It’s May at a college football blog, part one

Here’s an early look at SEC win totals, courtesy of South Point Hotel and Casino (last year’s records in parentheses):

SEC East

  • Florida:  7.5  (4-7)
  • Georgia:  10.5  (13-2)
  • Kentucky: 5.5  (7-6)
  • Missouri:  7.5  (7-6)
  • South Carolina:  7  (9-4)
  • Tennessee:  5.5  (4-8)
  • Vanderbilt:  4  (5-7)

SEC West

  • Alabama:  11 (13-1)
  • Arkansas:  6  (4-8)
  • Auburn:  9  (10-4)
  • LSU:  7  (9-4)
  • Ole Miss:  6  (6-6)
  • Mississippi State:  8.5  (9-4)
  • Texas A&M:  7  (7-6)

My first thought on seeing that is a general perception that the conference is still mediocre outside of Alabama and Georgia.  There are only three teams listed with projected win totals better than the 2017 results — Florida, Tennessee and Arkansas (Missouri’s 7/7.5 is a wash to me) — and all three can be categorized as being in positions where there’s nowhere to go but up.  (And even with that, I still think it’s a stretch to predict Arkansas, which has significant personnel issues and a new coaching staff, will wind up bowl eligible.)

My second thought is a corollary to the first:  if the 2018 season does play out like this, it’s gonna be one boring year for the SEC.

Other random thoughts:

  • Vegas is definitely less sanguine about South Carolina’s prospects than most prognosticators I’ve read.  The ‘Cocks do have an advantage in coaching stability over several divisional rivals this season, but the talent base isn’t that great overall and they’re embarking on an offensive journey that goes against the grain of everything Boom’s done since he became a head coach.  In some ways, this will be the most interesting experiment of 2018, mainly because I wonder what happens if things go south with the hurry up.
  • Auburn at 9 wins seems a little questionable until you remember that the Tigers open with Washington and play Alabama and Georgia on the road.
  • For all the talk about Pruitt and Mullen, Joe Moorhead is flying under the radar for the most part.  Ironically, Mullen left him with a decent amount of talent to work with this season and it will be interesting to see how Moorhead puts it to use.  The Bulldogs have Auburn at home, by the way, and if that game breaks in MSU’s favor, they could finish as high as second in the division.
  • I don’t think TAMU signed Jimbo to that ridiculous contract to win seven games a year, but what do I know?
  • Tennessee’s conference schedule, particularly at mid-season, is brutal, but I can see a path to six wins if Pruitt can hold things together after October.  If the Vols can beat West Virginia in the opener, maybe more than six wins…

12 Comments

Filed under SEC Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

12 responses to “It’s May at a college football blog, part one

  1. Russ

    Auburn at 9 does seem questionable. Gus is due for another 6-7 win season.

    Like

  2. Rocketdawg

    The Bizzaro Bulldogs are the surprise team of the SEC this year. If (big if) they catch Alabama on an off game they could win the West. Mullen left a loaded team for Morehead and I fully expect them to be a 1 or 2 loss team which should translate to a New Years Six Bowl

    Like

  3. Dave

    I totally forgot TAMU signed Jimbo. Ain’t skurd.

    That MSU O/U seems like a slap in the face to Mullen/Mullen fans. As you pointed out, he left them w/ talent, but it also says, “We think the fauxdogs will have basically the same season without Mullen as they did w/ him.”

    Like

  4. Uglydawg

    The East is at least slightly improved over last year. Georgia may be a little off of what we saw last year. And Auburn will still be a tough game.
    I don’t see the Dawgs not winning the East, but it won’t be a cake walk.
    The idea that it will be is rat poison. Saban has been masterful at keeping his team away from rp, and here’s hoping that is one more coaching skill that rubbed off on CKS.

    Like

  5. 3rdandGrantham

    SCU at 7 wins actually makes sense, and I could see them winning 9 but also only winning 6. The fact is they won several very close games last year that easily could have gone the other way, as they were outplayed big time (NCST, LaTech, etc.) Also, the TO +/- was insanely in their favor as well, and to expect that to continue again also is optimistic at best.

    Though SCU fans either refuse to acknowledge as such or flippantly predict their new starters will be better than ours, they also lost about as many starters from last year’s team as we did. Yet, to hear it from them, we lost 34 seniors and they bring back everybody.

    Like

  6. “If the Vols can beat West Virginia in the opener…”

    The chances of this have to be pretty low. WVU is expected to field a pretty decent team.

    Like

  7. Argondawg

    I am just wondering what does CJP do when the losses start to mount and the natives get restless. I am not sure how he handles adversity. I think the Vols could manage to win 7 but the ball has to bounce his way. I think he has the capacity to turn on his own team or they have could turn on him. His roster is woefully thin and not very talented. They are implementing new schemes on both sides of the ball. I am not sure with UF, at UGA, at the Barn, Bama and at Carolina all together how they limp into the end of the season. That will make those last 3 conference games with Mizzou, UK and Vandy that much more challenging. It will be fun to watch.

    Like

  8. Huntindawg

    I didn’t know this was a college football blog. I thought it was the NCAA sucks/players should be paid blog.

    I’m here all week. Try the veal.

    Liked by 1 person

    • W Cobb Dawg

      Okay, I’ve held back on this for a while, but here goes. If you don’t like the blog go somewhere else. The definition of a bitch has got to be somebody who complains about a product he gets for free AND can easily avoid by turning the dial or pushing a button.

      Like

  9. Macallanlover

    You will search for a long time and not find another slam-dunk like UGA was last summer at 8 wins. You may have thought 8-4 was possible, but it wasn’t realistic to think they would go 7-5. Not being a homer, I told every one it was one of the safest bets you could ever make I made book on that one and never even thought about it again. Only downside is the amount of time your money is tied up, but where can you get almost a 100% return in 5 months time with so little risk?

    Like