Mr. Conventional Wisdom’s take on this year’s SEC East race

I know you’re on pins and needles, so let’s not waste another minute teasing you.

About Georgia, he says,

GEORGIA (7-1)

Who they will beat: at Missouri, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, at LSU, Florida (in Jacksonville), at Kentucky, Auburn.

Who they will lose to: at South Carolina.

Analysis: Georgia has a lot of rebuilding to do, especially on defense, but they are going to rebuild with very talented players. So the best time to play the Bulldogs will be early. I went to Columbia twice in the spring and the Gamecocks are very much looking forward to Georgia’s visit on Sept. 8. Georgia gets upset at Williams-Brice Stadium and then runs the table to the SEC East championship.

I guess what it takes to beat the Dawgs these days is to be very much looking forward to playing them.  Remember, you heard it here first.

56 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Mr. Conventional Wisdom, SEC Football

56 responses to “Mr. Conventional Wisdom’s take on this year’s SEC East race

  1. 3rdandGrantham

    To be fair, I’m worried about the SCU game, and I have it as almost a toss-up right now. With that said, if we lose to SCU, we probably won’t be running the table the rest if the way, and SCU probably won’t lose two conference games with their easy SEC slate this year. As for SCU being amped to play us, big deal….they are like that yearly given we are their #2 rival and given the amount of money players they have from GA whom we didn’t offer.

    Oh, I’m also surprised he has UT going 4-4 in conference. That would mean they will have a 7-8 win season, which I just don’t see happening.

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    • doofusdawg

      Will probably be a 3;30 kickoff and 98 degrees. We will be lucky to get out of there with a w and may need Fields legs for a spark… especially if Zeus is not back.

      Maybe a hurricane will cause the game to be rescheduled.

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    • Derek

      I don’t see it. They don’t have any where near the type of roster to play in that game. When we struggled over there it was when either our roster was down or when their roster had dudes. There’s no Jadaveon Clowney over there any more. There best defender, Skai Moore, is gone and went undrafted btw.

      Sakerlina may be 2nd, but they are a distant one in my view.

      If the offensive line is anywhere close to where I think it will be by then, that will not be a close game.

      Liked by 1 person

      • 3rdandGrantham

        We will see, and I hope I’m wrong. Still think this is an ugly game where we need to hold on late to win.

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        • Derek

          If Cheney decides to chuck 45 times like we did in 2007, maybe it will be close.

          I think we’ll pound the rock until they collapse and I don’t see them being able to put up a lot of points precisely because they can’t run the ball.

          I will admit though that I might be biased. For the first time I can remember, I dreamed last night that I was watching us play next year. We were phenomenal.

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  2. Playing at SoCar isn’t easy and getting the game in week 2 is better for them than us. Having said that. the front 7 for SoCar is not great and they lack explosive RBs. They do have a nice QB (not sure I’d go beyond that adjective) and they have two very good WRs.

    But I don’t think they’re going to be able to stop UGA’s offense, which means they’re going to have to win in a shootout which I don’t think they can do.

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    • illini84

      Oh but it’s soooo intimidating there!

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      • I mean… it sort of is. Just look at UGAs record playing there compared to Athens. It’s a solid advantage for SoCar to have the game in Columbia.

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        • Huntindawg

          Regardless of your opinion of South Carolina, you have to hand it to their fans. They can be going through a losing season and still pack the stadium on Saturday at noon. And I have to admit it is a pretty exciting atmosphere there.

          Liked by 1 person

    • Otto

      I just hope Swift is healthy. He should be but he hasn’t been 100% UGA grinds out a W that doesn’t impress in the rankings but gets the job done.

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      • I’m very skeptical SoCar is going to commit to the HUNH style of offense, but if they do it could be ugly for them if UGA can get some stops early. I tend to think Boom will revert a bit and go half hurry up, half not, which will still limit the number of possessions for each team in similar ways to last year.

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        • Otto

          I agree and further McClendon could be an improvement. He called a solid game for UGA as OC. Granted that is 1 game.

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  3. AusDawg85

    Advantage to SCU because it’s early in the season…they being the more experienced, better prepared, more talented team and all while Kirby’s pups need more tune-up games to get in gear.

    Got it.

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  4. Greg

    50-18-2….gonna be a tough game, but Steve Spurrier is no longer there. Dawgs win this one.

    “You heard it here first”

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  5. doubledawg09

    I think the folks picking USCe to upset UGA are forgetting what a huge difference Hayden Hurst made for that offense. He was a vacuum at tight end and could get open against either LBs due to his speed or DBs due to his size. He essentially gave Bentley an every down security blanket. It’s not easy to replace such a reliable first down conversion machine. I think not having to deal with such a mismatch gives our inexperienced secondary and middle LBs a better chance at coverage. Assuming we find a reliable Robin to Deandre Baker’s Batman…

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    • Yeah, but the ‘Cocks get Deebo back. That’s a pretty big deal, IMO.

      Liked by 1 person

      • doubledawg09

        True. And Deebo could certainly challenge the back end of our defense. But, I’m thinking, should Baker continue his stellar play, that Baker has a chance of at least getting a stalemate against Samuel. Whereas I’d be more concerned about an interior linebacking core, one that hasn’t shown it can cover in space, matching up against a legit tight end.

        I think it’s a good matchup and should be a close game. I see it as a field goal type game in favor of UGA given the home field advantage for USCe.

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        • Unless something changes, Georgia typically doesn’t match a specific corner against a specific receiver.

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          • doubledawg09

            I understand. And I know Samuel lines up all over the field, so that the times he’s covering him are limited. And I know that in-game, pattern matching may dictate that Baker releases Samuel even if he’s on him alignment wise.

            I’m just saying, when Baker is on him, and he releases deep for example, I think Baker can cover him. What I should have said is, assuming our secondary catches on and can help Baker out, we should be able to better match up with their receivers in toto than we would have if Hurst had not graduated on to the NFL.

            I get that Deebo is a weapon, but I just thought Hurst was the reliable engine that made that offense go. Maybe I’m wrong. I guess we will see. In any event, I understand your point and, assuming Deebo is back to 2016 form after his injury, he certainly poses quite the challenge to a young defense.

            Thanks for your work on the blog and keep it up. Have been an avid reader since you got started. Thanks, man.

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          • Derek

            Wouldn’t Baker have been on #6 if they hadn’t flipped him to cover Ridley on 2nd and 26?

            It seems to me that Baker generally played that side while 26 and 14 traded turns on the other.

            BTW: Baker bails prior to the snap while 14 squares up and gets scorched. Painful.

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            • Dawg1

              Didn’t Sanders admit he just got there late, it wasn’t Parrish’s fault for handing him over; that was the coverage?

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              • Derek

                Unless 1) Baker was freelancing or 2) the right side and the left side got different calls (both plausible maybe) 14 and 18 played that play exactly the opposite of each other.

                Baker turns and bails pre snap letting it be known that he’s protecting against the deep ball.

                14 has his shoulders and hips square and reaches out at the guy with his feet in concrete. 6 burns by with little resistance and because 24 was out of position that was it.

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      • If Samuel were to be able to consistently get behind (or just get open, period) against Baker, then there might be a legitimate reason to be concerned.
        But he won’t.
        Deandre Baker is a 2019 first round NFL draft pick. He is a battle-hardened and proven lock-down corner… and he will be assigned to cover Deebo, who hasn’t really proven anything yet.
        And while Jake Bentley is a pretty good QB, he hasn’t led his team to an SEC title and to within a cat whisker of the natty…as a freshman.
        You’re over-thinking this thing, Senator.
        We gon’ be jus’ fine, son.

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        • Deandre Baker is a 2019 first round NFL draft pick. He is a battle-hardened and proven lock-down corner… and he will be assigned to cover Deebo, who hasn’t really proven anything yet.

          If Samuel hasn’t proven anything yet, why would Georgia need to change its defensive strategy by putting Baker on him full time?

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  6. Spike

    WE SHALL GET THEIR BEST SHOT!!!

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  7. Russ

    So he’s saying we’ll get Sackerlina’s best shot?

    Meh, it will be a grind but we’ll win by 2 TDs.

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  8. artful codger

    I see the S.C. visit as the venue for the next great defensive standout to show up and make the difference. Could be a senior-year veteran such as Walker … or a youngster like Rice or Grant …but somebody will step up and out.

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  9. That’s everybody’s sexy pick. USC to beat UGA. I have a very different take. USC is a poor man’s UGA. Georgia line of scrimmage is the big difference maker. Look for Georgia to literally ‘run over’ USC.

    The game to worry about is LSU. Always a tough place to play. If they find a QB (maybe the transfer from Ohio State), then that game could be the one Georgia stumbles at.

    With this said, I really think this team has a solid chance be undefeated going into the SEC Championship game. The schedule isn’t a difficult as last years – just that simple.

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    • Macallanlover

      Agree. Not saying we couldn’t lose on the road, but we are much deeper, and more talented. Going to be hot as hell. The more likely conference game for us to lose is LSU to me, much tougher atmosphere, and more quality athletes. If we lose a conference game, it will be in Red Stick, imo.

      We line up our road graders and wear them down, with State Farm hitting a few play action passes. Swift and Holyfield run for 225+, try and stop it. Again, anything is possible in road conference games, but I like us by 2-3 TDs with what we know at this point.

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  10. Cojones

    Spurrier isn’t there and suspending umpteen to tie one hand behind our back before playing SC has gone out of style. They had their chance for years and, again – what was that score in Spurrier’s last cheerleading year? And what was Boom’s success rate vs UGA while he was at FU where the players were better? I think that their big recruiting coup over UGA has been overlooked for a couple of years and I confess that I missed it – somehow.

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  11. PTC DAWG

    I could see it, hard to go undefeated in the SEC….

    In fact, I’ll take 7-1 and East Champs right now…let’s get to the Benz…

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  12. ChiliDawg

    My head just exploded

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  13. JCDAWG83

    Last season, Notre Dame and Miss St. were the pick to beat Georgia early. This year it is the chickens. Every season, it is fashionable for the “experts” to pick an upset for Georgia early in the season. The Richt years conditioned the pundits to expect Georgia to show up for a game they should win looking like they were not aware they were supposed to play that day. I think Kirby has changed that and I’m sure he will have the Dawgs as “ready for the game” as Muschamp has the chickens.

    I like to think superior talent and depth will overcome the tough environment, especially if we jump out to an early lead. The chicken fans are well known for leaving early when their team gets behind by a couple of scores.

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  14. Chickamona

    So, South Carolina is good enough to beat Georgia (which is certainly plausible), but is weak enough to lose to Ole Miss and Florida, who both went 3-5 last year in conference play. . . .

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  15. Biggus Rickus

    I’d give this more credence if Georgia opened with someone decent, but with this being Georgia’s first real opponent, they won’t be hung over or anything. And ultimately, Georgia’s far more talented.

    Liked by 1 person

  16. 81Dog

    I’m sure Kirby is sleeping on a game with his old pal, Boom. I’m sure the Chikins will play hard, but hard work only beat talent when talent ain’t working hard. UGA saw last year what happens when talent puts in the hard work. I’m pretty sure nobody coming back from last year has already forgotten how that all fits together.

    Liked by 1 person

  17. Otto

    Looking at this again, Tennessee 4-4 that seems slightly optimistic in my opinion.

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  18. DoubleDawg1318

    I think it’s perfectly reasonable to pick UGA as the East champion at 7-1. I just don’t think we’ll go undefeated but when you look at the actual schedule, it’s hard to pick one opponent as the “favorite” to be that 1 loss. SC could do it, LSU and Auburn have enough blue chippers to beat us. If everything breaks right for Mizzou or Florida, then they could do it. However, none of these games look like surefire losses.

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  19. TMC DAWG

    I know it’s a new year but last year I felt like besides Alabama SC matched our physicality better than anyone. At least for 3 quarters

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  20. The Truth

    Allow me to retort.

    We aren’t close to who we think we are, our coaching staff isn’t close to what they need to be, and recruiting rankings don’t mean dick if we lose to South Carolina.

    If we lose to South Carolina we’re just another team, just another program, cut out all the talk of something special taking place in Athens.

    Period.

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    • JCDAWG83

      If we lose to the chickens you are probably correct. If we lose to them we will also probably lose a couple more games, most likely LSU and Auburn.

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  21. Mark

    Wouldn’t surprise me in the least with the national sports media insistence that USC jr will be our Waterloo that we have Miss st repeat.

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  22. Dawg in Austin

    Kirby ain’t played in Williams-Brice at night, Pawwwwwl!!

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  23. Scott

    How would Bama fare in the game against sowcaralyna instead of the dawgs? Would there be a higher level of confidence that they would win by 20 or more? Maybe it takes another year for everyone to expect a win by the dawgs over a team such as the early contest against the hens of 2018. The confidence of a percentage of the fan-base hasn’t quite caught up with the progress of the program.

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  24. UGA '97

    Mr. Conventional and everyone else will likely give us 1 loss..I think Death Valley at night makes more sense. Bama hardly goes undefeated not beats LSU at Baton Rouge by much, so don’t think we we’ll be world beaters on every team.. We don’t actually have much depth on D which is concerning, but it could build over the course of the season. Again back to the heat, road game, young kids on O, if you are behind 1 score late in 4th Q you need leaders making plays and a D line to make stops. If SC forces fumbles, stuff’s the run, then Fromm will need to win it with his own arm and feet. Bently is the 2nd most accurate returning QB in SEC and USCar won 9 games with zero depth missing their best player and many others out with injuries last season while running on fumes. All that said, we need to be ready early. I sense our tight end’s and special teams as the difference maker.

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  25. JoshG

    If UGA loses a regular season game this year, it’s going to be in death valley. It’s weird to me that the conventional wisdom is a gamecock upset against the dawgs. How? With what? Coaching? Certainly not talent or mystique. When did Muschamp become Scott Frost? He’s always been a mediocre head coach. What has changed?

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  26. convention wisdom comes from those of us who go to watch the games in Columbia and as one who has sat through several loses in Williams-Brice it has always seemed to me that they are never better than us but DAMNED if we don’t consistently play down to their level . I’m going to indulge my magical thinking on this date and I’m just not going up there and jinx our boyz.

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