Daily Archives: May 29, 2018

It’s May at a college football blog, part two

One thing stassen.com does in the preseason is compile composite rankings of the projections from all the preseason college football mags.  Three are out — Athlon, Lindy’s and Street and Smith — so here’s what that batch looks like.

 

National Top 25

 

Rank Team Total
Points
Athlon Street
and
Smith
Lindy
1 Alabama 89 1 1 2
2 Clemson 88 2 2 1
3 Ohio State 83 4 3 3
4 Georgia 82 3 4 4
5 Wisconsin 73 9 6 5
6t Miami-Florida 72 6 8 7
6t Oklahoma 72 10 5 6
8 Washington 70 8 7 8
9 Auburn 65 7 12 9
10t Michigan 61 5 9 18
10t Penn State 61 11 10 11
12 Michigan State 60 12 11 10
13 Notre Dame 52 15 14 12
14 Stanford 49 18 13 13
15 Florida State 46 13 18 16
16 Virginia Tech 44 16 16 17
17t Boise State 39 19 21 14
17t Mississippi State 39 14 20 20
19 Southern Cal 38 21 15 19
20 West Virginia 34 22 22 15
21t Central Florida 19 20 23
21t Texas 19 20 23
23t Oregon 17 23 22
23t Texas Christian 17 24 21
25t Florida 14 17
25t Louisiana State 14 17
25t South Carolina 14 24 24

If that holds up, you’ve got a noticeable gap between fourth and fifth, which should make the selection committee’s job pretty obvious.  Which means it’ll be the Big 12 and Pac-12 getting shut out of the playoffs.  Makes me wonder how long Bill Hancock’s “all is well” shtick will hold up if that’s the case.

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Filed under College Football

It’s May at a college football blog, part one

Here’s an early look at SEC win totals, courtesy of South Point Hotel and Casino (last year’s records in parentheses):

SEC East

  • Florida:  7.5  (4-7)
  • Georgia:  10.5  (13-2)
  • Kentucky: 5.5  (7-6)
  • Missouri:  7.5  (7-6)
  • South Carolina:  7  (9-4)
  • Tennessee:  5.5  (4-8)
  • Vanderbilt:  4  (5-7)

SEC West

  • Alabama:  11 (13-1)
  • Arkansas:  6  (4-8)
  • Auburn:  9  (10-4)
  • LSU:  7  (9-4)
  • Ole Miss:  6  (6-6)
  • Mississippi State:  8.5  (9-4)
  • Texas A&M:  7  (7-6)

My first thought on seeing that is a general perception that the conference is still mediocre outside of Alabama and Georgia.  There are only three teams listed with projected win totals better than the 2017 results — Florida, Tennessee and Arkansas (Missouri’s 7/7.5 is a wash to me) — and all three can be categorized as being in positions where there’s nowhere to go but up.  (And even with that, I still think it’s a stretch to predict Arkansas, which has significant personnel issues and a new coaching staff, will wind up bowl eligible.)

My second thought is a corollary to the first:  if the 2018 season does play out like this, it’s gonna be one boring year for the SEC.

Other random thoughts:

  • Vegas is definitely less sanguine about South Carolina’s prospects than most prognosticators I’ve read.  The ‘Cocks do have an advantage in coaching stability over several divisional rivals this season, but the talent base isn’t that great overall and they’re embarking on an offensive journey that goes against the grain of everything Boom’s done since he became a head coach.  In some ways, this will be the most interesting experiment of 2018, mainly because I wonder what happens if things go south with the hurry up.
  • Auburn at 9 wins seems a little questionable until you remember that the Tigers open with Washington and play Alabama and Georgia on the road.
  • For all the talk about Pruitt and Mullen, Joe Moorhead is flying under the radar for the most part.  Ironically, Mullen left him with a decent amount of talent to work with this season and it will be interesting to see how Moorhead puts it to use.  The Bulldogs have Auburn at home, by the way, and if that game breaks in MSU’s favor, they could finish as high as second in the division.
  • I don’t think TAMU signed Jimbo to that ridiculous contract to win seven games a year, but what do I know?
  • Tennessee’s conference schedule, particularly at mid-season, is brutal, but I can see a path to six wins if Pruitt can hold things together after October.  If the Vols can beat West Virginia in the opener, maybe more than six wins…

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Filed under SEC Football, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas