that Oklahoma didn’t balloon it out to a 3-possession lead were Kansas State (41st rushing offense) and Oklahoma State (47th rushing offense). In those matchups — when it actually had to defend against 2-dimensional offenses — Oklahoma allowed over 6 yards per carry and 200 rushing yards in each contest.

You know Jim Chaney is going to stick with the run, even in the face of another defense loading the box and daring Fromm to throw.  It’s been his MO all season, even when the going is slow early on, with one exception.  Do Georgia’s special teams and defense keep his usual game plan on track?

I’m starting to think the key stat to track Saturday Monday is pass attempts.  Against D-1 competition, Mayfield averages a little over 28 attempts per game; Fromm averages a little over 18 apg.  If both hit their averages, which team is more likely to win?

25 Comments

Filed under Big 12 Football, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics

25 responses to “Running the damned ball, Rose Bowl edition

  1. Billy Mumphrey

    Saturday?

    Like

  2. Russ

    So, against Texas, they were outscored 24-9 over the last 34 minutes against a freshman QB and a decent defense. Didn’t look at the others. But that gives me hope.

    Like

  3. Jared S.

    To your question, I say flip a coin. I don’t think that stat will tell us much. I think Mayfield could throw 30 times and Fromm could throw 20 times and the score could easily be 35-28 either way.

    Like

    • If Fromm throws 20 times or less, you don’t think that means Georgia’s running game is clicking?

      Like

      • Jared S.

        I think it could mean that…. if everything goes according to script. But that’s a big if.

        I hesitate to say “sure” because of Mizzou who scared us a bit with their 28 points. Fromm threw 26 times in that game…but we laid down 370 rushing yards on 51 attempts.

        I guess what I’m thinking is what percentage of our total plays is Fromm going to be throwing the ball? If he throws 26 times, but we run 51, like against Mizzou, then him throwing 8 more attempts than his average won’t matter. I can see him hitting his average attempts of 18 (or have even 20 or more) and our running game still be “clicking”.

        I need to work on being concise. lol

        Like

  4. J-DawG

    I think Fromm throws just enough and just deep enough to keep their defense honest and not stacking the box. I don’t see them stopping Chubb or Michel as much as they want this game. The only question is if our secondary can handle their receivers. I feel that we win the special teams battle. The only other question is their O-line against our Defense.

    Like

  5. Class A

    So my question is simple….if we win the toss, do we defer or take the kick?

    Like

    • Dawgtired

      We take the ball. Keep Mayfield off the field every chance we get.

      Like

      • I don’t think Kirby has chosen put the offense on the field first yet (didn’t do the research to back that). I don’t imagine he changes anything if we win the coin toss.

        Like

        • pantslesspatdye

          We had the ball first against Auburn, Round 1. I’m pretty sure we won the toss – can’t prove it. I say we defer.

          Like

          • That would have flown in the face of tendency. He has stated he wants to defer because he wants the opportunity for 2 for 1 … end of the half and 1st possession of 3rd quarter

            Like

        • Uglydawg

          Take the ball. Score first.
          If you’re the OK coaching staff you’re worrying about.
          Nick
          Sony
          Swift
          and the freshness, speed and strength of the “other” running backs.
          Micole on returns.
          Wimms on deep balls
          Fromm on the occasional keeper.
          The whole Georgia defense.

          OK has a good team. BM can take over a game..but probably not on this defense. They have a line and a real good back or two..

          But they don’t have the arsenal I listed above for Georgia.

          Georgia has seen some good, good QBs this year. Notre Dame, Mizzo and Vandy all have very good QB’s. Auburn too.

          If turnovers and penalties are neutral or in our favor, I like the Dawg’s in this one.

          Like

          • Uglydawg

            Oh..and I forgot. Just like OK, we’ve got some pretty good tight ends to throw to too…just haven’t used them as much.

            Like

    • Derek

      Defer. Always defer. Only one team gets a shot at scoring two times in a row without a turnover. You want that to be you.

      You get the ball with 5 to play in the second quarter and the score 13-10 is and the next time the other guy has the ball, the score is 27-10 and it’s HUGE!

      Like

      • Mayor

        ^This. Scoring a TD at the end of the first half, then taking the kickoff in the second half and scoring usually puts a game out of reach. That is exactly what Boise did to the Dawgs in the Kick-off game in 2011 and turned a close game into a rout. Always defer if you get the chance.

        Like

  6. Derek

    We want Fromm at his average or less and baker to be in the upper 50’s.

    Like

  7. Uglydawg

    I predict that Swift, in the next two games (counting those chickens before they hatch) will establish himself as a candidate for next years Heisman He will do this by putting teams away when the defense is weary in the late third qtr from the pounding they’ve taken from the seniors. He will earn the label of “The Finisher”

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Cosmic Dawg

    If I am reading it correctly:
    Passing Offense Passing Defense (sorted by rating)
    Georgia #7 Oklahoma #86
    Oklahoma #1 Georgia #7

    Rushing Offense Rushing Defense (by YPA)
    Georgia #10 Oklahoma #46
    Oklahoma #13 Georgia #20

    Acknowledging there’s a team of 100 great football minds studying this in BM at this very moment, if I’m Georgia I probably do the sneaky thing and let Fromm sling it around PLENTY in the first couple quarters and he definitely gets 25+ throws in this game.

    Michel, Chubb, and Swift can all catch a football, too.

    Like

    • Jared S.

      That first drive against Auburn in November where we scored was awesome. Fromm was throwing and it looked like Auburn was thinking, “Wait, what?”

      Then, of course, things “got sideways,” as everyone likes to say. Here’s to hoping we come in with Auburn Game 2.0 mindset.

      Like