It’s not his power poll(s). It’s his stab at the reality of college football rankings.
“My preseason rankings are not my power rankings,” Steele writes. “These rankings take into account the totality of the circumstances that I feel each team will face in the 2018 season — schedule strength, foes’ schedules (coming off byes), experience edges at the start of the year and so forth.
“My Top 40 is where I project teams to finish in the final rankings and have always done quite well. These rankings reflect not only talent, but the strength of schedule and how each team should finish the season. Over the past five years, 244 of the 274 teams that I have listed in my top rankings have made it to bowl eligibility and that is a solid 89 percent.”
Okay, now that we’ve got that settled, here’s how they look:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Washington
5. Georgia
6. Wisconsin
7. Miami
8. Notre Dame
9. Oklahoma
10. Texas
11. Michigan
12. Penn State
13. Michigan State
14. Boise State
15. Stanford
16. USC
17. Florida
18. Florida State
19. Auburn
20. TCU
21. Mississippi State
22. Utah
23. Boston College
24. Oregon
25. Arkansas State
Yeah, while the top five seem pretty standard, there are a few eyebrow raisers farther on down the list, starting with Texas popping in at number ten. And how about Florida being ranked ahead of Auburn? Not to mention Arkansas State being ranked ahead of nine SEC teams? Ouchy ouch.
Get The Picture 
I’m a believer in Texas, too, and think they have a great shot at winning the Big 12. They nearly took down Oklahoma last year and were a play or two away from dropping USC. Herman is going to win there, it’s just a matter of time.
The Florida/Auburn situation is a reflection of schedule and the importance of conference divisions. Florida’s road is going to be easier than Auburn’s this year and the final rankings may bear that out. Same goes for the Big10 east schools. Michigan State, Penn State, and Michigan should all be top 10 and with a break or two knocking on the door of top 5.
As for Arkansas State. I was reading my mag last night and he really believes in their offense and quarterback. I believe he was an Oklahoma transfer.
Loving the slow drip, drip, drip of Steele thoughts, btw.
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I agree with you and Steele about Texas. I think they get a similar “2nd year effect” like we did. I don’t expect them in the playoffs, but I can see them in the top 10 for sure. I can also see them beating OU. Nearly had it last year except for one busted play.
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I’m a Udub fan due to extended family who are alums, but they are vastly overrated at the #4 spot, and they would get absolutely exposed if they made it to the playoffs and faced one of the other top rated teams, including us. They finished the year with a loss at #16, yet somehow they jumped 11 spots to their preseason ranking in the top 5.
They have top coaching but not the talent to compete at the highest level. I’d guess they only have 10-15 four star guys on their entire roster.
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I live in WA State 6 months out of every year and I agree entirely with your post.
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We will have to see how that turns out. Go Huskies. of course we know they are no where nearly as great and in mean great as all SEC teams, Hell they would finish 20th in the SEC and we know that . Right. I mean they would be expose hear me exposed.
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West Virginia’s absence is notable.
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Agree, they are a trendy pick to contend for the Big 12, widely varying opinions on the Moutaineers. I think Steele whiffed on this one, WVA should finish in the Top 25 unless they get hit by major injuries. Usually it is the defense that lets them down, maybe it happens again, haven’t looked closely enough. I do think they lay a whipping on the Big Orange in the opener
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I hate predictive rankings. The point of ranking teams is to place them in order from best to worst. That in and of itself is difficult. Adding to that mix your predictions of how an entire season will play out and re-ranking the teams on those expectations is foolish.
One of the arguments in 2004 was that OK and USC has been 1 & 2 all season so they get to play for the natty.
One way to look at that is to say: we said those were the best teams and they’ve done nothing to change our minds.
Another is: dammit we predicted those teams would play for it all and if we have to choose between patting ourselves on the back for being right all along and picking the best 2 teams, well that’s easy!
In short, Washington should be ahead of Georgia ONLY if you think they’d beat us on the field and NOT because you think we’re losing the SECCG.
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Steele has a clever way of putting out numerous rankings so he can always point to one of them and say he was right. He throws a lot of shit at the wall.
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Was reading yesterday – however, Dawgs are #4 in his power poll. Washington’s entire season boils down to week 1 v. Auburn. Win and likely can run the table. Lose and the class of the Pac 12 is likely no better than #3 – #5 SEC.
More shocking – 7 of top 12 POWER are Big 10/Notre Dame…..
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If Washington, with Jacob Eason at the helm, finishes ahead of Georgia it will be, shall we say interesting, to hear folks opinions on that situation.
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Will be tough for Eason to have much impact this season since he will have to sit out the year but carry on.
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he meant “at the helm of the scout team.” Or maybe “at the helm of the team bus.” Leadership!
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I meant ever. I should have said if Washington ever finishes ahead of Georgia with Eason at the helm.
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If Miami ever……………………
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Yeah, there’s a longer life span on that one. Eason only has a couple of years of eligibility left. Richt, on the other hand, well he could be around for a while.
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IMO, this season is Richt’s best chance to do anything, he still has some leftover talent, especially offensive linemen, from the previous coach and he has the new hire excitement going for another season. He did a classic “if only” season for the U fans last season so they have swallowed the hook deep with him. After this season, Miami will have to rely on Richt’s recruiting classes and we know how that works out. Every season there will be huge holes in the roster that will be fixed the following season only to reveal other holes at different positions.
I don’t worry about Eason at all. If Washington finishes ahead of Georgia in the next three seasons it won’t be because of Eason.
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No Central Florida? I demand Steele reconsider his entire philosophy!
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Sunbelt Funbelt
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Am I reading this right, Boston College?
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No Hokies????
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How is this impressive?
“Over the past five years, 244 of the 274 teams that I have listed in my top rankings have made it to bowl eligibility and that is a solid 89 percent.”
There are about 80 bowl eligible teams every year. Your predictions would have to be utterly terrible to not hit on 50 of them.
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No South Carolina? I guess after they beat us on Sept. 8 they will make it into the top 10.
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I will believe something about Michigan when they beat a team with a WINNING record. I see them with another 4-5 losses again this year.
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They were on the brink of the playoff just two years ago with wins over the two teams that played for the conference title, and they kind of got screwed against Ohio State. Harbaugh is an overhyped asshole, but it’s not like Michigan has horribly underachieved in his three years.
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In two years….maybe we’ll see UGA, UM, Washington as three of the playoff teams. That would be great…#4 could be ND or TX… Regardless, UGA is going to be a beast of a program.
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Harbaugh won with the former coaches players. I HATE the Suckeyes and hoped he would whip them and slap Urban Meyer after the game. I think he has way underachieved except for the off season travel program.
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