Let’s round up the usual suspects.
- Massey-Peabody still shows Georgia squarely in the middle of the five-team group sporting the best odds of making the CFP.
- Georgia remains third in ESPN’s FPI. LSU remains the only opponent left on the schedule with better than a 20% chance of beating the Dawgs.
- Fueled by its offensive efficiency, Georgia is first in Brian Fremeau’s FEI ratings.
- Bill Connelly’s S&P+ ratings have Georgia fourth, with close to a 60% chance of suffering no more than one regular season loss.
The fan base (or at least a visible part of it) has been more freaked out over the Missouri game than the computers are. In fact, if you’re looking for something really interesting about Georgia’s first four games, check out Bill’s percentile performances (figures in parentheses are offense, defense):
- Austin Peay: 89% (84%, 94%)
- South Carolina: 88% (87%, 78%)
- Middle Tennessee: 73% (82%, 69%)
- Missouri: 81% (35%, 37%)
In short, notwithstanding a 4-0 start and a +125 points differential, Georgia still hasn’t played a game in which it’s been hitting on all cylinders. (By comparison, the 2017 team played nine games that finished with a performance percentile in the nineties.) Kinda scary, isn’t it?
Get The Picture 
There is still something not right with this team from a discipline and leadership perspective. Computers look at stats only, not body language and intangibles such as hot-dogging it on the field and who is making our tackles.
Not into dawgrading, but none of our opponents are ranked. Our DBs have to make too many tackles. We have good speed on defense, but we give up too many yards between the hashes. We are not as deep as we thought we were in the running game.
Our schedule helps us and I am not predicting doom and gloom, but we are not passing the eye test right now as a top five team.
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Who is?
Ohio State led by 5 entering the 4th quarter against a team that Texas handled pretty easily. Penn State went to OT against App State. Yes, they dropped 63 on opponents their last two games, but they felt a need to pile 8 touchdowns on top of those opponents when leading by more than two scores in the second half. Clemson almost found a way to lose to Texas AM and required two late officiating gifts from the ACC crew.
This is the point in the season where every fan sees in great detail his own team’s warts and admires from a distance other teams’ strengths.
Advanced stats is just reminding us that Georgia is still really good in spite of those issues, not that those issues don’t matter.
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Good post. I’m going to have lunch today with my friend who’s a big OU fan. I think if I start hand-wringing about UGA’s problems, he’s going to laugh me out of the building. (See: OU 28, Army 21, OT)
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your “eye test”
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In a way, I’m glad for that. It adds a bit of validation to the fact that you’ve never just ‘arrived.’
We absolutely cruised through the first 3 games (including a ‘real’ game at uSCjr). I think the Mizzou game was just what we needed; a reminder that you’ve got to be on your game and ready to go every single week.
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They’re young and sometimes inconsistent, and the middle linebackers need to improve. That’s pretty much all of the “something(s) not right with this team”.
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Thjis is of course ridiculous, solely because I can almost guarantee that you haven’t done the same deep dive analysis of other teams to determine who passes your completely subjective “eye test” sufficiently enough to supplant UGA in the Top 5.
On one hand, we have actual scientific analysis, and then on the other hand, we have your “eye test.”
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Ironic considering the research for your book, Dudley’s World.
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My goodness. How interesting. How bizarre.
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youth….we get better. Still peaking, Bama may have already peaked.
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Doom despair and agony on me…
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UGA is going to be just fine. A lot of nervous nellies out there.
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Much of the fan base is not looking for just fine and that is a good thing. I am not nervous of the team descending to the Richt years. UGA also has many fans which are not concerned as their expectations have not reached what the program is capable of. The team is capable of carrying a perfect record into the SECCG. The question is will it?
The thing great coaches especially Saban does so well, and he has had a decade to perfect this is, getting the team to play at that high level week in week out. I don’t expect Smart to have perfected this yet but UGA is getting there. Saban had some Bama teams which did not fulfill their potential. It happens, and yes there is a fine line between reasonable and unreasonable.
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It’s damn hard to go undefeated in the SEC…
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Agreed but UGA has a favorable schedule to do it. Auburn does not have the RBs they had last year. LSU is the concern any other loss would very much be UGA not playing to the level they are capable or attrition from injuries. At minimum UGA should enter the SECCG with 1 loss. It isn’t unreasonable to ask why the team looked so sloppy but that does not mean a fan is concerned about the program sliding to past levels.
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Guilty of being a nervous nellie.
But even my usually miserable IM (Inner Munson) is telling me not to sweat this week..
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I note that the difference between Tech and UMass is not large.
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Teams can run the ball on the defense on running down. Which means a team like Tennessee that can’t do anything well on offense might be content to just keep running it.
Of everything I’ve seen this year, the run defense is far and away the most troubling.
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This is not totally a bad thing. UT runs the ball to eat up clock and keep the score down while their D can’t stop UGA. UGA needs to practice stopping the run and they provide the OL to take the snaps. I’ll be happy with a W and not covering the full 31 especially if the team comes out healthy.
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Theoretically, I agree. But 2014 Florida comes to mind.
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I am not as concerned about declining to the Richt years and I believe this UT squad is worse than the ’14 UF team.
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Just in case. I got a room in Santa Clara yesterday…
Don’t call me a naysayer!
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Considering the massive level of substituting we do on both sides of the ball and the fact the team is sooo young, the performance percentile is impressive. I can understand getting everyone in the blowout games. But with mizzou we were still using 7 WRs, 4 RBs, etc. I wonder if that substitution policy is slightly overdoing it, and whether it keeps us from getting into a better rythym.
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Have wondered the same (better rhythm)….good point.
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Everybody talks about Nick Saban and they should. But keep in mind he has only had 1 undefeated season at Alabama. So his team doesn’t always play up to par every weak as I guess no team does. Let’s just be thankful that we still win by 2 touchdowns on our bad week as compared to the past when we would lose those games before getting it turned around.
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week. sorry
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How does 30s percentile on offense and defense separately add up to 81st percentile overall?
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Yeah, what I learned from this is that I don’t understand these advanced stats. And I made (easy) A’s in statistics. I’m guessing Special Teams graded out at 178% to balance it out.
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Saw that, thought it was New Math and didn’t won’t to show my age.
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This is a young team and we knew the DL was a concern coming into the season. I see cause for concern after watching us get gashed by two unranked teams. Hopefully, CKS works his magic and we do much better against UT. I think many of us are eyetesting ourselves against Alabama every week and that’s just not a fair comparison for any college football team right now.
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Was William Poole missing Saturday? I don’t recall seeing him in the game on defense.
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I saw a few brief glimpses of #31, but could not say exactly when.
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I felt like he had been playing well so I didn’t know if he got injured or something.
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I’ve heard some kind of flu-like bug was going around the team. Maybe he was one of the players affected?
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