They’re back, baby.

Even if you’re not a fan of advanced stats, you have to admit Bill Connelly’s got Georgia sussed when he writes this:

It has felt inevitable in recent weeks, but the “Alabama and Clemson separate themselves from everyone else” narrative that is quickly defining the 2018 season is a pretty new thing. Among other things, Georgia was part of that dominant class until about a month ago.

Kirby Smart’s Dawgs fell from third to sixth in S&P+ following their 36-16 loss at LSU on October 13 — not a horrible drop, but enough to fall behind not only Bama and rising Clemson, but also Oklahoma and Michigan.

Since the LSU loss, however, they’ve beaten Florida (currently 22nd in S&P+) by 17, Kentucky (top-30 at the time) by 17, and now Auburn (currently 20th) by 17. They are keeping strong teams at arm’s length, and they have been rewarded by a return to No. 3 in this week’s rankings.

The Dawgs’ run game is brilliant (outside of the red zone, at least), and while the defense is a little less efficient than it was last year, no one makes big plays on the Dawgs.  [Emphasis added.]

For once, you don’t have to make a choice between stats and your lying eyes.

Georgia is back to third in Bill’s S&P+, erasing the drop it suffered after the LSU loss.

22 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

22 responses to “They’re back, baby.

  1. Mayor

    The rankings don’t matter in Georgia’s case. Beat Bama and we’re SEC Champions and in the playoff. Lose to Bama and……..

    Liked by 2 people

    • Wasn’t posting that as playoff commentary, but just to show that Georgia appears to regained the footing it had before Baton Rouge.

      Liked by 2 people

      • Mayor

        The LSU game was an anomaly IMHO caused by the fake FG attempt and a series of incredibly bad coaching decisions after that which minimized the Dawgs score and maximized LSU’s score. No way LSU has personnel as good as the Dawgs’ personnel. That loss was on the coaches not the players and I’m afraid it may end up ruining the Georgia season–at least possibly keep us out of the 4 team playoff.

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        • Macallanlover

          It is always on both the players and coaches, Mayor. The degree may vary but it happens, best teams don’t win all the time. We could see that one coming at us all year, it just got more likely with the way we were playing. and the hype around LSU after the way they started the season. Doesn’t have one thing to do with us getting in the playoff, win out and we are in, lose and we are out. As it should be, imo. We control our own destiny, and have a shot at winning the SEC; can’t ask for anything more at this point in the season. The good news is, despite our defensive woes, the offense seems to be finding themselves. We gotta shot.

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          • Mayor

            I generally agree with your post MAC (the players and coaches together make up the team) except for one thing about the LSU game: If the Dawgs had won that game and gone into the SECCG against Bama and lost, Georgia might still have made the playoff as the best one loss team in America (like Bama did last year) and still had the possibility of redemption against Bama in the playoff. Now, we have to beat Bama in the SECCG to get in. That’s what we lost by losing the LSU game.

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  2. Tony Barnfart

    I say “whatever” on the Bama game. Let the chips fall where they may. If they can dominate our 4-5 stars with their 4-5 stars and a QB with a progressively worsening knee situation, then more power to them.

    But they still gotta go do it. D’Andre Swift and Elijah Holyfield ain’t gonna slide or take a knee.

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    • Greg

      Concur…..our 4 & 5 stars are young, but getting better as the season progresses. Thinks our OL gets healthy by then too….& who knows, we may get back Marshall & Muckle by then. We also have a QB that’s starting to hit on all cylinders. Good running game & QB play (recievers also) =’s limiting their O’ and scoring opportunities. The team has grit/resolve, I certainly like our chances better than 4-5 weeks ago.

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  3. Greg

    Repeating myself (yesterday), but WTF….also 3rd in FPI. Again, thinks we are better than Clemson (2nd). As far as Bama goes “any given Saturday”, better than a “puncher’s chance” imo.

    Liked by 1 person

    • For Georgia to have more than a puncher’s chance, you’re gonna have to convince me the Dawgs can get a consistent pass rush on Tua without having to compromise their back end pass coverage. Right now, I don’t see it.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Angry American

        Senator-

        Just want to say thanks for all you do. You and this blog make football season better.

        Liked by 1 person

      • Greg

        See above ……not trying to convince you. Just thinks we have a chance in every game we play. IZ right more than I am wrong. To not have more than a “puncher’s chance”, is stretching it.

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      • Clayton Davis

        Worth noting that the Bama defense is still not as scary as their normal standard. They still haven’t faced a very strong offense. By average points per play, Georgia will be by far the most explosive offense they face before the playoffs; the next closest is Ole Miss.

        The difference between Georgia and Ole Miss’ average points per play is as wide as the difference between Ole Miss’ and… Auburn’s. Alas, the gap between Georgia’s points per play average and Bama’s is even wider.

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        • gastr1

          The thing that makes me buy your argument is that we really did run over Auburn and they really do have a good defense. From start to finish we moved the ball pretty much at will. It’s encouraging. It will be telling to see what the Tide do against them.

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  4. stoopnagle

    Just listing these for reference, common oppos for Bama and Georgia:

    Auburn: UGA 27-10 H; Bama TBD H
    Tennessee: UGA 38-12 H; Bama 58-21 A
    LSU: UGA 16-36 A; Bama 29-0 A
    Mizzou: UGA 43-29 A; Bama 39-10 H

    That stupid LSU game…

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    • cali_dawg

      Seriously, and they have played very uninspired football ever since. I’m convinced we would trounce them in a rematch. Sigh…

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      • Mayor

        Absolutely!!

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        • Down island way

          The skid marks we leave are those in aubern 2017 and lsu 2018…..WLOCP and SECCG are there for potential 50-50 split, fan wise…….we still need to grow into those environments (staff wise/player wise) what we are seeing now stat wise was true in Sept. (no evidence) and in November(evidence), we’re the same team, this is who we are…..slightly better now but the same team…..GO DAWGS!

          Like