This is an excellent summary of a point I’ve been trying to make this week.
@CFBPlayoff thoughts: I like the 4 team field. It should be difficult to get in. It will never equal. Conference strength cycles up and down. The conf champ games are far from the same level of tests. The SEC benefits during the season w/the respect they’ve earned in rankings.
The price for that is the SEC teams might be playing a de facto quarterfinal while other contenders just have to avoid face planting. Nothing wrong with that. Last week Mich/Ohio St played an elimination game while the SEC contenders faced non-contending rivals.
This weekend is fun. It’s important because they give a trophy. But it’s not well set up in terms of being a “play-in” for the @CFBPlayoff . Inherently unequal divisions in conferences make it impossible to do so. When we stumble into one like in the SEC, might as well enjoy it!
College football’s postseason is a Rube Goldbergian contraption that’s been assembled from dissimilar parts over the years because the sport has never been controlled by a central entity. Bowls came into play to serve the conferences and independents. The sport’s appeal was strongly regional.
Evolution has taken place as national forces (hi, Mickey!) have placed pressure on the system to accommodate them, which is how we’ve slowly gotten a playoff arrangement to supersede the polls that awarded championships after the bowl games. However, the conferences are still powerful enough to insist on conference championship games and control the structure of the CFP.
The common thread throughout this isn’t a search for greatness, but a quest for dollars. That’s why the conferences tolerate the rickety structure. Expansion will come if some or all of the P5 members feel the cash flow is being threatened because of the contradictions in the system, not because of any uneven quality to the teams that make the semi-finals.
It’s not a perfect system because that’s inherent in the design when you have five peer conferences, plus Notre Dame, ruling the roost. Expansion to eight in and of itself won’t change the underlying flaws; in fact, there’s a strong likelihood those will only be exacerbated with a larger field.
The CFP is an unstable entity. That’s why I’d rather stay at four, because, warts and all, at least there’s a stronger likelihood that we’re seeing something close to the best teams in the country playing for the national title.
If you’re looking for signs of optimism for Georgia’s chances in the SECCG, this piece, by a sports handicapper who writes for al.com, has some good analysis. A few examples:
Alabama’s defense has a propensity to allow explosive plays against the run this season. Sometimes linebacker Mack Wilson will get out of position, or the safeties will take bad angles.
And forget the narrative that the problem is fixed. The Citadel’s Dante Smith authored touchdown runs of 45 and 44 yards two weeks ago, and Auburn’s Shaun Shivers broke a 75-yard touchdown run negated by a holding call that nonetheless featured some of those bad tackling angles.
Mississippi State, for example, disrupted Alabama’s offense in the second half by constantly hitting Tua Tagovailoa.
At first glance, Georgia does not seem built to take advantage of that potential disruption. The Bulldogs rank 99th in the country in sacks, and D’Andre Walker is the only player with more than 1.5.
But Kirby Smart and his defense have started to get increasing pressure on opposing quarterbacks in the last month. The staff also is smart enough to weigh risk/reward and send timely blitzes.
According to S&P+, Georgia’s defense is No. 2 in the country in marginal passing explosiveness. The Bulldogs arguably are the best in the country at preventing explosive passing plays.
Tagovailoa has been otherworldly at almost everything this season. But he’s merely one of the best in the country on intermediate throws. It hardly qualifies as a weakness, but he’s a less lethal version of himself on those.
Deandre Baker is perhaps the best cover corner in the country this year for Georgia. Alabama’s receivers are terrifying, but according to advanced stats, this secondary is significantly better than LSU’s this season.
Like I’ve said, Georgia isn’t chopped liver. Alabama is certainly formidable, but there are areas the Dawgs can exploit. The question is whether they can do so enough. After all, this guy concludes with, “As I said to start this post, Alabama is a better team. The Tide are likely to win, and may even win big.”
Good article here on Pro Football Focus’ season grades for the Alabama-Georgia matchups. While I think you’d have to say that overall ‘Bama has an advantage, for the most part, things aren’t that lopsided. There are certainly areas that Georgia has the opportunity to exploit.
But there is one matchup that freaks the hell out of me.
Now, Quinnen Williams is as unblockable of a defensive tackle as you may ever see in an Alabama uniform. He has 23 run stuffs this season, and is just 4.5 tackles behind Dylan Moses for the team lead, an incredible accomplishment for a player at his position.
Georgia is going to have to be creative with its run blocking if it hopes to have any success running the ball between the tackles (although I have to admit there’s a part of me that says, why bother).
And that’s just running plays. Here’s the rest of Williams’ resume.
The match-up to watch here is Georgia senior offensive center Lamont Gaillard against Alabama nose tackle Quinnen Williams. Gaillard has allowed five quarterback pressures and one sack in 282 pass blocking chances. Williams, on the other hand, has 38 quarterback pressures and eight sacks. For the Bulldogs to have success here, Gaillard is going to have to play the game of his life.
For a nose tackle to have those kind of numbers is insane. As disruptive as DaRon Payne was in the national title game, you can make a good argument without too much effort that Williams is going to be an even bigger challenge Saturday. Gulp.
No question that, in my very humble opinion, Tua Tagvailoa has been the best quarterback in college football this year. That’s not meant as a knock on Kyler Murray, who’s been phenomenal as well, but the way Tua has elevated Alabama’s offense is what separates him from the pack in my mind.
So while I’m not putting Jake Fromm in the same class, it’s also not as if Georgia’s giving up that much ground with Fromm, as this comparison shows.
Check out how Jake Fromm and Tua Tagovailoa stack up in some key categories heading into Saturday's SEC Championship Game..
College GameDay analyst Kirk Herbstreit believes Georgia — win or lose — could do enough in the SEC Championship Game against Alabama to impress the College Football Playoff selection committee ahead of this weekend’s final vote.
If all else goes according to plan elsewhere in the Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 title games, that would mean the Bulldogs could get in the final four over Ohio State and Oklahoma even if the top-ranked Crimson Tide win the SEC. They shouldn’t be penalized, Herbstreit says, for going toe-to-toe with the nation’s juggernaut.
“It’s subjective analysis, but you could make a case for it,” Herbstreit said during Tuesday’s appearance on Get Up!. “I think the way the (SEC Championship Game) plays out will go a long way in the argument post-game discussion into Sunday morning. If it’s a game like they had last year in the national championship and Georgia loses a close one like that, even with two losses, I personally think Georgia would have the very strong case (for the Playoff.).
“Their punishment for an 11-1 year will be to go playing Alabama. Ohio State? They get to play Northwestern. Oklahoma plays Texas. It’s a little bit different what Georgia has to go though and I think we need to take that into consideration at the end of the day. I’m not caught up in the ‘two losses, they’re automatically eliminated’ (stuff). If they play their tails off and lose a close one, I think they’ll have a case to be made.”
If Georgia loses Saturday and either Ohio State or Oklahoma wins, I don’t see any way in hell the selection committee leaves the Dawgs in the top four. When Herbie has a more optimistic stance on Georgia’s playoff chances than I do, it’s time to wonder if he’s been replaced by a pod person.
If he really sticks with this argument after the championship games are played, I may have to amend the Lexicon. Don’t make me go there, Kirk.
If you haven’t subscribed to The Athletic, it’s a shame, because Seth Emerson’s story about Malkom Parrish, post-national title game ($$) is a must read. Parrish has basically withdrawn from the public — I didn’t even realize he was still in school until Seth mentioned it — remains haunted by the final play of the game and apparently is disappointed by the reaction from others that has persisted.
From his former high school coach:
“He feels bad that a lot of people turned and said some ugly things about him. He felt like he gave Georgia everything he had. He felt like a lot of people turned on him at the end. But he was grateful to be able to play, and he had no regrets.
“He felt like he did the best he could.”
All you can say after the read is that you hope one day he finds a little peace.
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