Your weekly advanced stats roundup

Not much has changed.

  • Georgia is third in Bill Connelly’s S&P+ rankings and fourth in his Resumé S&P+ rankings.  (Given that the schedule toughens noticeably from here on out, assuming the Dawgs can keep pace, expect the latter to rise.)
  • The Dawgs are also third in ESPN’s FPI rankings.  (Again, notice how that remaining SOS number jumps out from the surroundings.)  The closest remaining game projected on the schedule is this week’s.
  • Georgia still remains on top of Brian Fremeau’s FEI ratings, a reflection of the team’s efficiencies on offense and defense.
  • Bill Connelly’s advanced stats profile of Georgia indicates the same thing.  Note that Georgia is ranked highly in a number of offensive efficiency metrics and the defense is doing similar work with regard to limiting explosive plays.
  • One other similarity worth mentioning is that Georgia is doing all this despite mediocre net field position; Fremeau’s ranking of that is 71st, while Bill’s is 89th.

All in all, an impressive picture to this point.

There is one fly in the ointment, though.

The Tide, especially on offense, is on another planet.

One thing to point to again, notice the drop between the teams at the top of average field position in that chart and the Dawgs.  It’s significant.  I expect some of it — maybe a lot of it — is due to poor blocking on punt returns.  It’s almost criminal how they’re wasting opportunities for Hardman to do some serious damage there.

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15 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

15 responses to “Your weekly advanced stats roundup

  1. Biggus Rickus

    The stats back up what we’ve seen so far, an extremely good secondary and a so-so front seven. As long as the defense can continue to only bend, they should be fine. I don’t think LSU, Florida, Kentucky and Auburn can consistently string together enough plays to finish drives.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. W Cobb Dawg

    Expect that field position number to improve as true freshman Camarda continues to get experience and starts dropping more kicks in the red zone. And Crumpton letting the ball land in front of him and roll down field multiple times also skews the field position number. Fountain’s working on it. Those numbers will improve considerably before the end of the season.

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    • Macallanlover

      Would help if Camarda didn’t seem to have one kick per game where the ball comes off the side of his foot. Also, we have let a few drives get extended by sloppy run defense, and dumb penalties.

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      • ChiliDawg

        Some of those “dumb penalties” have been dumb on the part of the officials. It’s hard for me to get mad at our guy for drawing a “late hit” when there was no late hit.

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        • Macallanlover

          Not those I am concerned about, cannot control that. It is when we feel we have to retaliate to someone giving a push, or talking trash, or feeling we have to make contact late just because they ran so far and arrived a little late. Those are discipline penalties.

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  3. Bright Idea

    Field position problems are because defense is bending and we’ve let too many punts hit the ground and roll.

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  4. ASEF

    Interesting to see the gold standards for defense struggling in inverse ways – Alabama is giving up tons of explosive plays, and Georgia is allowing opponents to stay on schedule. Weird.

    Field position and issues with defensive efficiency play into what LSU likes to do. Hopefully Fromm in on point with those boundary throws.

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  5. Sanford222view

    Like several others have mentioned, I think the seemingly high frequency of punts that have been allowed to hit and roll have impacted the field position numbers as well.

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  6. Bob

    Field position also hasn’t been helped by the seemingly endless number of dumb penalties. Also, anyone think losing Shane Beamer might have had some impact on special teams?

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  7. ChiliDawg

    Our defensive numbers (if I’m reading that right) are better than Alabama’s. Yeah, the differentials between offensive and defensive numbers favor the Tide, but IMO what I’ve seen of Alabama games they’re airing it out and running up the score at times when Georgia would have been committing to running the ball. Idk if part of that is trying to let Jalen Hurts still feel important. But I do think the offensive numbers for Alabama are a bit… inflated… in a Big 12 sense of the word.

    Liked by 1 person

    • ASEF

      Alabama has 32 offensive TDs in the first half, 8 in the second. 2 in the fourth quarter. They’ve run it on 62% of their snaps this year.

      Georgia has 16 offensive first half TDs and 13 second half, 3 in the fourth quarter. Georgia’s run it on 62% of its snaps this year.

      Alabama has exactly 5 more pass attempts on the season than Georgia.

      Alabama’s just starting every game insanely fast, which makes it difficult to assess what the rest of the game means. But they’re definitely not running it up. Basically their first string offense gets a half of work and then shuts it down.

      I agree that the two teams are probably more even than the numbers indicate, though.

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      • ChiliDawg

        And yet, interestingly enough, if you compare numbers, Georgia has been better at running the ball than Alabama, averaging 6.03 YPC, good for 245 yds/game, tops in the SEC, while Alabama’s 5.44 YPC ranks 4th at 222 yds/game.

        The big disparity seems to be in YPA in the passing game, and I don’t know whether it’s because they’re just completing more deep passes or because their receivers are getting more yards after the catch, though I suspect it’s the latter.

        Idk. I just don’t feel the disparity between offenses is as great as it’s made out to be.

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        • ASEF

          This is where the fast starts warp everything else. Bama has a lot of running plays in the second half that are straight into numbers between the tackles. I’d swear Saban by mid-3rd quarter is working on his punting and defensive backups to the point he’s killing the offensive play-calling.

          They have real issues. Their receivers have put the the ball on the ground a lot. Their new punter is not ready for prime time. They still can’t kick FGs. Their linebackers routinely blow coverages in the middle of the field. Their secondary is so completely new that they aren’t focusing much on run support yet. And injuries are leaching their defensive 2 deep.

          Georgia would be able to run the ball on Bama, and Georgia’s DBs could force fumbles. Chaney/Fromm would eat their LBs up with the short passing game. All of which opens up play action and maybe tilts total possessions.

          I think it would be a tight game down to the wire right now.

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  8. Got Cowdog

    Meh. I’ll wait until I see how they both do against LSU and Auburn. Neither team has really been challenged for four quarters this season. Gut feel says Bama has the edge.

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