I’m seeing a certain amount of anxiety over the threat South Carolina poses in the SEC East this season. Lots of focus on their players and the schedule, but there’s one thing I’m not seeing addressed in the comments here.
“It’s something we chart every day,” Muschamp said. “(Defensive coordinator Travaris Robinson) and our defensive staff do a fantastic job of coaching turnovers and emphasizing turnovers, we have not gotten the ball out well this spring at all.”
The Gamecocks led the SEC and were tied for ninth in the nation last year with 28 takeaways (14 interceptions, 14 fumbles). Their plus-11 turnover margin was second in the SEC and tied for 13th in the nation.
Before you pooh-pah this, you might want to consider the role turnover margin played for Boom during his Florida tenure. Here’s how that broke down over his last three seasons:
Florida’s record those three seasons? 11-2, 4-8 and 6-5, respectively. Pretty solid correlation there.
I would say that Agent Muschamp is working with a thinner margin for error in Columbia than he was in Gainesville — lower level of talent and a much more formidable Georgia team. Maybe somebody can explain why regression to the mean won’t hurt the ‘Cocks this season as much as it did the Gators in 2013.
Get The Picture 
I would say losing your QB1 and QB2 to season ending injuries in 2013 could have also played a factor….
To dig even deeper it looks like they gained 30 turnovers in 2012 and 2014. Maybe offense was the issue? There is no doubt the SC defense this year will be as solid as its been the last 2 years. The talent has increased along with the system knowledge. The question is going to be how much the offense has improved.
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When exactly did UF have great QB play during the Boom era?
I would say that’s one advantage SC has over his Gator teams.
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If he had above average QB play/offense at UF then he would still be the coach. I just don’t think your turnover stats tell the whole story of his tenure at UF so I guess I disagree with the premise of your question. I don’t think turnovers are just random. There is a reason each season for the turnover margin. SC may not create as many turnovers but a more mature/healthy offense could also protect the ball better. UF had offensive issues in 2013 and 2014. I don’t think SC will have the same problems.
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Never said it was the whole story, as I was careful to use the word correlation instead of causation. That being said, I’m not sure exactly what you’re questioning. UF’s best season under Muschamp came with a top-10 turnover margin.
Are you suggesting that S Car will have a great season even if turnover margin declines significantly from last season?
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First, I never said they would have a great season. I have been a fan long enough that I wouldn’t predict that. If they were top 10 in turnover margin then it could be a great season but that goes for almost all major conference teams. I just said the turnover margin may not decline even though SC may not create as many turnovers. Remember, the offense and defense contribute to the turnover margin numbers.
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Ah… gotcha. Well, I’m not predicting that will happen, just questioning what happens to SC as a threat in the East if it does.
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What would happen to UGA this season if the turnover margin declined significantly?
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UGA was +4 in turnover margin last season, compared to SC’s +11. You know what regression to the mean is, right?
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No need to be rude. Not everything has to be a fight. You know if any team’s turnover margin drops significantly then the season may not be as great as people hope. UGa had a special season last year. Hopefully the injury rate doesn’t regress to the mean.
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Since when is asking a legitimate question being rude? Are you arguing in the context of this discussion that there isn’t a significant difference between going +4 and +11?
I wasn’t making any predictions about SC’s upcoming season, merely asking if folks were taking regression to the mean into account based on (1) a Muschamp quote; (2) Muschamp’s track record at UF; and (3) a real-world statistical concept. Your rebuttal appears to be bad things can happen to any team.
So, yeah, that’s why I asked you the question.
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It is rude to ask questions like that. For example, it’s like me asking chilidog if he can read. It’s a legitimate question based on the stupidity of his response but it would be rude to ask.
The post is fine and I like when you blog about SC. I just think you are reading muschamp’s turnover margin at Florida wrong. If I remember from the stats above his d forced 30 turnovers in 2012, a lot less in 2013, and 30 in 2014. 2013 was the year he lost 2 starting qb’s so I think the d quit a little. Then they were just as effective in 2014 but the margin dropped because of offense. I don’t expect that offensive drop off this year.
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Rudeness was not my intention. If you took it that way, apologies.
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Bunch of babies around here. Maybe we need a GTP safe space. Anxiously awaiting your disapproval of my comment. It’s the Senator’s blog and he wasn’t rude.
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It was a snarky question. I have no problem with snark, but let’s not pretend it was some innocent inquiry into whether or not he understood the concept of regression to the mean.
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I’m always impressed with people who’ve never met me in person, don’t know me, but yet are fully confident about knowing what’s in my mind when I post something.
Buddy, if I said I didn’t mean to be rude, I didn’t mean to be rude.
Now if I wanted to be rude to you, I’d tell you to fuck off with the virtual psychoanalysis. See the difference?
To save you the trouble of further analysis, yes, that was snarky.
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You know what snark is, right?
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You know he didn’t accuse me of being snarky, right?
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No, he called you rude because you asked him a sarcastic question.
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Man, give it a rest. You’ve got an opinion, I think it’s bullshit and never the twain shall meet.
Go find another blog if your fee-fees can’t handle it.
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Ah yes, my feelings are hurt. I would just prefer you to be honest when someone calls you out for something. I don’t even think you should admit you’re in the wrong. God knows, I’m often sarcastic. But don’t run some line of bullshit about how you were “just askin'” when someone does take offense to your tone.
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I’ve already explained myself to him — and apologized. Tough shit if you don’t like it.
You’ve made your point now repeatedly. Move on.
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Don’t hold back on my account, Sally. I’ve got much thicker skin than you do.
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Correlation without causation? What does that mean? In the medical field it means bullshit. It’s used all the time by alternative medicine quacks to dupe the unsuspecting public into buying worthless “cures”. Showing correlation means you want to start looking at something, but it is complete BS unless you can prove causation.
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Okay, I’m game. How do you prove causation here?
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I’m not a statistician and the confounding variables in this case could very well make it impossible to “prove” causation. A statistician could probably design a study that would show that the better turnover margin a team has the more successful season they will have. But I think we already know that. I was probably a little harsh in my comment, but in the alternative medicine arena, quacks use correlation as “proof” of causation all the time. They are liars and thieves. Billions of dollars are wasted each year on these cures and they cost many people their lives. Just ask Steve Jobs. Oh wait, you can’t because he’s dead. Anyway, as you can tell this is kind of a pet peeve of mine. Didn’t mean any criticism, but the whole correlation/causation thing sets me off. Getting back to the important stuff, we are going to kick SC’s ass no matter what they do.
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After reading statistical stuff from guys like Bill Connelly and Matt Hinton for years, about all we have to go on with stats like this is correlation and seeing which particular variables line up with wins and losses more than others.
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Fair enough.
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I think playing SoCar when UGA plays them is a large reason why some UGA fans seem antsy about the game. SoCar always seems to play UGA well at home, and week-2 breaking in so many new players on defense against a seasoned QB does sound scary on paper.
I tend to think it’ll be closer than I’d like it to be but that will be more about the pace of the game than what SoCar does against UGA.
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It’s called “Mark Richt Syndrome.”
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I was/am a Richt fan, but you are absolutely right. Games like this are why Kirby is now coaching here. I fully expect the team to be totally focused on Sackerlina and to perform accordingly. Boom seems to have Sackerlina playing to their potential, but I don’t think Kirby will give them any help.
Anything can happen, but Kirby seemed to have the full attention of the team last year, and I expect that will continue this year.
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When SC is fully healthy the talent gap is not as large. As the season wears on and players get banged up the depth starts to show up. SC has struggled with KY the last 3 years because the games are early in the season. KY starts hot but depth shows up by the middle of the season.
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“When SC is fully healthy the talent gap is not as large.”
As large as what? The talent gap between the New York Yankees and the Central Gwinnett Black Knights? SCjr is not close to UGA in talent. Fully healthy or not. A quick perusal of past recruiting rankings will tell you all you need to know on that front.
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Your last two comments, about CMR and the talent gap, is exactly why I’m not worried about teams like USC. There is a different mentality with Kirby and an even greater talent gap now. We have more talent than most teams we will play this season. Bama, of course, may be a little better and LSU/Aub are close to us, but we should handle the rest easily. I’m looking forward to another championship run this year. We may miss the playoff if we lose the SECC game but we will be in the discussion for sure.
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It might not be “as large,” but when UGA kicks off against SoCar in week-2 the gap will be large nonetheless.
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Carolina wins 7-8 again, nothing to see here..
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It wouldn’t be the off-season if there weren’t Georgia fans giving Carolina more credit than they deserve.
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Saw the title, and heard “that’s what she said” in my head…
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Lol, good one
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I don’t get the angst and teeth mashing over SCar. We are in a different stratosphere compared to them if you look at the talent level. This ain’t your CMR’s team…
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The best team they beat last year was NC State. Even the Michigan win was against a team that would have been ‘at best’ middle of the road in the SEC. They are the ‘hot’ pick to challenge Georgia this year. The only shot that they have is that they are catching UGA early. I think the Dawgs will run over these guys…
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They are the only pick to challenge UGA this year in the East…has to be someone. it’s them, by default.
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I always enjoy “regression to mean” when it’s our opponent doing the regression. Our injury situation, not so much. . .
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I think the Cocks are going to see and fell the effects of Smart’s OL recruiting. They better force turnovers or it’s gonna be ugly with a lot of ground yards and a big TOP difference.
I think this team has been and is being built for this kind of road game.
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I’ll take an opponent that goes for the ball instead of the ball carrier. That’s usually good for at least 4-5 extra yards.
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10.5 O/U win total for our upcoming season. Who else besides Auburn at home should be a better team, identity wise, than South Carolina that we play on the road? Even Bama doesn’t go undefeated. It’s an early game in the hot sun, on the road in a hostile environment. We have no game tape on their new offense which should be running warp speed. Our Dine will be tired 4th Q. Anxiety? No. Realistic? Yes. Could we lose that one and recover and learn from it and still win the east, absolutely. Win it, then hells yes. Go Dogs!
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I agree. The analytics indicate South Carolina could be headed for a regression in 2018. They were an overachieving team last year that won a lot of games in ways that aren’t sustainable.
Having said, they do have a veteran signal-caller and are getting Deebo back, so they should be qualitatively better next year. It just might not show up in the win-loss record if the turnover margin regresses to the mean.
Verdict: They won’t be an easy out, but their threat to UGA’s standing at the top of the East is being overstated in some circles.
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They also lost half their defense, a couple of offensive line starters and Hurst. I think Bentley is a solid QB, and I thought some of their young receivers looked pretty good, but they still have mediocre running backs and a general lack of talent. I just don’t see a whole lot to recommend them over Florida or Missouri as the clear second best team in the East.
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