Your daily dose of Steele, and more

There’s a metric Steele created that tracks how a college team’s personnel losses to the NFL draft affect its record the following season:

Over the past 21 years, teams that accumulated more points than the previous year and accumulated…

12 or more points – weaker or same record 282 of 377 (74.8%)

24 or more points – weaker or same record 78 of 96 (81.3%)

35 or more points – weaker or same record 20 of 26 (76.9%)

Points are based on the round a player is drafted in — seven for the first, six for the second, etc.

Anyway, and I’m pretty sure you know where this is headed, number three on his 2018 points lost list is Georgia, with 31.  On its face, then, that would indicate Georgia has only a one-in-five chance of improving on its 2017 record.  Danger, Will Robinson!

20% ain’t nothing, though.  It’s worth noting that Alabama tops that list, with an astounding 44 points, and I don’t see Phil Steele shoveling dirt on the Tide’s grave this year.  Quite the contrary, in fact.

And that is the important corollary here.  Over time, depth, or, more accurately, talented depth, trumps departures.  With that in mind, read David Wunderlich’s post at Gator Country comparing Florida’s talent levels at each position to those of Georgia, South Carolina, and Tennessee.

In any event, Georgia has an enormous talent lead on the rest of its division. It pulled ahead in that respect thanks to its blockbuster 2018 signing class, so it’s an advantage that should prove durable for a few years.

It’s even more stark if we just look at the number of players with each given star rating on the rosters.

Team 5-Stars 4-Stars 3-Stars 2-Stars
Florida 2 34 42 2
Georgia 13 48 24 1
South Carolina 0 23 53 6
Tennessee 1 34 47 2

Florida and Tennessee combined only have ten more blue chip 4-star and 5-star players (71) than Georgia has by itself (61). That 2018 class again figures large here, as nearly half (14) of the top 30 players on UGA’s roster by the Composite are freshmen.

The SEC lives in a Jimmies-and-Joes world.  The 2018 NFL draft doesn’t change that.

In all, though, Georgia is and should be the heavy favorite in the division because it’s way out in front in the talent department and showed itself to be well-coached enough on its trip to the national title game a year ago. Mullen just signed Florida’s best class by average recruit rank since 2013, but it’s going to take multiple years of doing even better than that to catch up.


Filed under Georgia Football, Phil Steele Makes My Eyes Water

17 responses to “Your daily dose of Steele, and more

  1. I hope we enjoy a lot of Gator tears over the next few years as Kirby continues to separate Georgia from the SEC East pack.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. The other Doug

    “Mullen just signed Florida’s best class by average recruit rank since 2013, but it’s going to take multiple years of doing even better than that to catch up.”

    In order to catch up Mullen has to out recruit the rest of the East. It’s early, but his first full class is ranked 35th and is full of 3 stars.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. ASEF

    Kirby owned Mullen’s offense at MSU, even in the Dak years. Write that off to talent differential if you wish – the kids Kirby gets for his front 7 and the way he uses them just blows up what Mullen is trying to do with his offense. Am I right that the last time Mullen was on a winning sideline and Smart was on the losing side was 2008? Have any of those games even been really close? I wonder how Florida talked themselves through that one.


    • ASEF

      Ouch. Had to look

      32-13 (Tebow, senior)
      20-7 (Prescott)
      25-20 (Prescott)
      31-6 (Prescott)

      80 points in 8 games. 39 in the three years featuring a fully operational Tebow/Prescott.

      So, 10 on average, kick it to 13 when Mullen has an answer at QB. Wow.


  4. 3rdandGrantham

    Posts like this put a smile on my face and a song on my lips, and this is percisely why I’ve been calling UT fans delusional for thinking they will be competing with us by Pruitt’s second year. As noted they have a huge talent gap to overcome that continues to widen, and best of luck to any coach in overcoming that.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Russ

    I just scanned the start of the article, saw “more points” and thought we were in for a Mr. CFB moment. “Analysis has shown that schools that score more points this season than the last are 80% more likely to finish with a winning record.”


  6. Brandon

    To me, these numbers indicate that while our talent advantage is undeniably present, the size of that advantage is perhaps a bit overstated, as to this coming season since roughly half of our top rated players are freshmen. Sure, freshmen can stand out big time, but they are not known commodities. For every Jake Fromm, there are two Isiah Wilson’s who just aren’t ready yet. If the recruiting trends continue our talent advantage should be much more pronounced. This is why I worry more at this point about our trips to the Columbia’s early on more than LSU and Florida, because right now we really don’t know what we have on defense. If the inarguably talented but unproven players we are going to be relying on to fill some gaps in the defense come through and play well enough to win those early road tests, then I think we get to Auburn unbeaten, and I think Coach O will be fired by Christmas.


    • 3rdandGrantham

      Absolutely, and this is why I think we should be on full upset alert week 2. SCU has tons of upper classman as starters while we field a much younger roster. Make no mistake, that game will be a war.


    • I knew Andrew Thomas would be a starter before he walked on campus and many thought, “OMG, we’re going to have a true freshman at right tackle.”

      I’m not worried about Wilson given some of the talk from the end of last year and in the spring.


  7. dawgfan

    An analysis of how this talent is spread over classes by team would be interesting too.


  8. W Cobb Dawg

    As awesome as our recruiting class was, I don’t expect any of them to start on day 1 – including all those 5-star studs. Maybe Camarda at punter. Every recruit of the best class we ever had has to win a job over some pretty good returning players. Let that sink in a minute. I think that’s the real measure of how talented this team is.


  9. Hogbody Spradlin

    Not a big drop off between the 24 and 31 point increment. Possible rationale: if you’ve got enough talent that the pros want 31 points worth, you’ve got enough left to keep up the record?


  10. OurADisAGlorifiedBoatAnchor

    The stat is only meaningful predictor for teams with ~8 or 9 wins.

    If you win 12+ games in a season there’s probably an 80% chance that you will win fewer the next year regardless of how many players you have drafted.

    How many teams have won 12 and then won 13 the next year? Ever. There’s no place to go but down.


    • OurADisAGlorifiedBoatAnchor

      Should read only a meaningful predictor for teams with 5-9 wins. If you win more than 9 or less than 5, there’s so much better or worse you can get.


    • Biggus Rickus

      OSU went from 12 to 14 between 2013 and 2014. Alabama went from 12 to 14 between 2014 and 2015. In he same spirit, Oregon went from 11 to 13 between 2013 and 2014. And adjusting for fewer games played, FSU went from 11 to 12 between 1992 and 1993 and again between 1998 and 1999. Tennessee went from 11 to 13 between 1997 and 1998. Miami went from 11 to 12 between 1986 and 1987 I’m sure there are others, and with the exception of Tennessee the ones I just looked up were part of a sustained run of success that Georgia’s never managed. The hope is that Kirby can do just that.