Sure, Mickey, there may be 14 teams with a chance to make the CFP, but that’s not what the betting public believes.
The top-ranked Crimson Tide enter the season as the consensus favorites for a third consecutive year. Alabama is +175 to win the national championship at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas. According to Sportsoddshistory.com, those are the best odds for a preseason favorite since USC was listed at +160 before the the 2005 season.
Alabama has won two of the past three national championships and has been favored in 110 of its past 111 games.
Yeah, Clemson’s getting its share of early love.
No. 2 Clemson, at 4-1, is the clear-cut second favorite and has attracted significant interest from bettors in Las Vegas and New Jersey. More money has been bet on the Tigers to win the national title than has been wagered on any other team, including Alabama, at several sportsbooks.
At William Hill’s books in Nevada and New Jersey, 22 percent of the money bet on the national championship odds is on Clemson, substantially more than how much has been wagered on Alabama (14 percent) and three times more than has been bet on any other team.
More than half of the money bet on the national championship odds at DraftKings’ new sportsbook in New Jersey is on the Tigers and Tide, with 30 percent of it on Clemson, the company said.
Just think what one regular season upset would do for the talking heads at the WWL.
9 responses to “ESPN’s biggest wish for the 2018 season”
If you combine the odds of Alabama and Clemson both making the CFP, you end up somewhere in the neighborhood of 1 in 3. Most of that is on Georgia – if you flip Clemson’s and Alabama’s conference path, the odds for Clemson would go way down and ‘Bama’s way up.
But it’s weird to see such a massive consensus building around those two when OSU and Georgia will both field their most talented teams (as measured by recruiting/blue chips) possibly ever. And the list of programs that will field teams operating at or near their program peak doesn’t stop there.
To me, the most interesting story in CFB this year is two guys, Smart and Saban, who like to win with defense and risk-averse offenses, will field teams whose offenses would seem to have much higher ceilings than their defenses. But I would pick the winner of that death match over Clemson, which has an exceptional position group and a lot of questions on offense.
Not so weird when you consider logic isn’t what drives 100% of the betting mind. Superstitions, past history, fan loyalty/bias, riding the hot hand, etc. moves money towards the more familiar, read safer, teams that you have won on in the past. That money is how the odds are established, and adjusted; not the balanced analysis you may think. Just watch the odds drop quickly on teams when 3-4 come out of the gate smoking hot and begin to get notice from ESPN’s talking heads. Has nothing to do with the factors of what comprises their team’s makeup, same talent and schedule that made them a 50-1 long shot this week, but they will fall to 10-1, or less, very quickly. It is a herd mentality and both bettor irrationality and ESPN plays stronger roles than logic.
Absolutely. Figure out where the herd is going to go next and bet accordingly to find value.
Kinda like the stock market
Is Bama’s lone underdog appearance the 2015 rain game in Athens? For some reason I think we were favored that day.
Yeah, that stood out like a sore thumb.
Top LV handicappers are actually down on Alabama expecting coaching turnover, depleted secondary and QB chaos to yield 2-3 regular season losses. Chinks in the armour….especially early on.
Note: USC lost in 05