ESPN’s stats never sleep.

Welp, the first edition of 2018’s Football Power Index is out and Georgia is ranked third, behind Clemson and Alabama.

Interestingly enough, while Alabama is ranked ahead in the FPI, the Dawgs are actually given a better chance of winning the SEC.  (Again!)

Alabama might be the reigning champs, but Georgia is the favorite to win the SEC. The Bulldogs have a 42 percent chance to repeat as the conference champions, edging Alabama (37 percent) and Auburn (11 percent).

FPI actually believes the Crimson Tide are the second-best team in the nation, just ahead of third-best Georgia, but because Alabama is in the SEC West and therefore has a more difficult conference schedule, the conference title odds swing toward Georgia.

FPI favors Georgia in every game on the 2018 schedule.  The closest call is against Auburn, which also happens to be the only team Georgia plays ranked in the top twenty of this edition of FPI.  Georgia does play five teams ranked between 20 and 30, though, and the overall strength of schedule is ranked a credible, if not super challenging, 43.

34 Comments

Filed under ESPN Is The Devil, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

34 responses to “ESPN’s stats never sleep.

  1. Huntindawg

    I say this hoping it doesn’t happen, but being happy with the result if it does: the Dawgs go undefeated, win the SEC and the committee doesn’t put them in the playoff because of strength of schedule. Then we never play Austin Peay or anyone like them again and actually have a full slate of interesting games every year.

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    • Jim

      Win the SEC as an undefeated team? Can’t fathom that team wouldnt be in

      Road win at LSU, beat Auburn, beat west champ? That’s a playoff resume

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      • Russ

        Easily. Even a one-loss SEC champ is a lock. The only way a 1-loss SEC champ doesn’t get in is if the ACC, Big Whatever, Big 12, and Pac 12 champs are all undefeated. I’m not even sure that’s possible (haven’t checked schedules).

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      • Macallanlover

        Yes, of all things to be concerned about, this is the least to worry about. Guess it is the Georgia Way to find something to worry about, even if its probability is less than one tenth of one percent.

        I agree that Auburn is the biggest threat on the regular schedule. If we remain reasonably healthy, UGA has a better chance to go undefeated in 2018 than any year in recent memory. First “even up” matchup could be against Bama in the SECCG. By then, our defense should have developed to the point of carrying their share of the load, but I still think the offense has to be the one to carry the bigger load.

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    • DawgByte

      I hear ya.

      I hope we never see another schedule like 2018 ever again! I’ve been preaching for years that we need to schedule competitive teams within the PAC-12, Big 10, Big 12 every year. It’s time to take UGA’s brand to a national level.

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    • PTC DAWG

      You funny.

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  2. dawgtired

    Not many elite opponents but we have 5 opponents in the 20-30 rank area. That’s pretty solid.

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  3. Well let’s compare SEC Schedules:
    Common opponents:
    Auburn, Tennessee, Missouri, LSU
    Alabama – MSU, Mississippi, Arkansas, Texas A&M
    Georgia – Tennessee, Florida, South Carolina, Vandy

    Mississippi State stands out – but they have them at home.
    A&M Stands out – but also at home.

    Georgia is at South Carolina
    UF – neutral field

    Their out of conference schedule is almost as weak as Georgia’s – might be as weak, depending Louisville verses Tech. so there isn’t a ‘big’ out of conference game that might take it out of either team, etc.

    Bottom-line; their schedule is a ‘little’ more difficult, but that is based on paper today. We may look back and see a weaker MSU and A&M (first year) and a good USC and a much improved UF.

    Finally, the other difference may be the physical nature of UT and UF. With the coaches they now have in place; I expect both of those teams to be much more physical. These games ‘at best’ beat your team up and in some cases, cost you a player or two for a few weeks. That is where depth comes in.

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  4. Athens Dog

    Mr. Montana expects us to go 9 – 3………………

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    • 92 grad

      Mandel? That guy is a tool. His early SI stuff was enjoyable but now I wouldn’t take anything he writes seriously.

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  5. ChiliDawg

    I guess I don’t understand why they have Clemson ahead of two teams that were clearly better than them at the end of last year. Hopes and dreams?

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    • Derek

      Trevor Lawrence perhaps?

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      • Macallanlover

        Just one game but he looked very uncomfortable in the Army AA game. Could have just been nerves, or a new offense, but it was his first time against top athletes and he flunked it. I am sure he will develop into a top QB before it is over, just don’t see him winning that QB battle, Clemson has recruited well. It will be their defensive front that will make them a Top 5 team in 2019, imo.

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      • Sides

        They also return their starter from last year.

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    • dawgtired

      I’m with you. Clemson looked hopeless against Bama in the playoff game. Why would they now be better? It’s not like Bama has a depleting turnover. And, we played Bama much better than they…and we’re not having a depleting turn over. Don’t get me wrong, Clemson deserves high respect, but why ahead of Bama and UGA?

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    • Look at what they have coming back on the DL.

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    • ugafidelis

      Our Yoots probably.

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  6. 3rdandGrantham

    I’m having a real hard time understanding why they put our chances of winning at SCU higher than at Mizzou. Simply put, SCU is a far tougher place to play…especially in week 2 where the crowd will be rocking and the temp will be around 118 with 89% humidity. IMO our chances of winning there are around 60-65%, not 79% as they have us currently pegged.

    I’m also surprised they gave us a 77% chance of winning at LSU. I know they have no QB and coach O at the helm, but still. Finally, I think AU suffers a big drop off next year, as they lost their stud RB and 4 of 5 OL starters. IMO, this will be one of those disappointing 8-5 type seasons for Gus that he’s well known for, and the natives will be quite vocal as to why in the hell they gave him such a lucrative, long-term contract.

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    • Macallanlover

      AU, LSU, and FU are teams I would put ahead of South carolina as a threat. Columbia is a tough place to play, and the Cock fans will be wild for their 1-0, undefeated team, so I think they could be a longshot to win. They just don’t have the talent, or depth, to match up well with us. I see them 3rd or 4th in the East. If Mizzou had not lost their OC, I would put them as the East runner up, now its depends on how Barbs’ little baby uses the talent he has inherited.

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      • dawgtired

        As you mentioned, I’m thinking the coaching change at Mizzu slows them some, but I also feel the same about UF. New coach, new schemes…they will not be gelled together yet (hopefully) for the 2018 season. AU, LSU and SC will be to 3 teams with continuity from 2017. AU loses some special talent but I can’t shake what they did to us and Bama in the regular season games. So I see AU, LSU and SC as the three toughest games. Although, I do agree that SC lacks the talent to beat us or even come within 2 TD’s like last season. LSU and SC will be the most distracting venues.

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        • Macallanlover

          Different world when they aren’t at home cheating with their music playing right up to the snap, which is illegal. And they did lose the biggest part of their offense and defense. But they do have some athletes who can always get up for a big game. Not giving them a great shot at us, but I am a firm believer in the “any given Saturday” so I will just save my worrying for game week.

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          • Ozam

            Mac…agree x1000. I’ve been posting about the damn techno music AU piped in and unless you were there, it is impossible to explain. 95,000 fans screaming + deafening music up until the millisecond before the snap makes for a very difficult environment. If such tactics are are legal, every small school should buy empire state building size speakers and start blasting away.

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      • Uglydawg

        Agree, Mac. In the blistering heat and humidity of WB stadium, depth will be the crucial and deciding factor. This will be another year where opposing linebackers will be getting bruised up by our hosses. By the fourth quarter, the Dawgs should be rocking and rolling.

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        • I haven’t been back to Williams Brice since Quincy Carter in 2000. I’ve been in nearly every SEC stadium, several numerous times, since that date but don’t believe I have ever encountered a more hostile situation than that day. And it wasn’t even night time.

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    • HiAltDawg

      Because I assure you some donkey pointed out to ESPN out that Mizzou scored thousands of points and gained miles of yardage against us last year

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    • ChiliDawg

      It’s a shame that SCU won’t have to play in the same 118 with 89% humidity.

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  7. dawgtired

    I noticed that UCF is ranked 55th. How can they disrespect the reigning national champions that way?

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    • Uglydawg

      Just keeping them under the radar. They will swoop in at the end of the year and snatch the NC trophy away to the south.

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  8. steve

    An early (1st 2 Q’s) tipping point at USC Jr will be how well B Mac performs as a play caller. Hopefully, he will be a themeless Larry Scott type amateur. A late tipping point will be our O and D line depth.
    We should worry about USC Jr. and be ready to call on Fields since it is unlikely Boom prepares extensively for his type skill.

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    • ChiliDawg

      What is with the hand-wringing over SCU? And now we’re worried about Fromm? He played well enough on the road at Notre Dame, SEC title game, Rose Bowl and National Championship game. Why anyone would think we’d need to pull him at the hen house is beyond me.

      By the way, B-mac as a first time OC trotting out a new up-tempo offense for the first time against a defense like Georgia doesn’t sound like a recipe for success to me.

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      • steve

        ‘Why anyone would think we’d need to pull him at the hen house is beyond me’….If you own an insurance policy (on anything or anyone) the answer is evident.

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        • ChiliDawg

          I own multiple insurance policies. That doesn’t cause me to think my car is going to break down. You literally made no sense.

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  9. Russ

    I fully expect Kirby to have the boys’ attention on Sackerlina. We’ll grind them down like we did last year. I expect a “statement” victory.

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