The Georgia run game goes from Oklahoma to Alabama.

Bill Connelly writes about the transition.

Chaney used these simple ideas to great effect all season. The Oklahoma game was the best example since the Missouri game, in which the Dawgs repeatedly sent blue-chip athletes through holes formed by wrong-footed Mizzou defenders.

But Oklahoma and Missouri had defenses that were, at best, mediocre. Alabama remains the gold standard.

Georgia has played three games against teams in the Rushing S&P+ top 15 — two against fifth-ranked Auburn and one against 13th-ranked Notre Dame — and found the going a bit rougher.

  • Against Notre Dame, Michel and Chubb combined for 136 yards in 26 carries (5.2 per carry). Ten of their 26 carries (38 percent) gained at least 5 yards — six of 13 for Michel, four of 13 for Chubb.
  • In the first game against Auburn, Michel and Chubb combined for 48 yards in 20 carries (2.4). Only six of 20 carries (30 percent) gained at least 5 yards. The national average is around 39 percent.
  • In the second game against Auburn, things improved: Chubb and Michel gained 122 yards in 20 carries (6.1), and nine of 20 (45 percent) gained at least 5 yards.

The addition of D’Andre Swift to the equation made a big difference in the second Auburn game. He carried seven times and caught three passes, and his 64-yard explosion early in the fourth quarter sealed the game.

Swift, the latest blue-chipper in the arsenal, carried 18 times for 191 yards over the final three games of the regular season and has averaged 7.8 yards per carry in his freshman campaign. He has added one more dimension to the attack. Or should I say, one more direction.

Chubb is the north-south guy; Michel kills you with diagonals. Swift is used in a lot of east-west ways. Add to that a solid if unspectacular short passing game — Fromm was 20-of-29 against OU but averaged just 10.5 yards per completion — and you’ve got too many different things going on for most defenses to account for.

‘Bama is obviously going to be a completely different animal from what Georgia’s offense has faced all season.  The question I find myself asking at this point isn’t whether Bill is right about what Swift has brought to the offense.  It’s what the change made to the offensive line by inserting Cleveland as a starter after the Auburn loss has meant.  Bill notes that the line is 35th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line) and 44th in power success rate (success in short-yardage situations), but it would be informative to see breakdowns of those stats through the first Auburn game and then after.

How many points do you see Georgia needing to score to win Monday night?

51 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

51 responses to “The Georgia run game goes from Oklahoma to Alabama.

  1. Rocketdawg

    24-28. I think we can hold the Alabama offense in check for the most part.

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  2. AusDawg85

    Under 17 we lose. Over 30 we win. Anything in between is what I expect to be another nail biter.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Castleberry

    21 – but the big IF for me is whether or not Bama’s D gets a score. Add any special teams or defensive points they score to my total.

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    • simpl_matter

      I’m expecting/dreading ~2 picks. We are going to have to throw to open the run game. I think they’ll blitz Fromm from the jump and play tight man looking for him to dump it off errantly to the outside. Hopefully we see some TE hot routes and slants over the middle, exploit their second string ILBs.

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  4. 3rdandGrantham

    On Tuesday, I was quite pessimistic about this game, but today I feel much better for several reasons. First, the line has moved an entire point down from 4 1/2 to 3 1/2, even though the majority of the actual bets are being placed on Bama. This is significant, as the sharps obviously like UGA’s chances.

    Next, Bama lost two key starters towards the end of their game against Clemson – starting RT Lester Cotton, and LB Anfernee Jennings, who is their #1 sack/QB pressure guy, who dominated the Tigers. Also, word is Bama’s top DB, Minkah Fitzpatrick, also is quite banged up but should play. Meanwhile, we are mostly 100%, though nobody is sure how healthy Woerner is.

    Finally, I think UGA has the QB edge; perhaps a substantial one, as Hurts has been very unimpressive overall. Yes, he can beat us with his legs, and yet, Bama has some great WR talent, but I just don’t see Hurts beating us with his arm on Monday. Oh, I think the intangibles are in our favor as well, as we should have the crowd edge (I’m guessing 60/40), along with the fact that we just played at MBS last month.

    Overall, I think 21-24 points will win the game for us; the same can be said for Bama, and I see this being a low scoring affair in what should be a classic of a game.

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    • dawgman3000

      3&G, at this point, I have absolutely no reason to doubt your analysis brother.

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    • TXBaller

      With you 3rd. Jimmy Vaccaro (South Point Casino) yesterday stated UGA money came in early – in particular moneyline betting (for novices, that means UGA outright) that took the line down. That money was all smart/sharp money. Fav money will come in as the game draws closer – likely driving the number and moneyline back up. I’m on the DAWGS moneyline and over 44.5 total in the game. History says there will be no shortage of points and the game will likely be one sided.

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    • CLT Dawg

      Agree…solid take on the game

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    • Cojones

      Began to read replies when I had to excuse myself for a personal moment. Upon returning, your post was queued up and, as I read, thought I was reading a continuation of Bluto’s analysis. Hitting your points in the last para made me completely in agreement with your overall post as I realized suddenly it was 3rd’s. It’s realistic and held off on the Kool-Aid such that we can heft one right after the game. Solid post.

      Me too.

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      • 3rdandGrantham

        Thanks much everyone for your kind words. I’ll expand on this over the weekend or on Monday morning, as I have quite a bit more I’d like to say but alas, work is calling me.

        In the meantime, I’ll simply say that I feel quite good about our positioning overall, and feel we have a really good chance at winning this thing. Heck, if I were a betting man, I might even take UGA straight up with no points.

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  5. ugafidelis

    34 points. I’m worried about how our O-line can hold up without having to bring in the TEs. If we can’t loosen UA out of the box I think it will be a long night.
    I think our D can stop them but I’m afraid they’ll be on the field so much that they’ll be worn out by late in the game.

    I know that’s all gloom and doom but my mind keeps going back to that first Auburn game.

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    • paul

      Alabama wearing us down is my main concern. They just have so many bodies. I think our ones are as good as their ones. But their twos and threes are as good as their ones. And they just keep shuffling them in and out. We’e WAY ahead of where we’ve been in the past but I’m not sure we’re as deep as Alabama at this point. I believe conditioning will be a major factor.

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  6. Jared S.

    We’ll need 38.

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  7. 28? I have no idea how this game will go, but think it will be a battle of the little things. Which special teams unit shows out? Can we force Hurts to turn the ball over? Can Fromm avoid the same? Can we keep our emotions in check, unlike the first series of the Rose Bowl?

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Hobnail_Boot

    15 to win. Bama’ offense isn’t scoring more than 2 TDs. Obvious caveat of a non-offensive score.

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  9. I think UGA can win with 20 points, but that would require playing near-perfect ball on ST. If you told me UGA would score 24 I’d feel pretty damn good.

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  10. Derek

    20 can get it done. Hopefully, we’ll get more.

    We need to run their DL to death early and then go big and straight at their LB’s until they’re wore out.

    OSU’s game plan a couple of years ago is a nice blue print for it. Make them run east/west early. Hit enough passes downfield to make the LB’s think pass and not pin their ears back and then start running north and south until they break.

    Biggest key here is defense though. If we want our offensive identity to be what it’s been, we have to play huge on defense. We get in a shoot out and Fromm is going to have a hard time, just like he did at Jordan Hare in November.

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    • gastr1

      Of course you know that we’ll have to stay on the field to make that work…therein lies the rub. Wasn’t all that successful against ND or Awbarn I.

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  11. Billy Mumphrey

    21-17 Dawgs

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  12. DawgFlan

    24 gives me hope, 31 gives me confidence.

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  13. Yurdle

    1 more than Bama.

    Talent wise, I think it’s a general push on the lines. Both DL’s are better than the opposing OL. We have better LBs. They have better WRs and better DBs. RBs a push. QB leans our way a bit, but only a bit and only in the pass game. Both have good punters, though I like our placekicking and returners better.

    That’s the talent. But practically any of these units could dominate. Do Bama’s injuries come home to roost? Do Hurts and Ridley connect? Who gets the cheap score? Who is mentally ready? Who has that special play that actually works?

    Both teams prize control and will try to impose their wills. So, appropriately, it will be the unpredictable aspects of the game that decide it.

    Liked by 1 person

  14. Got Cowdog

    Beat me to it, Yurdle. Just one more.

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  15. watcher16

    We need to score one more than them 🙂

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  16. The other Doug

    Both of these coaches will be as conservative as they can get away with while waiting for the other team to crack. I think the first team to 20 wins.

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  17. David K.

    Both defenses are going to make the opposing QB beat them. The run games are going to get stuffed. I’d rather have Fromm than Hurts.

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  18. kfoge

    Hindsight is 20/20 but that Auburn lost in the regular season is turning out to be a blessing. The team was humbled and seems to be refocused. Chaney had gotten into a routine and wasn’t being creative because everything was working against mediocre teams and he had to reevaluate how he was game planning and calling things, Cleveland was inserted into the OL because they had a hole there exposed….. though it was a butt whipping, a lot of good has come out of that Auburn loss.

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  19. TMC DAWG

    Swing passes to the running backs. Pound the ball. Strike deep a couple times. Special teams dominate. UGA wins 27 20. Go dawgs!

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  20. Biggus Rickus

    I think 20 wins it, but I’m not optimistic about Georgia moving the ball in this game. If they can just get moderate production out of Chubb and Michel, I think that will be enough, but I can easily see Alabama holding them to under 100 combined.

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  21. BCDawg97

    24-17 Dawgs

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  22. Busta

    We’ll score at least 31, we’ll ride that high of the Rose and make Bama seem flat. We’ll flip the script of Bama’s games and have them wondering “what happened”. I think I see a beached elephant, must be low tide…Kirby’s 1-0 against former bosses (Chris Hatcher) so watch out Nick. GO DAWGS!!!

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  23. Rusty

    I’ve enjoyed reading the comments on this post.
    31 sounds really good to me. Hopefully we won’t need that many but 31 gives me the warm fuzzies

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  24. DawgPhan

    I feel like 35 points feels safe. We get 35 and we likely win.

    That probably requires a special teams score. But we are going to get one.

    I we need to outscore them on defense and special teams.

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  25. Busta

    I’m saying 31 will be more than enough, as in Bama scores two to three times in any combination of FG/TDs. They score no more than 21.

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  26. Thatguy

    Bovada has, for entertainment purposes only, the O/U at 44.5 – https://sports.bovada.lv/football/college/alabama-georgia-201801082000 – Were I a betting man, I’d say that if UGA can clear 28 on Monday, then I’m a happy fat man.

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  27. Will

    I think we will need 27, I just don’t see Bama getting to 30. Roquan vs Hurts in the read option is going to matter a lot.

    Does anyone think this Alabama offense is better than ND? I sure don’t. The question to me is: has our offense improved enough to overcome the gap of ND and Bama’s defense?

    I’m not sure, but I am confident that our D will slow down offense.

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  28. Cojones

    The longer we are close in this game, the more confidence our boys will have that will send them over the top at the last.

    Good luck, Dawgs, and “Sic’em!!”

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    • Busta

      Cojones we’ll be ahead the whole time in this game, their only chance is us turning the ball over multiple times. The Seniors are goin to reach back to the 15 game and put the biggest stamp on the revenge tour…nobody survives The Revenge Tour, not even Bama.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Uglydawg

      Swift breaks a long one, late. Like he did the last game in Atlanta.

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  29. AusDawg85

    Nick Chubb’s last game. I think he puts everything he’s got into it. Even if that means taking the pounding up the middle so Sony/Swift are free to hit the edges.

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  30. ChiliDawg

    I’m shocked by the score predictions I’m seeing. I don’t think either team scores 21+. Prepare for a nail biter.

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  31. Have any of you pards glanced at the stats from the Sugar Bowl? My Gawd, the Tahd ran for 3.333333 ypc and Hurts passed 24 times for 120 yards! Their offense generated next to nothing and only some heroic exploits from the defense (primarily Jennings who is now OUT) tipped the scales.

    As painful a thing as that game was to watch it taught me a few things, including: 1) the Bama O is not to be feared; 2) the Bama PK is aggressively average; 3) Saban and the Deathstar are slipping down the back end of their dynastic cycle.

    The expected points necessary to take this game are irrelevant. This Dawgs edition will score just as many as are needed to prevail. As HW was in ’80, so will The Jake be in ’18 — a freshman at the wheel of a renewed SEC dominance.

    Sic ‘Em till they lose that houndstooth hubris.

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