An early look at strength of schedule

Phil Steele checks in with a ranking of the 130 FBS teams based on the NCAA’s approach, which is to combine opponents’ records from the previous season.  By that measure, Georgia ranks a solid middle of the pack 63rd, hardly the stuff of Finebaumian indignation.  (‘Bama is nine slots higher, Paul.)

Of course, as Steele notes, the way the NCAA measures strength of schedule is not without its flaws.  Playing a 10-2 powerhouse 1-AA team that’s fattened up its record against opponents from that level is likely not the same as playing an 8-4 program in a P5 conference, but the NCAA treats them as so for purposes of this metric.

Steele looks at other factors:

There are other ways to measure schedule strength. Who played the most teams with a winning record last year? Well that way came up with two teams. #1 on this list Florida St and #76 Rice both play 10 teams with winning records. For Florida St all 10 of their teams went on to play in a bowl game. On the opposite end New Mexico St will only face 4 opponents with a winning record.

How about who faces the most teams who made the postseason in 2017? For purposes of this article, we’ll count the 78 FBS bowl participants, the 24 FCS playoff teams, and Grambling St and North Carolina A&T, who played in the Celebration Bowl. Here, Florida St, Utah, NC State, Kansas, Iowa St and Oklahoma are facing 10 teams off a post season appearance last year. New Mexico St is the only team that will face less than three bowl teams in 2018 (2).

Opponents who finished last year in the Top 25? Michigan was on top with six teams that were ranked at the end of the season last year. Florida St, Auburn, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, LSU and Rutgers follow with five teams.

The Dawgs face two teams that were ranked last season, seven teams with winning 2017 records and six schools that played in bowl games.  That’s not Florida State, but it’s not any worse that Ohio State, either, and I don’t hear a whole lot of moaning from the national media about Corch’s team in that regard.


Filed under Georgia Football, Phil Steele Makes My Eyes Water, Stats Geek!

17 responses to “An early look at strength of schedule

  1. Dave

    You’ve developed quite the schedule inferiority complex there, Bluto.

    It’ll be alright. The good thing about playing in the SEC and, hopefully, the CFPs, is that you have a chance to completely dismantle any arguments about a weak schedule by winning your last 3 games.


  2. Beave

    Despite already playing a 9 game conference schedule already, Ohio State has scheduled two other P5 schools in Oregon State and TCU. No other SEC school is even playing 10 P5 schools this season.


  3. Bright Idea

    I’m OK with keeping our SOS down by beating the crap out of Tenn and Florida every year helping to dismantle their reputations. On the other hand playing Austin Peay in the opener is simply asking to create the perception that our schedule is overly soft and closing out with UMass when the speculation about the playoff is rampant won’t help either. One or the other but not both.


  4. Muttley

    Georgia should get a lot of extra criticism for being the only team in the East that doesn’t have to play Georgia. (Maybe they should demand that we count G-Day as a conference game…but then we’d get criticized for catching ourselves at home).

    And let’s factor this in: if you’re Texas A&M, Pittsburgh, or Georgia Tech (rather than Georgia, Alabama, or Auburn), your opponents are statistically a bit more likely to be bowl-eligible or ranked- because they played Texas A&M, Pittsburgh, or Georgia Tech (rather than Georgia, Alabama, or Auburn). The act of measuring the phenomenon changes the phenomenon…sort of.


  5. The Dawg abides

    Anyone else getting the ad for the painting of Bama’s winning td with Saban raising his arms? Nutpunch.


  6. Brandon

    You also have to consider that our numbers are somewhat artificially low here because UF, UT, and Tech ALL did not make bowls last year. The last time all 3 did not make bowls was in the 1980’s. As much as I would like it to, I seriously doubt that will happen again. Probably at least 2/3 of the seasons since have ended with all 3 in bowls. I’d be very surprised if Florida isn’t bowling next year and at least one of either Tech or Tennessee will likely scrape up 6 wins.


  7. Cojones

    Question: Does our AD know of the committee judgement criterion being placed on the ooc schools that he schedules? Does he measure the sos when doing so?


  8. lakedawg

    Home schedule, excepting the barn, BLAH, away schedule acceptable.